Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[Trader Ron]

I've been saying "it's a phantom" for two days. We'll see. I have plenty of crow in my freezer. IF we do get a hurricane, and lose my power, I can finally throw the old out.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC is very strong for Florida Penninsula.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[artist]

The Predict team has it labled as the big one.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2010.html

there isnt going to be nearly enough crow to go around if this "big one" doesn't develop or is real weak

and I have it ready just in case!

[MortisFL]

LOL, its always at the end of the run showing a FL impact...we'll have to wait and see.

[hurricaneCW]

I don't know exactly when something will form in the Caribbean but it's pretty much a guarantee that something will spin up. When you have very low pressures, high heat content, high instability, a favorable upper level pattern, and a La Nina with climatology on your side, there's a very slim chance that the Caribbean will remain empty after Matthew.

[Vortex]

12z CMC is very strong for Florida Penninsula.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

That looks like what the GFS was showing for many runs...That's in just 6 days

[SouthFloridawx]

[Vortex]

Right over South Florida



http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 95_100.gif

[Vortex]

12Z Nogaps just N of the yucatan at h180....Given how large this storm is forecasted to be by the models it should be quite impressive on the vis...might take some time to get the core going..



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[SouthFLTropics]

So the Canadians are out to destory South Florida now. The bottom line is that some models are to the east of Florida, some are to the west, and some flat out run right up the spine of the state. As someone posted last night the devil will be in the details. The fact is that there is an extremely good chance that Florida is probably in for a very windy and rainy latter part of the week. How much, where, and how strong is the big questions.

As far as track I'll go out on a limb and say that we will see a track through the state very similar to Tropical Storm Fay or Hurricane Irene...Just a gut feeling.

SFT

[dizzyfish]

It appears we aren't alone in the confusion...from NWS Tampa/Ruskin I really feel sorry for these folks.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOWING A FAIRLY DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHICH BREAKS
THE RIDGE INTO TWO PARTS TO OUR EAST AND WEST. BEYOND THAT TIME ITS
ANYBODYS GUESS AS MANY MODELS DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO OUR
SOUTH THEN MOVE IT ANYWHERE BETWEEN NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF AND
NORTHEAST TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

I HAVE FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME MEX GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO HIGH. WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND 50/50 RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

I HAVE NO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SO
MUCH IS PREDICATED ON WHAT...IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH. I
HAVE BASICALLY LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONE TO AVOID
FLIP-FLOPPING WITH EACH MODEL RUN.

[SouthFLTropics]

BTW...after looking at the visible satellite loop and speeding it up the area SSE of Jamaica looks very suspect. I think we need to pay close attention to this area of the next day or so...

Watch for this area to move off to the WNW while the monsoonal moisture slides across Panama and Costa Rica and into the Caribbean. In addition there is a good chunck or moisture over South America that is moving NW towards it as well.

SFT

[caneseddy]

So the Canadians are out to destory South Florida now. The bottom line is that some models are to the east of Florida, some are to the west, and some flat out run right up the spine of the state. As someone posted last night the devil will be in the details. The fact is that there is an extremely good chance that Florida is probably in for a very windy and rainy latter part of the week. How much, where, and how strong is the big questions.

As far as track I'll go out on a limb and say that we will see a track through the state very similar to Tropical Storm Fay or Hurricane Irene...Just a gut feeling.

SFT

I mentioned lady night that this setup gave me deja vu of Irene so I am glad I am not the only who thinks that

Canadian has shifted east from earlier to over us....hmmmm

[gatorcane]

Right over South Florida



http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 95_100.gif

GFS/CMC are over South FL in only 5-6 day timeframe now so you have to start believing are you nonbelievers!LOL ECMWF is just to the east of South FL in the 7 day timeframe.....I say there is some model consensus slowly starting to happen. Of course the GFS has slammed South FL for the past several days now, run after run...maybe a bit west of South FL, through it or a bit east...

[hurricaneCW]

That's quite shocking that the forecasters from various locations have absolutely no idea what will happen next week or if anything will even happen at all. I don't blame them, the model inconsistencies, some models form a storm, some don't, the tracks are all over the place, and the intensity is anyone's guess. A very questionable time which just makes me miss the Cape Verde season where everything was so much easier to forecast.

[Dean4Storms]

I don't think this is all that complicated really. The devil is in the details but we have to look at the overall picture and several things are certain.

1) Most models develop a closed low over the western Carib Sea.
2) The Sub- Tropical Ridge has moved to the east.
3) The Closed Low in the western Carib. begins to lift northward as the CONUS trough backs down heights along the east coast.
4) Depending on exactly where the low develops the track should be anywhere from the Big Bend area of Florida to south Florida.
5) A Hurricane is certainly possible.
6) Should occur by end of next weekend.

[gatorcane]

Are we sure what GFS develops is a new system or the LLC of Matthew that hangs around?

Hmmmm..good question. Look at the latest model guidance..I see a trend that Matthew's ghost kicks back ENE into the Western Caribbean: (note the CMC is not on there which if it develops Matthew's ghost it would be shooting it NNE)

[jinftl]

I think the extreme interest that is being generated for a system that does not exist yet is based on a couple of things:

1) the exact path and intensity may vary, but there is consistent model support...across several models...for development,

2) history has shown that development in this region this time of year has led to some of the most intense storms the basin has ever seen (think Mitch and Wilma),

3) this season has proven to be very active in terms of number of storms to date,

4) the tchp (tropical cyclone heat potential) for the nw caribbean is higher overall than in 2005....a system that could tap into this could be like a pro athlete taking steroids and setting league records,

5) climatology has proven time and again that if florida is going to be impacted by a system, this is the location it will happen this time of year....and no surprise, there are alot of us floridians on the board.

That said, there is no code yellow even from the nhc yet...individual model runs at this point that show fort myers or tampa or pensacola at risk...when you factor in the 500 mile or so margin of error this far out for a model run means that as long as any model run shows a system, everyone east of new orleans needs to keep an eye out...put another way...a hurricane threatening any of those locations would have implications across the entire state and possible heading north up the east coast.

[weatherSnoop]

So the Canadians are out to destory South Florida now.

SFT

Kinda funny there SFT...Where will they go in November if south fl is destroyed?????

[jinftl]

They will just have to convince themselves that a 40 deg F day in January is 'paradise'!!!!

So the Canadians are out to destory South Florida now.

SFT

Kinda funny there SFT...Where will they go in November if south fl is destroyed?????