Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[Vortex]

Im really starting to think that matthews LLC over central belize right now according to the close vis stalls.... then as the trough digs to the North its kicked back out over the Gulf of Honduras where additional energy from the east in combination with the monsoon trough reignites this system then heads NNE/NE..much like the canadian and last nights 00z gfs...It all makes sense if you remove matthew from the picture and just look at the forecasted synoptics...

[ronjon]

Getting pretty good model consensus now. The latest GFS, NOGAPs, ECM, and CMC all pretty much have the same idea with just slight variations in path from the central/eastern GOM (NOGAPs & GFS), to S FL (CMC) and the 00z Euro just off the SE coast of FL. All global models show low pressure developing south of Cuba in about 3 days. The guidance will soon fall into the 3-5 day range and will only get tighter on the track.

[Vortex]

From the 00z GFS...Can you imagine the size and sat pic if this verified



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

[Vortex]

12Z HWRF implies an energy transfer back over the NW carribean from possibly matthew...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[SFLcane]

12z CMC is very strong for Florida Penninsula.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

wow...signifcant TC into sfl.

[ronjon]

I think the large monsoonal gyre is taking shape now with Matthew. Look for this large circulation to stall and then slowly move east in 2-3 days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis-s.html

[Vortex]

12Z Ukmet has strengthening (matthew?) over NW carribean by H120



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal120.gif

[Vortex]

12Z ukmet Matthew or Nicole???



Loop:



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... tLoop.html

[ConvergenceZone]

Im really starting to think that matthews LLC over central belize right now according to the close vis stalls.... then as the trough digs to the North its kicked back out over the Gulf of Honduras where additional energy from the east in combination with the monsoon trough reignites this system then heads NNE/NE..much like the canadian and last nights 00z gfs...It all makes sense if you remove matthew from the picture and just look at the forecasted synoptics...

Excellent point Vortex. I'm leaning towards this too, especially since the model map just posted shows the storm originating in CA and has the feature moving towards Florida, which is exactly the landing area that the models have been suggesting..I am wondering however if this will be mentioned in a discussion soon, especially since most everyone else currently expects Nicole to originate in the NW Carib instead.

[Blown Away]

TAFB showing our new low moving NE in 72 hours with a front the the west and really one way to go, towards Florida.

[Vortex]

12Z ECM look out SFL and the Keys...looks very much like the 12Z canadian...




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP144.gif

[Vortex]

H168 over the FL keys...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP168.gif

[cycloneye]

12Z ukmet Matthew or Nicole???



Loop:



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... tLoop.html

Matthew!!

12z UKMET Text.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 87.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152010

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.09.2010 16.6N 87.6W MODERATE
00UTC 26.09.2010 17.2N 88.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2010 18.0N 90.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2010 19.0N 91.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2010 19.8N 92.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2010 19.4N 91.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2010 19.4N 89.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.09.2010 20.9N 90.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2010 20.2N 90.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2010 19.9N 89.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2010 21.0N 89.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2010 22.1N 88.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2010 25.3N 89.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[Vortex]

This Storm/Hurricane looks to have South FL all over it...

[artist]

wow! And that shows a storm approaching the Leeward islands as well.

[Vortex]

off topic.... but GFS and Euro continue to indcate possibly another cyclone forming and heading towards the Leewards...Back on topic

[Vortex]

whats concerning from H144-168 on the 12Z ECM the system only slowly moves across the lower keys...

[Blown Away]

HPC low position in 7 days.

Vortex, thanks for posting all the model runs!!

[Brent]

[Vortex]

NWS Miami snipet this afternoon:


GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS
ACROSS S FL, MAINLY FROM THE SE COAST METRO AND ALONG ALLIGATOR
ALLEY TO THE GULF COAST, FLOODING FROM RAINFALL COULD BE A GREAT CONCERN
WED THROUGH FRI - BUT THIS IS GREATLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL
SOLUTION OF THE TROPICAL ENTITY EXITING THE CARIBBEAN.