Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[SouthFLTropics]

I believe we are in the eclipse right now...Does anyone know what time it ends tonight? Also, the Euro should be running any minute...

SFT

[dwsqos2]

The Euro is anemic as well. I'm beginning to think that the thread title should be changed to "Potential Florida Rain Event."

[fci]

I share Eric's frustration with the "storm cancel" comments.
They add NOTHING to this thread and forum.
All they do is waste space and allow some of you to later say "I told you so".
Big deal.
None of us can say "I told you so" because none of us know!
So how about everyone stop with the "The Big One" or "Storm Cancel" or "Nothing here to see" or "Just a rain event" and just WATCH IT UNFOLD or NOT!!
Let the Pro Mets tell us THEIR interpretation of what is going on.
Save the comments for what you observe from the models or things you see that maybe others don't see or don't understand from looking at model output.
Off of my soapbox and to bed since we are destined to have some late nights ahead.

And thank you to the Pro Mets who have come into this thread to help and to Vortex and others who OBJECTIVELY provide us with what the models are saying!!!

[rog]

Well said,fci.

I share Eric's frustration with the "storm cancel" comments.
They add NOTHING to this thread and forum.
All they do is waste space and allow some of you to later say "I told you so".
Big deal.
None of us can say "I told you so" because none of us know!
So how about everyone stop with the "The Big One" or "Storm Cancel" or "Nothing here to see" or "Just a rain event" and just WATCH IT UNFOLD or NOT!!
Let the Pro Mets tell us THEIR interpretation of what is going on.
Save the comments for what you observe from the models or things you see that maybe others don't see or don't understand from looking at model output.
Off of my soapbox and to bed since we are destined to have some late nights ahead.

And thank you to the Pro Mets who have come into this thread to help and to Vortex and others who OBJECTIVELY provide us with what the models are saying!!!

[MortisFL]

Alot of the models still showing a system developing in the NW caribbean affecting FL in about 5 days. At the least alot of moisture on the way.

[jlauderdal]

Alot of the models still showing a system developing in the NW caribbean affecting FL in about 5 days. At the least alot of moisture on the way.

yep, looks like an event for the peninsula, panhandle certainly looks to be in good shape especially with that deep trough materializing

[cycloneye]

Snipet from this mornings Melbourne NWS Discussion.

WED-SAT...MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK INTO EARLY WEEKEND WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH OUT OF
THE CARIBBEAN AND TOWARDS FLORIDA. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL
LOOKS QUITE UNREASONABLE FOR THE LONG RANGE AS IT DEVELOPS A SERIES
OF LOWS TOWARD FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND IS MUCH FASTER
THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSISTENT WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW TOWARDS AND JUST EAST OF SOUTH FL BUT HAS
SLOWED DOWN ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION.

GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL NO INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
FORECASTED TROPICAL SYSTEM FOR THE MODELS TO GRAB ONTO...CONFIDENCE
IN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO TRACK AND NORTHWARD SPEED
REMAINS LOW. WILL THEREFORE STICK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NOW
WITH RAIN CHANCES AROUND 40% AND TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

[cycloneye]

From Key West NWS Discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
413 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A COMPLEX SCENARIO WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A SIGNIFICANT LONGWAVE TROUGH
LINGERING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN ITS WAKE. THIS TROUGH SHOULD
DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO NORTH OR CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MIDWEEK.
MEANWHILE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING POTENTIAL INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGH
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE EVENTUALLY BRINGS A LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHWARD
TOWARD CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACKS STILL
VARY GREATLY. AS THERE IS NOT YET AN IDENTIFIABLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE GUIDANCE MUST CONTINUE TO BE VIEWED
SOMEWHAT SKEPTICALLY AT THIS POINT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT AT THE
MINIMUM A LARGE MASS OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED
NORTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ALONG WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

[jdray]

if the gfs pans out there will be quite a severe threat with tornadic cells racing across the peninsula...flooding rains will also be a concern as well as tropical storm force winds over a large area....

And this is what concerns me most. Rather than a few hours of high winds and concern, we get a major tornadic event type setup that will hang out.

[cycloneye]

HPC early morning preliminary discussion.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
320 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

VALID 12Z THU SEP 30 2010 - 12Z SUN OCT 03 2010


USED THE 00Z/26 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR
DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN SYNC WITH ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND BOTH HAVE SHOWN STRONG CONTINUITY FOR SEVERAL
RUNS NOW. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN AS STABLE...NOR THE GEM GLOBAL AND
UKMET. THE CURRENT GEM GLOBAL TAKES A TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH THE OTHER MODELS HERDING IT INTO THE
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE UPCOMING PATTERN
IS THE FLIP SIDE TO THE ONE OF THE LAST FEW MONTHS...WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST.


CISCO

[cycloneye]

TAFB latest 72 hour forecast.

[MortisFL]

Yep, TAFB thinking about 48 hrs until that low develops.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MATTHEW...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
LITTLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI

[jlauderdal]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MATTHEW...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
LITTLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI

interesting to see they are latching on to the idea we did yesterday, they must be watching this thread...

[CourierPR]

I would think the NHC would be pressing to declare an Invest out of this. I know I would certainly appreciate it if they would sometime this morning or at least today.
Maybe we'll get lucky and have Lixion or Stacy on duty today!

I think it's only a matter of time.

[lonelymike]

Now some people are mad at the NHC because they haven't declared an invest? I guess that 4 years of meterology education doesn't mean anything compared to the wisdom found in some of the posters around here.

[Air Force Met]

Now some people are mad at the NHC because they haven't declared an invest? I guess that 4 years of meterology education doesn't mean anything compared to the wisdom found in some of the posters around here.

The biggest problem on this board at times is lack of patience.

I have posted on it a few times in the last few years. One of the big diffs b/w an amateur met and a pro-met is patience. Just like yesterday when many were getting geeked up on Matthew making a turn (when models and mets have been clearly pointing out the likely scenario is dissipation and a new reformation NEXT week). Now we see that Matthew's track really never went NW...it was just track error. It will die over Southern Mexico. Now we see new convection with the trof over the NW carib.

PATIENCE. You can't have an invest until you have a fairly decent idea where to put it...and right now...its just a trof. Give it some time. You don't need an invest to look at the global models and see the story they are telling you.

[GCANE]

The steering seems to indicate the gyre is in place.

Given the fact the core and LLC is still amazingly well structured, I think there is some chance he could circulate back into the Gulf of Honduras.

Unstable air and afternoon surface heating should keep convection firing over the Yucatan.

CAPE still over 4000 at 25N 85W.

[GCANE]

NCEP ensembles seem to be tightening up on it.

[bvigal]

W Carb always a 'ripe' area this time of year. Have all the faith in the world in the experienced folks at NHC, keeping in mind that Mother Nature can be unpredictable, models are only as good as the quality and amount of input, which is very limited in many parts of the basin, the value of experienced hurricane forecasters is their ability to sift through gobs of information and decide what is credible and what isn't, and these guys aren't expected to be 100% accurate 100% of the time! For those just out of school or interning well, they are gaining a lot of experience this season, and the sooner the better. With more and more commercial agencies willing to pay so much money for hurricane specialists, it may become difficult for NHC to maintain a good supply of dedicated, seasoned pros.

As I posted elsewhere, been re-reading The Ship And The Storm, about Hurricane Mitch, an agonizing experience, to say the least, for NHC, as the models were more than useless for the biggest stretch of the storm's most deadly period. It mentions on p72 that in best of times, Central America only had 9 weather stations capable of launching weather balloons to collect atmosperic data, and at the time, 6 were not operational, and the other 3 were sending data only every 3 or 4 days. The capital of Honduras, Tegucigalpa, hadn't sent in a report for a month. Also sending nothing were Belize, Cuba, Merida Mexico, Nicaragua, Guatemala, and El Salvador. I've seen this attitude in the E Caribbean, too. It's ironic that the same national leaders who deem routine, accurate data submission as very low on the totem pole, or completely unneccesary, are always the first big mouths to complain loud and long if some storm comes calling and they didn't get a perfect track forecast 5 days ahead by the NHC!

I wonder where in W Carib balloons are being launched today?