Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

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SouthFloridawx
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#681 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 25, 2010 10:56 pm

ROCK wrote:thats at 850mb..prefer 500mb...just my preference.... :D

I am tracking for organization/vorticity near the surface... That's why I am using the 850mb Vort. Often times, I think it's better than looking at the MSLP maps. Though, I agree that green is nice. Not sure why they picked yellow, lol.

Here, run this loop and you'll see what I mean...
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=09%2F26%2F2010+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=850_vort_ht&model=GFS&area=WNATL&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&areaDesc=Western+North+Atlantic+-+Southeast+US%2C+Central+America%2C+Caribbean&fcast=Loop+All
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#682 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 10:57 pm

H54 TD/Nicole begins to slowly deepen...North of eastern honduras..



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#683 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 25, 2010 10:57 pm

Getting organized @54hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_054m.gif
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#684 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 25, 2010 10:58 pm

57 Hours
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#685 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 25, 2010 10:59 pm

that cut off low is existing now to the NE....didnt stick around long...at 54hr
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#686 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Sep 25, 2010 10:59 pm

Upper low (500mb) is swinging NE @ Hour 54 as well...
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#687 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:00 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Upper low (500mb) is swinging NE @ Hour 54 as well...


:wink: nice... :uarrow:
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#688 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:00 pm

But, if you guys really want green... I'll give you green. :D
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#689 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:01 pm

69 Hours 700mb, with fancy windbarbs
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Last edited by SouthFloridawx on Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#690 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:01 pm

:uarrow: 700mb shows a lot. Post it.
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#691 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:03 pm

H60 a little deeper..a slow NNE movement..


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal060.gif
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#692 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:05 pm

here you go Steve...66hr

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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#693 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:05 pm

81 Hours
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#694 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:05 pm

H72 were in business..Hello Nicole..slow NNE movement south of western cuba...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal072.gif
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Re:

#695 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:06 pm

Vortex wrote:H72 were in business..Hello Nicole..slow NNE movement south of western cuba...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal072.gif

Starting to elongate..........good news...
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#696 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:09 pm

Couple of lows hanging around there.
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#697 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:09 pm

Shear should be an issue IMO. Looks similar to a Michelle 2001 event. Perhaps I'm wrong. :ggreen:
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#698 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:10 pm

I hope this ends up being nothing more then a massive rain storm. No tropical storms or hurricanes for me :)
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#699 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:11 pm

108
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#700 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:12 pm

just a strung out rain event.....that is good news..

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