ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[SunnyFla]

ha , ha--split personality--like this:

[Typhoon_Willie]

He he...Yeah just like that!

[Sanibel]

The models say get back to them on the 28th.

[WeatherGuesser]

4AM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY MONDAY NIGHT.


Taps anyone?



Too early yet, right?

[breaking wind]

Anyone else believe their is a real possibility the computers are just seeing a ghost forming off the yucatan in a few days???

[rog]

The fat lady is singing goodbye to matthew.

[Shuriken]

It's instructive to remember that the TD/remnant of Hurricane Mitch took a personal tour of every mountain in Honduras, Guatemala and southeastern Mexico, and still managed to pull out of it intact enough to reform when it eventually took off northeast...in the first week of November:



20 16.90 -83.10 10/26/18Z 155 905 HURRICANE-5
21 17.20 -83.80 10/27/00Z 155 910 HURRICANE-5
22 17.30 -84.40 10/27/06Z 150 917 HURRICANE-5
23 17.10 -85.00 10/27/12Z 150 922 HURRICANE-5
24 16.90 -85.40 10/27/18Z 145 928 HURRICANE-5
25 16.60 -85.60 10/28/00Z 140 933 HURRICANE-5
26 16.30 -85.60 10/28/06Z 130 938 HURRICANE-4
27 16.30 -85.60 10/28/12Z 115 948 HURRICANE-4
28 16.30 -85.70 10/28/18Z 95 959 HURRICANE-2
29 16.20 -85.80 10/29/00Z 85 970 HURRICANE-2
30 16.10 -85.80 10/29/06Z 75 979 HURRICANE-1
31 15.90 -85.70 10/29/12Z 70 987 HURRICANE-1
32 15.80 -85.60 10/29/18Z 60 994 TROPICAL STORM
33 15.60 -85.70 10/30/00Z 55 995 TROPICAL STORM
34 15.40 -85.90 10/30/06Z 50 996 TROPICAL STORM
35 15.20 -86.10 10/30/12Z 45 997 TROPICAL STORM
36 14.90 -86.50 10/30/18Z 45 998 TROPICAL STORM
37 14.70 -87.00 10/31/00Z 45 999 TROPICAL STORM
38 14.50 -87.70 10/31/06Z 40 1000 TROPICAL STORM
39 14.50 -88.50 10/31/12Z 35 1000 TROPICAL STORM
40 14.60 -89.20 10/31/18Z 30 1001 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
41 14.60 -90.00 11/01/00Z 30 1002 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
42 14.70 -90.80 11/01/06Z 25 1003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
43 14.90 -91.50 11/01/12Z 25 1005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
44 15.50 -92.20 11/01/18Z 25 1005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
45 16.30 -92.70 11/02/00Z 20 1005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
46 17.10 -93.10 11/02/06Z 20 1005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
47 17.90 -93.40 11/02/12Z 20 1005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48 18.70 -93.70 11/02/18Z 20 1005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
49 19.20 -93.40 11/03/00Z 20 1003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
50 19.30 -92.70 11/03/06Z 20 1003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
51 19.40 -92.10 11/03/12Z 25 1002 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
52 19.60 -91.40 11/03/18Z 40 997 TROPICAL STORM
53 20.00 -90.60 11/04/00Z 35 997 TROPICAL STORM
54 20.80 -89.60 11/04/06Z 30 998 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
55 21.80 -88.20 11/04/12Z 40 998 TROPICAL STORM
56 23.30 -86.50 11/04/18Z 40 993 TROPICAL STORM
57 24.80 -84.80 11/05/00Z 45 993 TROPICAL STORM
58 25.60 -83.10 11/05/06Z 50 990 TROPICAL STORM
59 26.60 -81.30 11/05/12Z 55 987 TROPICAL STORM
60 27.50 -78.30 11/05/18Z 50 992 EXTRATROPICAL STORM

[xironman]

The fat lady is singing goodbye to matthew.

Not sure, I think we are going have the remnants of Matt or parts of him for a long time.

[Shuriken]

Wow...look at that onshore flow in the EPAC southeast of the storm. They are going to get slammed down there by flooding.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html

[GCANE]

Amazing to see how well the core and LLC are holding up.

[SunnyFla]

So is the yellow blob the NHC shows at 10% the remnants of Matthew or is this something else entirely? (still learning--thanks)

[cycloneye]

So is the yellow blob the NHC shows at 10% the remnants of Matthew or is this something else entirely? (still learning--thanks)

Is for a new area in the NW Caribbean.

[Air Force Met]

Amazing to see how well the core and LLC are holding up.

Please see the post over in talkin' tropics. The LLC is not holding up. That satellite winds image is a pure work of fiction. Look at this image:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-90&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=6&map=latlon

The LLC is pretty much finished and if you look at that look...you will see the wind field from the satellite and the sfc obs (not on that loop of course) look nothing like the pic you posted.

Take those images with an extreme grain of salt. They are almost NEVER accurate with weak systems.

[Air Force Met]

Anyone else believe their is a real possibility the computers are just seeing a ghost forming off the yucatan in a few days???

The possibility is real. It's not Matthew...it will be Nicole. The last advisory on Matthew will probably be issued at 10 AM this morning.

[SunnyFla]

So is the yellow blob the NHC shows at 10% the remnants of Matthew or is this something else entirely? (still learning--thanks)

Is for a new area in the NW Caribbean.

Thanks! Could this be what some people are saying the models are showing...possibly coming towards the Panhandle or somewhere in Florida in the next 7 days or so?

[icecoldtexan]

So is the yellow blob the NHC shows at 10% the remnants of Matthew or is this something else entirely? (still learning--thanks)

Is for a new area in the NW Caribbean.

Thanks! Could this be what some people are saying the models are showing...possibly coming towards the Panhandle or somewhere in Florida in the next 7 days or so?

I wouldn't waste my time with or worry about any forecast more than 5 or 6 hours in the future, anything more is just a joke.

[vbhoutex]

Anyone else believe their is a real possibility the computers are just seeing a ghost forming off the yucatan in a few days???

The possibility is real. It's not Matthew...it will be Nicole. The last advisory on Matthew will probably be issued at 10 AM this morning.

Ok, I guess I can buy that Matthew is gone. But it still looks like there is a huge gyre/low pressure area that is Matthew's leftovers that is stretching from the EPAC to the NW Caribbean. So why would this be Nicole if it forms or am I looking in the wrong place or just completely wrong here?

[mf_dolphin]

David I think that there would have to be some identifiable part of Matthew (LLC or MLC) to regenerate in order to still be considered a continuation.

[SunnyFla]

Thanks! Could this be what some people are saying the models are showing...possibly coming towards the Panhandle or somewhere in Florida in the next 7 days or so?[/quote]

I wouldn't waste my time with or worry about any forecast more than 5 or 6 hours in the future, anything more is just a joke.[/quote]


Not worrying or wasting my time with forecast just wondering if there will be something here to track

[sunnyday]

This is not a forecast of any kind, but I can't see how Matthew can do anything to Florida if he doesn't exist!