Convection Still Quite Unstable in Wave East of Antilles
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wxman57
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Convection Still Quite Unstable in Wave East of Antilles
That convection which fired up around 15N/50W last night has decreased considerably this morning. I can't see much evidence of rotation (from home). It appears no better organized than 2 days ago. Certainly no TD today and probably not tomorrow. It's just not strong enough to get an "Invest" assigned to it. Convection is too transitory.
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Yeah, I was just about to say that we now know why the invest wasn't put up. No circulation. Looks like the wave axis is about 50W, and last night it seemed to get shoved westward, disrupting its attempt at any organization. I think it should begin to get organized today sometime, but no TD today. Maybe late tomorrow or Thursday. Cheers!!
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cycloneye
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I dont see this develop before it arrives into the caribbean sea because it is very disorganized now.But the important thing about it is the trend of waves to not develop east of the islands.The past waves and TD's that were east of the islands in past weeks were moving very fast and dry air was not on their favor.But this wave had all in favor less dry air,moving more slower 10-15 mph,sst's more warmer west of 45w,no shear (But maybe some east shear).So what is the explanation about what is going on that waves dont develop as conditions are favorable.
And who said this wave was a fish?Well UKMET had it not passed 55w and turned it north yesterday at the 00z run,GFS has fliped-floped a lot with this on the track sometimes fish and other times slamming into the caribbean. But the reallity is that the islands will recieve a well needed rainfall but nothing more.
And who said this wave was a fish?Well UKMET had it not passed 55w and turned it north yesterday at the 00z run,GFS has fliped-floped a lot with this on the track sometimes fish and other times slamming into the caribbean. But the reallity is that the islands will recieve a well needed rainfall but nothing more.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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wxman57
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Fish
When the models show a system recurving before the Caribbean, the general assumption is that it wil DEVELOP east of the Caribbean. But a weaker system (wave) will not be steered by the same flow, so it'll just keep propagating westward. This means an increasing chance for a threat to the southeast U.S. should it develop later (see my signature).
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