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Vortex wrote:12Z NAM looks to move a Strong TS/Hurricane right over SFL Wednesday evening...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif
Air Force Met wrote: I just looked at the satellite...and it is really coming together near 17.5/83. There is some really good mid level vorticity there. I noticed the low pressures this morning.
tina25 wrote:It seems to be inevitable that something is heading towards FL. Now my concern is how strong and where. Will it head towards the east, west, or right through the middle? Will it be a messy rain event, or a moderate TS/Hurricane? Too many questions and uncertainties!
The next few days will definitely be interesting.
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Sunday, September 26, 2010 925 am EDT/825 am CDT
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Tropical Depression Matthew:
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Matthew has tracked into southeastern Mexico this morning. Deep convection across southeastern Mexico and northern portions of Central America are producing very heavy rainfall and the threat is there for flash flooding and mudslides across these areas. Matthew is likely to dissipate within the next day or two and what is left of this system will become embedded within a monsoonal low pressure system that will be located over the northwestern Caribbean sea. This entire mess will likely spawn the development of a new tropical cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean in about 2 to 3 days….more on that in the next section…..
The Caribbean Sea Of Confusion:
The western part of the Caribbean is one big mess of convection this morning thanks to the interaction between what is left of Matthew, a monsoonal low pressure system and energy that is advecting northward from the eastern Pacific. This is a very complex and fairly unusual tropical weather pattern that is going to unfold this week across the Caribbean.
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caneman wrote:I'm assuming on that model run when you say South Florida you are including parts of West Florida (Naples)??
Thanks for posting your insight on this thread wxman57 and this board in general as always. One question: do you have a feel for what strength of this system will be when (or if) it moves toward Florida?wxman57 wrote:Surface pressures are already quite low in the western Caribbean (1007-1009mb). Lowest pressure is north of Honduras/east of Belize. Banding is starting to show up on satellite imagery, and it's not Matthew's circulation. I'd say there's plenty there to initiate an invest. Development is looking likely, probably in 48-72 hrs. Northward track toward Florida and possibly into or along the East U.S. Coast seems like a good bet.
And I don't think this will be the last of the storms forming there. Low pressures will continue across the region. This may be the 2nd of 3 or 4 storms that form there over the next 2 weeks. Time for Florida's hurricane season.
Vortex wrote:1415Z hi-res vis indicates strong inflow developing into the base of the vorticity...
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