Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[gatorcane]

part 2 another storm/hurricane for south FL within a week?



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal240.gif

Wow when will this end? It's like 2004 but systems are coming up from the south....

[Sanibel]

There's definitely a twist in the convection in the west Caribbean. What is causing it I'm not sure:

[gatorcane]

seems like I see an LLC spinning also. It's quite visible in the visible loops......does anybody else see it?

[HURAKAN]

Lixion Avila's facebook status:

"a lot of work this coming week if computer models are correct"

[blp]

THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
[/color]

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI

They kept it at 10% which is low IMO. This should have been gone up to 30% given the increasing organization and model support. Either way this is going up tonight no doubt about that.

[tina25]

Interesting that NHC kept it at 10%. Anyone care to weigh in on the reasoning?

[blp]

As other have stated, I am starting to believe this will be a rain event similar to Irene in 1999. I remember getting between 6" to 8" inches of rain and I thought that was an amazing amount of rain considering it happen in a short period of time. What concerns me is thought of dealing with two or maybe three of these type systems. If that happens then I might need to use my boat to navigate the streets. Interesting to see how it plays out....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/?n=1999_irene

Summary of Hurricane Irene in Southeast Florida



PATH
After lingering as a broad area of low pressure in the western Caribbean Sea for four days, a tropical depression formed just after midnight EDT on October 13 and became tropical storm Irene in the northwest Caribbean later that morning. Irene moved north across western Cuba on October 14 and strengthened to hurricane intensity early on October 15 in the Straits of Florida. It then made its first landfall in south Florida in the lower Florida Keys around 9 am EDT October 15. After crossing Florida Bay, the center made landfall on the peninsula near Cape Sable around 4 pm EDT October 15 as a Category One intensity hurricane. It moved northeast across central Miami-Dade and Broward counties before exiting into the Atlantic just after midnight on October 16 near Jupiter in northeast Palm Beach County.

METEOROLOGICAL EFFECTS
Heavy rains and sustained winds of tropical storm force caused widespread flooding and power outages in the metropolitan areas of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. The effects were similar, although somewhat more widespread, than those experienced in Tropical Storm Gordon in November 1994 and were reminiscent of the wet hurricanes in the 1930s and 1940s.

Rainfall totals in southeast Florida ranged from 6 to 17 inches with many areas getting 10 to 15 inches. The greatest reliable amount reported was 17.45 inches at Boynton Beach. The highest sustained wind over land was 60 mph at Miami Beach with many readings from 40 to 55 mph. Fowey Rocks Light reported sustained winds of 66 mph while the Miami NWS doppler radar estimated areas of sustained hurricane force winds in the Atlantic Ocean just off the southeast Florida coast. Among the highest recorded gusts were readings of 93 mph near Belle Glade, 85 mph at Homestead Air Reserve Base, 84 mph at Fowey Rocks Light, 74 mph at Turkey Point, and 70 mph at Miami International Airport. The lowest barometric pressure on the south Florida peninsula was 989.9 mb at Opa Locka Airport. Storm surge and beach erosion were minimal.

Four tornadoes (3 of F0 intensity and 1 of F1 intensity) touched down in Broward and Palm Beach counties, injuring 3 persons. Several other areas of localized wind damage were reported, especially near the southeast shore of Lake Okeechobee, and were likely attributable to convective downbursts.

CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE
There were no direct deaths from Irene, but eight persons died in the aftermath. Five were electrocuted by downed power lines, including three persons from one family. Three persons drowned in vehicle-related accidents. Damage in southeast Florida, mainly from flooding is estimated at $600 million which includes $335 million in agricultural losses. An estimated 700,000 customers lost electricity. Flooding in a few residential lasted for a week displacing several hundred persons and isolating thousands more.

Other long-term ecological repercussions may be experienced from the flooding rains such as the effects of high water on Everglades' hammocks, and the effects of excessive fresh-water runoff on brackish estuaries.

[ConvergenceZone]

I do agree with the report that Jeff Masters issued. The thing is, if this does cross south Florida by Wednesday Night, no way is it even going to have enough time to get very strong. This is especially true since this probably won't be a depression until around Monday Night or Tuesday at the earliest. It's just not going to have much water and ideal conditions in front of it to strengthen beyond a tropical storm. If any pro mets think this is wrong, please elaborate.

Regardless, lots of heavy rain for Florida. This can be a absolute major flooding event IF we do get the train of storms that a couple of the models are showing.

[SFLcane]

Interesting that NHC kept it at 10%. Anyone care to weigh in on the reasoning?

Even though surface pressures are rather low in the vicinity things still look rather disorganized. Long way before this becomes a significant TC.

[Vortmax1]

Interesting that NHC kept it at 10%. Anyone care to weigh in on the reasoning?

To me the reasoning is quite simple.
It all depends who is on duty and calling the shots as to what gets upgraded/declared or not.
I've seen it so many times and it rarely changes in cases like this.

[SFLcane]

12z ECM out...Nothing to crazy just a broad low pressure area interacting with a front which again should amount to a good fetch of tropical mositure heading northward towards SFL out of the NW caribbean sea.

[Aric Dunn]

Thats a MID level vorticity. nothing significant at the surface ...

[HURAKAN]

GFS 12z

[blp]

72hr Euro multiple vorticies

[blp]

96hr Euro down to one low.

[SeaBrz_FL]

If you look at the 12Z GFS accumulated precip fields through day 10, it's pretty obscene. 6"+ everywhere south/east of a line from Cape Coral to Saint Augustine, 10"+ south/east of a line from Naples to Daytona Beach, and bullseyes of 28" over Florida Bay and 25" just east of Cape Canaveral. The Caymans, Jamaica and Cuba also get abused. This setup is looking like it's gonna produce a serious multi-day rain event for someone. I think in this respect, the issue is now becoming exactly where the surface frontal boundary will stall, because along and east of it looks really, really wet for several days...

This rain thing is the part that is freaking me out most. I am still suffering PTSD from the 23" inches we got from 2008 Fay and just finished up the last of the indoor flood renovations. I lived in a FEMA X zone and there was no historic data of flooding for my surrounding area.

I just left Ace Hardware where I ordered a few Hydrabarrier Home® Sand Bags and they will be delivered on Wednesday. Cool product and much easier than traditional sandbags.

AJ, I'm sure you know this since you are a local met in my area, but prior to Fay, the all-time flooding record for Brevard was the 15+ inches delivered by King in 1950! Amazing to me that King has been mentioned so many time on the boards this year.

Also, FWIW, Weather Channel now talking a lot about this new "system".

Because of the erratic model timing, I'm taking the rest of the day to prepare for the worst, but as always, hoping for the best. Good luck everyone!

[SFLcane]

Pretty decent consus between the GFS/ECM on this becoming non-tropical in nature as it approaches florida. Atleast in my view.

[jlauderdal]

I dont buy the 2-3 storms the GFS has developing likely convective issues. Again this looks like a flooding event for parts of florida. Nothing we haven't already seen this summer as far as flooding.

gfs has been good with thi setup and i see the euro is similar so beware

[Vortmax1]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
237 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010


PRIMARY GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AT MORE MODERATE SCALE START EARLY IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00
UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGING MORE LEAD HEIGHT FALLS SEWD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST MIDWEEK THAN OTHER GUIDANCE THAT ACTS AS A MORE
EFFICIENT ERN US TROUGH/PCPN KICKER THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE OTHER
THAN NOGAPS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SEEMS TO SUGGESTS THAT THE
00 UTC ECMWF MAY BE TOO QUICK TO BRING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...LENDING TO A MORE BLENDED GUIDANCE SOLUTION. THE 00 UTC
GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN AND GFS/CANADIAN/NAEFS ENSEMBLES HOLD COPIOUSLY
MORE RAINFALL INLAND OVER THE ERN STATES WITH MORE ENERGY ALOFT
HOLDING BACK AT THE SRN END OF THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION. THE 06
UTC GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THAT LATTER
CLUSTER BUT 12 UTC GUIDANCE CERTAINLY NOW STILL LEAVES THE DOOR
WIDE OPEN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD/LOCALLY HEAVY TROPICAL
MOISTURE FUELED RAINS. A 16Z HPC/TPC COORDINATION CALL FOSTER SOME
FORM OF TROPICAL LOW INTO FL LATE WEEK/WEEKEND WITH A UNCERTAIN
STRENGTH/SPEED...BUT DEEP LEAD MOISTURE.

[Aquawind]

gfs has been good with thi setup and i see the euro is similar so beware

The generator running durring halftime is a perfect wakeup call..