WHat are you expecting out of this;it would be nice to have dome pro met opinion on what's going to transpire next week

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SouthFloridawx wrote:A lot of moisture in the Caribbean tonight. That upper level low creating a lot of showers and thunderstorms. Nogaps was showing something developing to the East of Jamaica. I wonder if this is where that energy might originate from? Good thing that Matthew didn't have more time over the water. Probably would have been much more serious than it was.
caneseddy wrote:AJC,
WHat are you expecting out of this; it would be nice to have dome pro met opinion on what's going to transpire next week
.LONG TERM (TUE THROUGH FRI)...EYES WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE
AJC3 wrote:caneseddy wrote:AJC,
WHat are you expecting out of this; it would be nice to have dome pro met opinion on what's going to transpire next week
Honestly? I can't say too much with a heck of a lot of confidence at this point. I'm certainly not going to get into any specifics....much, much too early, especially given the variance in model solutions, and somewhat sketchy continuity.
I mean, seriously...you have operational model runs at odds with their respective ensembles....Not good for forecast confidence! You have solutions from the global op-models that differ in strength, placement, and speed of whatever comes out of the Caribbean....Again, not confidence-inspiring.
What you want to look at is the big picture and forecast with a broad brush this early in the game. Let's look at what I would consider the most salient points - what we DO have somewhat of a consensus on.
(1) Some sort of low pressure forming in the western Caribbean
(2) It will probably have a large circulation;
(3) Rather slow development [likely a function of (2), given the favorable conditions in the NW Caribbean];
(4) Solutions that in general, tend to bracket the state of Florida;
(5) A boatload of QPF is in the model fields - no surprise here;
(6) Baroclinic interaction late in the game (north of 25N, and likely even moreso up near 30N)
What can you take from all that? Well, probably not a heck of a lot more than I spelled out. It seems there's a better than average chance this will pass, at the very least, close to Florida, in whatever form it takes.
While (2) and (3) often suggest that a rapid spinup is not as likely, I wouldn't put any money on that given the high oceanic heat content of the NW Caribbean and the seemingly favorable conditions aloft. The system will likely be very wet, given it's projected size and slow movement early on. However, we can't be sure where the heaviest rain will fall (though Cuba and the Caymans look to be under the gun).
You can try and get more specific than that, but until there's a better consensus, and continuity (which isn't gonna happen until this thing starts to spin up in a few days), you'll just be setting yourself up for error. I wouldn't dream of trying to differentiate forecasting a weak TS versus a major hurricane, 2-5 inches versus 10+ for any particular area, or what kind of wind, surge or tornadic threat there might or might not be at this point.
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