Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[gatorcane]

The no gaps is slower and more left. Would be ineresting what the gfdl and hwrf show. This should be an invest by tomorrow evening so tomorrow at this time we will see what those models do with it.

[SouthFLTropics]

That is a heck of a front that the models are showing...Temps across the midwest should see a pretty good drop next week. Fall is definitely on its way.

SFT

[SouthFloridawx]

Sorry posted the 60 Hr 12Z CMC... it's 60 hr 00Z isn't out yet.

Here is the 00Z CMC @ 48 Hours....

[SouthFloridawx]

Yep that 0 Degree line @ 850mb, moves into the Northeast...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_168l.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

CMC @ 72hrs

96 Hours

120 Hours

[SouthFloridawx]

Outta here into the SE @ 132
http://img829.imageshack.us/img829/1103/00054g1northamericazoom.jpg

[SouthFloridawx]

156 Nogaps

And Still Hanging out at 180

[Vortex]

The latest canadian looks very Irene like....

[SouthFloridawx]

Nogaps looks like it's spitting out some low's... with the main circulation still hanging back. A bit like gfs...

[ericinmia]

Oh the drama...

I love how people can jump from "OMG THIS IS GOING TO BE INSANE" to... "Shows over..." in a matter of days, or handful of model runs. Wilma was pegged to be ripped apart on it's way to SFLa, up until just before the end... and that didn't occur, it became 'ventilated' by the shear. Whether this is a rain event or a "Big One!" as PREDICT had it lableled... lol... who knows. But let's just be here for the science, not the middle school drama and "oooooohhhh I need to make a comment, so I'm on record with my feeling of the hour" (pissing contest). Mind you, do you all notice the poor 'newbies' that come in and see these comments without disclaimers and get VERY confused? Let's all be a little more mature and topic appropriate.

To be Honest, for me: The "Storm Cancel" comments get old MUCH faster than the "OMG this is going to be insane..." ones.

Please remember to watch your wording and what you say, as people reading your thoughts may interpret them and think that you are "in the know" when in reality your just throwing comments out without a diploma or even concrete basis behind them. If you watch, even our wonderful MET's are very careful in their wording!
-Eric

[Vortex]

if the gfs pans out there will be quite a severe threat with tornadic cells racing across the peninsula...flooding rains will also be a concern as well as tropical storm force winds over a large area....

[SouthFLTropics]

Oh the drama...

I love how people can jump from "OMG THIS IS GOING TO BE INSANE" to... "Shows over..." in a matter of days, or handful of model runs. Wilma was pegged to be ripped apart on it's way to SFLa, up until just before the end... and that didn't occur, it became 'ventilated' by the shear. Whether this is a rain event or a "Big One!" as PREDICT had it lableled... lol... who knows. But let's just be here for the science, not the middle school drama and "oooooohhhh I need to make a comment, so I'm on record with my feeling of the hour" (pissing contest). Mind you, do you all notice the poor 'newbies' that come in and see these comments without disclaimers and get VERY confused? Let's all be a little more mature and topic appropriate.

To be Honest, for me: The "Storm Cancel" comments get old MUCH faster than the "OMG this is going to be insane..." ones.

Please remember to watch your wording and what you say, as people reading your thoughts may interpret them and think that you are "in the know" when in reality your just throwing comments out without a diploma or even concrete basis behind them. If you watch, even our wonderful MET's are very careful in their wording!
-Eric

Very well said Eric...I agree with this 110%.

SFT

[Vortex]

Btw, the vorticity I was watching on the vis all day near 17/85 is firing deep convection...this is where I expect developments to begin as do many of the models

[boca]

Btw, the vorticity I was watching on the vis all day near 17/85 is firing deep convection...this is where I expect developments to begin as do many of the models

On sat you can see black tops starting to fire up along the Honduras coastline.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

[CourierPR]

It appears as if the energy from Matthew is transferring east into the Caribbean.

[South Texas Storms]

no mention at the 1am tropical weather outlook.

[boca]

It appears as if the energy from Matthew is transferring east into the Caribbean.

I'm watching that area around 17n and 85w which vortex mentioned earlier. CourierPR I think your right about the moisture from Matthew trasferring over to the Caribbean.

[ericinmia]

Btw, the vorticity I was watching on the vis all day near 17/85 is firing deep convection...this is where I expect developments to begin as do many of the models

On sat you can see black tops starting to fire up along the Honduras coastline.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

Cool! You can start to see the new 'entity' taking shape, separate from the Matthew convection. There is quite a lot of moisture out there to work with...

[boca]

Ericinmia I hope this doesn't turn into something devestating to the state of Florida.We don't need something like Wilma again.Thats still fresh in my mind like it was yesterday.\ hour by hour.

[ericinmia]

Ericinmia I hope this doesn't turn into something devestating to the state of Florida.We don't need something like Wilma again.Thats still fresh in my mind like it was yesterday.\ hour by hour.

Yeah, me too....
I spent a fair amount of time just cleaning up around the house today, and will tomorrow too... (I needed to do it anyway lol)

It's really up in the air; if the storm can bundle all of it's energy we may have something to really watch out for, otherwise we will just end up with the ton of rain it appears we'll get either way. I personally am leaning toward this being only a wet TS. (But, that is just my opinion.) I don't think it will be able to 'bundle' the energy of the basin into a concise & tight 'typical' storm... but we'll see. It has the moisture, MJO, and a favorable upper air environment for it to work with prior to the front's arrival. And I still remember Derek telling us that sometimes a frontal 'shear jet' can actually 'vent' a storm and help it... but that the current technology is not advanced enough to predict that because timing and position have to be just right. We'll see, and know more by Sunday-Monday night I think. I am VERY interested to see what the GFDL and HWRF do with this once it's classified and they start running those models!!! Because of their enhanced resolution grid over the storm we should be able to see finer detail on strength and orginization, with the probable size of this storm... Path isn't such a problem. lol (Florida is going to be affected in some fashion, no matter what.)