Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[tina25]

So any guesses as to when the nhc is going to mention this in the tropical weather outlook and assign the nw Caribbean a code?

I have to say the will probably mention it tomorrow or later tonight. Convection is growing in the monsoon trough axis stretched over the western caribbean. The gfs and cmc show development starting in 48 to 72 hours

I'm thinking tomorrow morning if convection continues to fire.

[Macrocane]

A very interesting excerpt from a very interesting paper:

Lander (1994b) defined the evolution of the monsoon trough into a large cyclonic vortex that became nearly circular with a radius of 2500 km in the sea-level pressure field (Fig. 8). The circulation takes on the character of a large monsoon depression such that the strongest winds are located at large distances from the center. Convection is concentrated in a large cyclonically-curved band that extends along the southern and eastern periphery of the circulation. Once the monsoon gyre has formed it tends to persist for a period of weeks. Often, the convection along the eastern periphery of the gyre is the source for many MCSs that may form into small tropical cyclones. Harr et al. (1996a) define the formation of Tropical Storm Ofelia from MCS activity associated with an active monsoon gyre. Lander (1994b) defines two distinct modes of a monsoon gyre life cycle. The first is the production of a small tropical cyclone from the periphery convection to the east of the gyre center. The second mode is the acceleration of the peripheral winds around the gyre such that the gyre itself becomes a large tropical cyclone (Fig. 9). Chen et al. (2004) indicate that nearly 70% of western North Pacific tropical cyclone formations are associated with a monsoon gyre, which is a much higher percentage than defined by Lander (1994b).

http://www.weather.nps.navy.mil/~cpchang/IWM-III/R10-B3e-Tropical%20Cyclones.pdf

[caneseddy]

So any guesses as to when the nhc is going to mention this in the tropical weather outlook and assign the nw Caribbean a code?

I have to say they will probably mention it tomorrow or later tonight. Convection is growing in the monsoon trough axis stretched over the western caribbean. The gfs and cmc show development starting in 48 to 72 hours

I think they will wait until tomorrow night or Monday morning before it's mentioned

[caneseddy]

So any guesses as to when the nhc is going to mention this in the tropical weather outlook and assign the nw Caribbean a code?

I have to say they will probably mention it tomorrow or later tonight. Convection is growing in the monsoon trough axis stretched over the western caribbean. The gfs and cmc show development starting in 48 to 72 hours

I think they will wait until tomorrow night or Monday morning before it's mentioned

[Vortex]

So any guesses as to when the nhc is going to mention this in the tropical weather outlook and assign the nw Caribbean a code?

I have to say they will probably mention it tomorrow or later tonight. Convection is growing in the monsoon trough axis stretched over the western caribbean. The gfs and cmc show development starting in 48 to 72 hours

I'm going with an invest by sunday evening..

[Vortex]

A very interesting excerpt from a very interesting paper:

Lander (1994b) defined the evolution of the monsoon trough into a large cyclonic vortex that became nearly circular with a radius of 2500 km in the sea-level pressure field (Fig. 8). The circulation takes on the character of a large monsoon depression such that the strongest winds are located at large distances from the center. Convection is concentrated in a large cyclonically-curved band that extends along the southern and eastern periphery of the circulation. Once the monsoon gyre has formed it tends to persist for a period of weeks. Often, the convection along the eastern periphery of the gyre is the source for many MCSs that may form into small tropical cyclones. Harr et al. (1996a) define the formation of Tropical Storm Ofelia from MCS activity associated with an active monsoon gyre. Lander (1994b) defines two distinct modes of a monsoon gyre life cycle. The first is the production of a small tropical cyclone from the periphery convection to the east of the gyre center. The second mode is the acceleration of the peripheral winds around the gyre such that the gyre itself becomes a large tropical cyclone (Fig. 9). Chen et al. (2004) indicate that nearly 70% of western North Pacific tropical cyclone formations are associated with a monsoon gyre, which is a much higher percentage than defined by Lander (1994b).

http://www.weather.nps.navy.mil/~cpchang/IWM-III/R10-B3e-Tropical%20Cyclones.pdf

that was a great read...

[wzrgirl1]

Thinking tomorrow also.

[gatorcane]

Getting very active across the Caribbean

[Vortex]

the thing ive noticed over the decades of watching carribean systems this time of year is that often the models lift them out to quick..I wouldnt be surprised at all if a week from now we were talking about a strengthening TS or Hurricane still south of western cuba...

[Vortex]

Getting very active across the Caribbean

this is going to be a HUGE system

[Lifesgud2]

Gator..Etc

I know its early on, however any idea if this will affect South Florida? I continue to read many different posts saying yes, then no.

[gatorcane]

Getting very active across the

this is going to be a HUGE system

Indeed it is. I'm looking closely at the area near the coastline of Belize. That is where the models seem to think the center of the broad low takes shape. Going to take a few days for this all to unfold. The low could form anywhere in the gyre.

[otowntiger]

this is going to be a HUGE system [/quote]

Huge yes, but probably not so strong based on what the models are now saying. But again what do they know?

[Vortex]

notice on the ecm ensembles at 12Z H120...folks when you see the ensembles with pressures under 1000mb there is going to be something ready for lift off..


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif

[tina25]

Huge yes, but probably not so strong based on what the models are now saying. But again what do they know?

I keep reading that we are not supposed to pay attention to the strength the models are forecasting, as it is not so accurate.

So really, this could shape up to be a low, a hurricane, or anything in between.

[gatorcane]

notice on the ecm ensembles at 12Z H120...folks when you see the ensembles with pressures under 1000mb there is going to be something ready for lift off..


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif

Yeah the ecmwf ensembles are on board with development. Model consensus is quite strong. Will be interesting to watch how this all comes together! From nothing to something in a few days........

[Vortex]

when the euro shows that I take notice..Usually the most conservative of the lot...

[Dean4Storms]

If it lifts northward and gets involved with the front it won't be much, too much shear and dry air wrapping in.

[Ivanhater]

GFS Ensembles...mostly Panhandle westward

[Vortex]

18Z GFS ensembles at H144..near SW FL..I must be looking at the wrong thing Ivan




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal144.gif