Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[cycloneye]

2nd message=I notice that the comments are straying away from the theme of this thread. Lets not talk about any invididual(s) and continue to make comments about the area in the NW Caribbean.

[ObsessedMiami]

The NWS Miami discussions at this point are focusing on the amount of rain this "system" (once it appears) is expected to produce. When they say "continuous torrential rain" are they referring to the type of flooding we experienced with Irene and the famous "No-Name" storm, where portions of Dade County were impassable for days on end? Three days of that kind of rain would be worse IMHO than a tropical/cat 1 storm that was over in 5 hours.

[artist]

The NWS Miami discussions at this point are focusing on the amount of rain this "system" (once it appears) is expected to produce. When they say "continuous torrential rain" are they referring to the type of flooding we experienced with Irene and the famous "No-Name" storm, where portions of Dade County were impassable for days on end? Three days of that kind of rain would be worse IMHO than a tropical/cat 1 storm that was over in 5 hours.

Pro Met AJC3 posted this earlier-

If you look at the 12Z GFS accumulated precip fields through day 10, it's pretty obscene. 6"+ everywhere south/east of a line from Cape Coral to Saint Augustine, 10"+ south/east of a line from Naples to Daytona Beach, and bullseyes of 28" over Florida Bay and 25" just east of Cape Canaveral. The Caymans, Jamaica and Cuba also get abused. This setup is looking like it's gonna produce a serious multi-day rain event for someone. I think in this respect, the issue is now becoming exactly where the surface frontal boundary will stall, because along and east of it looks really, really wet for several days. The 12Z GFS shows this pattern setting up farther north/west than the 00Z ECM. Either way, both the GFS and ECM portend a significant heavy rain threat for at least the NW Caribbean, the Keys and South Florida.

hope it helps.

[otowntiger]

:uarrow: JB sounds to be on the same page as others here with Nicole and then Otto a few days to a week later. Some even conject Paula to follow.

RI is the part that we don't want to hear.

And is also the part that is very unlikely in my opinion. These models pull us in every which way and as it gets closer and closer to development time they start backing off. It seems any model will boldy predict ridiculously strong systems 5 days or more away, but when those days count down to just 2 or 3 they all get skiddish and back waaay off. I won't believe ANY of these models until I see it actually happening. Right now everything we are talking about is pure fantasy, because tomorrow, everything can and will change.

[jlauderdal]

The NWS Miami discussions at this point are focusing on the amount of rain this "system" (once it appears) is expected to produce. When they say "continuous torrential rain" are they referring to the type of flooding we experienced with Irene and the famous "No-Name" storm, where portions of Dade County were impassable for days on end? Three days of that kind of rain would be worse IMHO than a tropical/cat 1 storm that was over in 5 hours.

aj3c posted earlier today that gfs was outputting in the 25 inch range for florida bay so that would be more than irene and noname if it were to verify and it would take a very efficient setup to come close but consider if it were even half that so lets give this a couple more days before we call in the national guard

[ObsessedMiami]

The NWS Miami discussions at this point are focusing on the amount of rain this "system" (once it appears) is expected to produce. When they say "continuous torrential rain" are they referring to the type of flooding we experienced with Irene and the famous "No-Name" storm, where portions of Dade County were impassable for days on end? Three days of that kind of rain would be worse IMHO than a tropical/cat 1 storm that was over in 5 hours.

aj3c posted earlier today that gfs was outputting in the 25 inch range for florida bay so that would be more than irene and noname if it were to verify and it would take a very efficient setup to come close but consider if it were even half that so lets give this a couple more days before we call in the national guard

Let's wait until the darn thing actually materializes before we call in the National Guard. Thanks for the info.

[fci]

On the contrary, numerous systems in that area have undergone RI, however with such a large circulation, any rapid development are RI would appear to be unlikely, but not impossible.

Let's see.
Have I more faith in hurricaneCW or Meteorologist Jie Bastardi??
Give me some time.
Let me think.........

[Blown Away]

Don't mean to be picky, but if the NHC expects this low to develop near 18N/85W why wouldn't they center their circle over that area?

If parts of Florida gets 25+" of rain is some areas, that will likely be a disaster for some folks!

[gatorcane]

Getting organized at 48 hours:

[wzrgirl1]

Local meteorologist just came on and said a lot of rain and wind on tues. and wed. with a possible tropical system heading our way. Nothing really new I guess, but at least locally they are starting to acknowledge it. Sometimes we as weather enthusiasts know too much too quickly and then we get impatient. I know I get a tad obsessed....OK maybe a lot obsessed!!

[jinftl]

Excerpts from NWS office Discussions this afternoon:

NWS Miami:

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK... THINGS GET WET AS THE
FLOW FROM THE MID TO HIGH LVLS TURN SW AND LIFT DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS S FL. REGARDLESS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
IS A CONCERN AND POPS WILL LIKELY BE GREATLY UPPED IN THE SHIFTS
TO COME.



NWS Key West:

THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE EXCEEDINGLY
UNCERTAIN. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE CONGEALS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...DRAWING THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AREA.

BEING AS THERE IS NO SURE SIGN OF AN ORGANIZED LOW YET...IT IS
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SAY WHAT OUR WIND...CLOUD COVER...OR
PRECIPITATION FIELD WILL LOOK LIKE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A VERY WET
PERIOD IS SHAPING UP FOR MID WEEK AND BEYOND. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE ONGOING UPWARD TREND IN WINDS AND POPS THROUGH THE MID AND
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.


NWS Tampa Bay:

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A DEEP
EASTERN U.S. MID-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THERE
ARE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER...IN WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE HYBRIDS RATHER THAN PURELY
TROPICAL BASED ON CURRENT MODEL DATA. THIS MAKES THE DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST VERY TRICKY SO FOR NOW WE ARE JUST GOING TO FORECAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


NWS Melbourne:

WED-SAT...DETAILS OF LONG RANGE FORECAST STILL MURKY AS ATTENTION
TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SOME TYPE OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
(OR TWO) LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND TOWARDS
FLORIDA. GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL NO INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WITH
THIS FORECASTED TROPICAL SYSTEM FOR THE MODELS TO GRAB
ONTO...CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
TRACK...SPEED...AND INTENSITY REMAINS LOW. MOST SOLUTIONS HOWEVER
POINT TO A WET AND STORMY PERIOD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH RAIN CHANCES AROUND 40% AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.



NWS Mobile:

THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...BUT
NOW MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL TROPICAL/HYBRID SYSTEM
PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT APPEARS THE ONLY EFFECT THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE FOR OUR AREA IS TO STRENGTHEN THE DRY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
34/JFB

[gatorcane]

54 Hours, 1 MB loss, very large circulation:

[gatorcane]

72 hours, lots of rain over South FL:

[Aquawind]

Breezy and Bouy Pressure continues to fall...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[gatorcane]

The lows love Florida, 5 days from now and we are still dealing with rainfall

[Aquawind]

Pretty good vorticity..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 4java.html


Shear to the north..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[gatorcane]

Here it comes again 144 hours from now. Otto? Also, what's that new low in the Caribbean?

[jinftl]

Interesting...Accuweather has the following forecast for Saturday and Saturday night in Key West:


Saturday (10/2)
Very windy; mostly cloudy and humid with thunderstorms
NNE at 34 mph
Gusts: 64 mph

Saturday Night (10/2)
Very windy; cloudy and humid with a couple of thunderstorms around
NNE at 45 mph
Gusts: 70 mph

[Aquawind]

That's interesting alrighty..Look's like they are making a TS call..

[gatorcane]

Looks like the second low (Otto), hangs around for a while...if this comes true, this would be an unprecedented amount of rainfall for Southern FL: