Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[AdamFirst]

Interesting scenario developing...I haven't watched the local news lately so I don't know how they're reacting. It's going to be a very interesting week upcoming.

[Vortex]

BTW, Euro also agrees...ok back to part 1


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif

[SunnyThoughts]

Hopefully this/these storm/storms stay weak, but even if they do, still ALOT of rain more than likely, and doesn't take much wind really to knock out power, can't imagine having power outages with the first storm, get the power back on and boom...power outages again from the 2nd storm.

[Vortex]

This all happens in just 10 days...

[SFLcane]

I dont buy the 2-3 storms the GFS has developing likely convective issues. Again this looks like a flooding event for parts of florida. Nothing we haven't already seen this summer as far as flooding.

[wzrgirl1]

This all happens in just 10 days...

In 10 days......or within 10 days?

[ConvergenceZone]

I dont buy the 2-3 storms the GFS has developing likely convective issues. Again this looks like a flooding event for parts of florida. Nothing we haven't already seen this summer as far as flooding.

Yep, even if the storm isn't very strong. lots of heavy rain. At least we have lots of people in Florida on this board to give us updates on the rain, as I'm curious what the incredible rainfall totals may be.

[MortisFL]

Like 5 days away from storm #1...and the jury is still out on that one. I do think at the least it will bring moisture across the state.

[Kyuuubi]

part 2 another storm/hurricane for south FL within a week?



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal240.gif

I hope not... I know that the area around Jupiter and Ft Pierce got hit twice in 2 weeks by Francis and Jean and they were both at least cat 2 at landfall. Not my idea of fun.

Also I'm beginning to see what looks like a low pressure center here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html
In the last few frames. I assume thats what was being referenced earlier?

[Vortex]

I dont buy the 2-3 storms the GFS has developing likely convective issues. Again this looks like a flooding event for parts of florida. Nothing we haven't already seen this summer as far as flooding.

I might agree but it also has support from the euro....

[KWT]

It makes perfect sense for there to be several systems develop, its what happens when you have a Monsoonal trough in place, thats why 2005 was so insane because that featuere was about for most of the season, October in 2005 produced 7 storms and thats why...I bet we get at least another 2-3 AFTER this system is done from that region, whether they are strong or not remains to be seen though.

[KWT]

CMC shows something close to what the 0z ECM did and nearly stalls the system near Florida between 120-144hrs but remains over the waters and so strengthens...

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal144.gif

[MortisFL]

I think the panhandle will be fine, but south florida will have to contend with a surge of moisture mid-late next week.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[artist]

ok, PRO METS, please help me here. I have seen it mentioned that a monsoon gyre is setting up in the caribbean, which is noramlly a pacific type event (thought it does show this is being pulled up from the pacific) and typically a western pacific type event. And from what I have researched, with a setup such as this, there is a high probability of there being multiple vortices circulating within this gyre. Am I correct? And from what I have read these can be anything from tornadoes to multiple degrees of cyclones. Is this also correct? And if so, is this why some of the models are sensing multiple vortices, and thus also why this is such a difficult forecast? Would this also explain the early mentions from the local NWS offices as well as the NHC for all eyes in Florida to pay attention to the NHC this week?

[psyclone]

i defintely agree we'll get more than one storm from this setup as the "caribbean cannon" is loaded. the question i have is once a circulation develops, will it gain any longitude as it heads north? if not, then portions of western peninsula could automatically be at lower risk, especially if the system is right loaded due to shear. in that scenario, the west coast could be relatively dry while the east coast is swamped with a very tight precip gradient across the peninsula. 2008's fay did that in central florida with brevard county submerged while i got nothing in pinellas county. the same thing happened in south florida during 1999's irene with palm beach county dumped on while lee county was spared. i still think irene could be a good analog to this eventual event but time will tell.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jinftl]

If this setup materializes, one thing is for sure...the time for being vigilant and keeping an extra close eye on the tropics gets stepped up several notches for floridians in general...there is not as much variety in track for october systems as there is for systems in the nw caribbean earlier in the season....there is usually a trough approaching that will pick these systems up and move them north, ne, or ene.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MATTHEW...WHICH HAS WEAKENED TO A REMNANT LOW INLAND
ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH OF VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO.

A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI

[Aquawind]

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE 500 MB PATTERN WILL STAY WITH RIDGING
OVER THE WEST AND RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND THE QUESTION
WILL BE ON HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND HOW FAST IT KICKS OUT
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER...AND THE
NAM IN TURN HAS LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS FLORIDA. IN THE MEANTIME THE
FOCUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN SEA AND ITS EVOLUTION. MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THEY STILL
ARE. THE WEATHER HERE WILL CONTINUE WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +16 TO +18C. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT READINGS WILL START TO TREND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA AND
THERE IS ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP. THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
OUT OF THE CARRIBEAN WILL ALSO IMPACT OUR TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
CHANCES...WHICH FOR NOW REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. MID-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THERE
ARE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER...IN WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE HYBRIDS RATHER THAN PURELY
TROPICAL BASED ON CURRENT MODEL DATA. THIS MAKES THE DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST VERY TRICKY SO FOR NOW WE ARE JUST GOING TO FORECAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND ANY AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOP ALONG
IT. IF THE BOUNDARY GETS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...PARTS OF OUR REGION
COULD SEE SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR. SINCE THIS IS STILL OUT AT DAYS
6 AND 7...WILL KEEP 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES EVERYWHERE BOTH DAYS

.


Tampa Discussion.. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[tina25]

Jeff Masters update : http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.