Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[gatorcane]

Headed for south florida yet again.....there is some shear but we all know what happened with Wilma which was supposed to get sheared.

[Vortex]

H102 moving over keys...looks to fast..will leave another peice of energy behind and spawn another cyclone is my hunch...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

117

[SouthFloridawx]

H102 moving over keys...looks to fast..will leave another peice of energy behind and spawn another cyclone is my hunch...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

Wasn't it doing that before?

[Ivanhater]

Shear is ripping across S Florida..starting to get consistency in models showing a strung out low pressure getting torn apart. The news is getting better

[SFLcane]

Headed for south florida yet again.....there is some shear but we all know what happened with Wilma which was supposed to get sheared.

Indeed...Hopefully this turns to be a windy/rainy event. I'am afraid the flooding potential around metro dade/broward counties good get quite serious.

[Vortex]

this would produce a serious flood event, and possibly quite a tornado outbreak on the east side looking at the shear values...

Im not sold on it moving out of the carribean this quickly...This is the biggest problem with models is wantin to move it out to quickly..

[Wthrman13]

I've labelled the 6-Day Pressure forecasts, in millibars, for each of the 5 different models, with your C-Gem the lowest, (most developed), pressure of 992 mb; & your UKM, (the least developed), & the highest pressure of 1003 mb over the Central Gulf of Mexico. So there you see....anywhere's from a low-end tropical storm to a high-end tropical storm, coming from the pressure output in the models' grid domains.

I just wanted to point out that most of the global models have a resolution too coarse to properly resolve a tropical cyclone's inner core, and so will almost always have a central pressure that is too high, even for what is otherwise a well-developed TC in the model. This is a general rule of thumb. However, the ECMWF is getting close, and if I remember with Earl, several runs had a forecasted central pressure that was much lower than the real storm attained (something like 905 mb).

Otherwise, this storm-to-be is going to be an absolutely fascinating one to watch from a meteorological perspective. And make no mistake, something is going to come out of this: you don't get this kind of model consistency and agreement without something happening. Whether it is some sort of subtropical system that transitions to pure tropical, or the reverse, it is going to be pretty interesting.

[Vortex]

*if* this type of sceanrio played out youd have 35-50 mph winds across a wide region, flood event, and high tornado threat with the high shear values...

[srainhoutx]

this would produce a serious flood event, and possibly quite a tornado outbreak on the east side looking at the shear values...

Im not sold on it moving out of the carribean this quickly...This is the biggest problem with models is wantin to move it out to quickly..

The Upper Low has been the key to moving this out of the Caribbean. Keep an eye on that feature...

[gatorcane]

Shear is ripping across S Florida..starting to get consistency in models showing a strung out low pressure getting torn apart. The news is getting

Perhaps ivanhater but I'm sure the charts were similar for Wilma and look what happened.....

Still the euro is showing something similar. Right now my best guess would be a sheared messy tropical storm with a lot of rain and some wind for somebody in Florida.

[Vortex]

3 for the price of 1


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

[Ivanhater]

Shear is ripping across S Florida..starting to get consistency in models showing a strung out low pressure getting torn apart. The news is getting

Perhaps ivanhater but I'm sure the charts were similar for Wilma and look what happened.....

Still the euro is showing something similar. Right now my best guess would be a sheared messy tropical storm with a lot of rain and some wind for somebody in Florida.

That's a good bet..I still think a big one will come out of the Caribbean, but I don't think this is the one yet.

[Vortex]

If this plays out this way, id almost gurantee you in early october that another system forms on the tail end...

[srainhoutx]

If this plays out this way, id almost gurantee you in early october that another system forms on the tail end...

All systems look go for the next couple of weeks. Favorable MJO pulse, strongest of the season mind you. A gyre across the CA region that shows no sign of stopping. I'd keep an eye on it !

[SouthFloridawx]

That would be very bad news... after the major trough pulls out.

[cycloneye]

Shear is ripping across S Florida..starting to get consistency in models showing a strung out low pressure getting torn apart. The news is getting

Perhaps ivanhater but I'm sure the charts were similar for Wilma and look what happened.....

Still the euro is showing something similar. Right now my best guess would be a sheared messy tropical storm with a lot of rain and some wind for somebody in Florida.

That's a good bet..I still think a big one will come out of the Caribbean, but I don't think this is the one yet.

Ivan,I dont know if you saw this earlier,but the predict team labled this as the "Big One".

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2010.html

[SFLcane]

ECMWF/GFS seem to have come into some agreement that upper conditions aren't going to be to friendly for this tropical low. May turn out to be just a rain maker for florida.

[dwsqos2]

Each successive run of the gfs has been weaker and weaker. I am sensing another dud.

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[Vortex]

and here comes otto into sfl next weekend....




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif