Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[KWT]

who said anything about Wilma?....show me a global that makes this into a cat 3.... We do not even have an invest and you want to compare it to Wilma? nice...

Its not really the fact he is comparing it to Wilma but trying to show what a fine line sometimes there is between shear weakening a storm and also shear stregthening a storm.

If you want a storm this season, take a look at Julia, the models just messed up the shear zone, not by much (the shear was obvious on WV about 150 miles north of the system) but that was the difference between a sheared cat-1 and a fully developed category-4...and obviously we are still far enough out that this could be the case here...

Honestly though these sorts of evolution rarely lead to anything too strong, esp when there are other lows forming in the broad gyre as well as lows to the north, tends to just frazzle the enerfy and splice it into too many different regions...

[gatorcane]

Peeps, in the long-range models threads, look at the third system the GFS has for South Florida, strongest of them yet (its 384 hours out.....so take it with a grain of salt):

[jinftl]

And that was the point....however unsuccessfully, i was trying to make....didn't mean to get this dialogue off topic and open the "W" can of worms....just wanted to provide an example where in approximately the same region and time of year (wilma was a month later), that a extremely strong front and trough somehow not only didn't weaken wilma from a cat 2 as she moved off the yucatan, but aided in her intensification. So off topic that I promise not to say the W word again in the Active Systems thread....oh wait, this isn't that!

In Wilma's case they showed a sheared and elongated system as well but look what happened. The shear actually helped the system.

[Ixolib]

So we don't need to board up, just get sandbags?:P

As I've said sooooo many times in the past, I'll take a "wind" event any day over a "surge" event.

[hurricaneCW]

The problem is that if the storms are indeed weak that many people will let their guards down. If the gfs is correct, then Florida and further up the coast will have to contend with some serious and very dangerous flooding from probably Nicole and Otto.

Sometimes slow moving weaker storms that pour out inches of rain are much more dangerous than one quick moving hurricane. If the QPF forecasts are correct, then parts of Florida could see over a foot of rain in less than a week.

[CourierPR]

I just looked at the RAMSDIS sat loop and saw what looks like a center of circulation forming off the NE coast of Nicaragua. Of course I might just be tired from getting up in the wee hours to come to this site.

[Aric Dunn]

For a comparison .. charlie seems more fitting than wilma right now..

[wzrgirl1]

I just looked at the RAMSDIS sat loop and saw what looks like a center of circulation forming off the NE coast of Nicaragua. Of course I might just be tired from getting up in the wee hours to come to this site.

Can you send the link please?

[jinftl]

Uh-oh...if i got ripped a new one for a wilma shear reference...lol

For a comparison .. charlie seems more fitting than wilma right now..

[CourierPR]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp Here it is.

[SFLcane]

I just looked at the RAMSDIS sat loop and saw what looks like a center of circulation forming off the NE coast of Nicaragua. Of course I might just be tired from getting up in the wee hours to come to this site.

Dont see anything really trying to organize just a very broad mid/surface circulation. Still ways to go before this becomes anything of real concern.

Edit.... possibly a small window tomorrow and Tuesday for this to intensify before it gets yanked to the north into a more hostile environment.

[Blown Away]

Are we still at 10% at 8pm? I say they bump it to 20% just because of the potential within 48 hours.

[Florida1118]

Are we still at 10% at 8pm? I say they bump it to 20% just because of the potential within 48 hours.

Woohoo! 20%! But in all seriousness, they do need to Invest this. NWS offices around the state need help with their forecast.....

[jlauderdal]

I would think with the GFS showing possible tropical cyclone development in 54 hrs that the NHC would up their development chances to much more than 10%. I mean with all the model support that is being just too conservative, Heck, we could have a tropical storm knocking on the keys door in 3 days.

well their percentage is within 48 hours so based on the model if they are following it they would up it in 6 hours which would be within 48 hours, makes sense?

[jlauderdal]

Peeps, in the long-range models threads, look at the third system the GFS has for South Florida, strongest of them yet (its 384 hours out.....so take it with a grain of salt):

good catch, we know 384 is way out there but it appears there is a pattern developing here, lol

[jlauderdal]

Are we still at 10% at 8pm? I say they bump it to 20% just because of the potential within 48 hours.

30

[cycloneye]

But in all seriousness, they do need to Invest this

The Squadron has a plane ready if needed for tommorow afternoon so 96L will come later tonight or in the early morning hours.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 27/1430Z
D. 18.0N 85.0W
E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[jlauderdal]

Are we still at 10% at 8pm? I say they bump it to 20% just because of the potential within 48 hours.

Woohoo! 20%! But in all seriousness, they do need to Invest this. NWS offices around the state need help with their forecast.....

miami nws is right down the hall from nhc, if they need help they can just walk a few steps over and ask, they will invest this when they they think it is worthy of an invest but i do think its coming real soon

[Florida1118]

Are we still at 10% at 8pm? I say they bump it to 20% just because of the potential within 48 hours.

Woohoo! 20%! But in all seriousness, they do need to Invest this. NWS offices around the state need help with their forecast.....

miami nws is right down the hall from nhc, if they need help they can just walk a few steps over and ask, they will invest this when they they think it is worthy of an invest but i do think its coming real soon

Really? I thought they had completely different buildings...Thats good for them.

[sfwx]

That's interesting alrighty..Look's like they are making a TS call..

Doesn't Accuweater base their 15 day forecast strictly on the GFS model?

Eric