Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[Vortex]

Didn't mean to go off topic...just showing an example of a system in potentially the same area geographically that didn't weaken due to shear.....no analogue to wilma other than to show this point implied....relax!

I think your analysis is right on..north of SFL it will shear out but it has the potential to reach hurricane strength prior to and while over SFL...Use the models as a guide not gospel as mike watkins would say..

[Vortex]

The argument against Wilma would be that Wilma was already a very developed low-end hurricane when it left the Yucatan and made a beeline into Southern FL........

In this case, it's not organized. That said, we can't rule out the possibility the models are not handling the shear correctly or the possibility that the system organizes more quickly in the Caribbean (perhaps because the models usually try to eject systems out of the Caribbean too quickly). In Wilma's case they showed a sheared and elongated system as well but look what happened. The shear actually helped the system.

Gator you summed it up perfectly...models do an overall great job with track but intensity often not so...

[cycloneye]

Remains at 10%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA...WHICH HAS WEAKENED TO A REMNANT LOW
ABOUT 835 MILES SOUTH OF THE AZORES.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

[psyclone]

NHC buzzkill alert. in all seriousness, i thought they would at least double down to 20%. afterall, 48 hours from now should be close to liftoff, right?

[Vortex]

they just jump to 50-60 tomorrow morning

[Aquawind]

That's interesting alrighty..Look's like they are making a TS call..

Doesn't Accuweater base their 15 day forecast strictly on the GFS model?

Eric

Good Point..Could very well be..

BTW GO TWINS!

[hurricanedude]

VERY important for everyone shouting hurricane VS TS is that as it is getting sheered.....it will likely become a hybrid/extrop. system as it rides up the coast. that being said....the wind field could be very much larger than a pure tropical sytem.....in fact winds will likely be much stronger away from center so dont focus on the center as the worst of the weather may be hundreds of miles in all directions of the center

[jinftl]

More of a reality check than a buzzkill perhaps...


to get some perspective, here is a great analysis of the situation from Crownweather:


Ok, here are my thoughts on all of this: To be perfectly honest, I’m not quite sure how things are going to unfold this week in the western Caribbean and I do not trust any of the model guidance right now. None of the forecast models agree with one another and even the ensemble models do not agree with their operational counterparts.

I will say that while I don’t trust any of the model guidance right now, I do think that the GFS model seems somewhat unrealistic in its forecast of multiple tropical cyclones forming. If I were to lean towards a model solution, it would be towards the European operational and European ensemble model in a track of Nicole that takes it very near south Florida and the Florida Keys by Friday and then potentially being left behind next weekend into the following week in the northern Caribbean.

What do we actually have somewhat of a consensus on right now?? Well, we do know that a low pressure system is currently developing in the western Caribbean and it will have a large circulation associated with it. I do think that since the circulation will be large that development into a tropical cyclone should be slow to occur. The model solutions seem to agree that a good portion of the state of Florida will be affected by whatever comes out of the northwest Caribbean.

Now, I did mention that I expect that slow development is forecast and I am not anticipating a rapid spinup. I am not exactly confident on that consensus as ocean water temperatures in the northwest Caribbean are extremely warm and environmental conditions are quite favorable. So, rapid organization and intensification is a distinct possibility.

As I mentioned yesterday, it would be unwise and foolish to make a specific track forecast due to high uncertainty of this system. Once we get better consensus and an actual system to track, we should be able to start coming up with a more specific track forecast.

Needless to say, I will be monitoring things very closely this week and all interests in the western Caribbean and in Florida should pay very close attention to the possibility of a tropical cyclone forming this week and tracking towards Florida later this week.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

NHC buzzkill alert. in all seriousness, i thought they would at least double down to 20%. afterall, 48 hours from now should be close to liftoff, right?

[Vortex]

some very low pressures down there...my guess once it starts developing might go right to TS nicole very quickly..my call is Nicole by tommorow evening

Report from Honduras:

La Ceiba, HO (Airport)
Updated: 57 min 21 sec ago
84 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 4 mph from the NE
Pressure: 29.59 in (Falling)

[Aric Dunn]

NHC buzzkill alert. in all seriousness, i thought they would at least double down to 20%. afterall, 48 hours from now should be close to liftoff, right?

The models are not the only thing that determines the percentages... you have to have something that is at least organizing or a least showing something that would say it has a chance. yes we model support but we dont have anything at the surface except mostly SE wind through the whole NW carrib. once something begins to look promising then they will change it. right now it still the left over flow from matthew.

[Sihara]

.....it will likely become a hybrid/extrop. system as it rides up the coast. that being said....the wind field could be very much larger than a pure tropical sytem.....in fact winds will likely be much stronger away from center so dont focus on the center as the worst of the weather may be hundreds of miles in all directions of the center

That makes a lot of sense. And someone earlier on in this thread talked about the possibilities of being "baroclinically induced." We have to keep watching - Florida's experience with this kind of hybrid storm hasn't exactly been pleasant.

[gatorcane]

I probably would have gone with at least 30%, probably morel like 40-50% on this, and bump it to code orange. Reason is because the GFS shows development with 48 hours. Also, would have tagged an invest because of model support and close proximity to landfall (Cuba then eventually FL is possible)

[Aric Dunn]

I probably would have gone with at least 30% on this, and bump it to code orange. Reason is because the GFS shows development with 48 hours. Also, would have tagged an invest because of model support.

I see no reason to give it any better chance since the whole system has not changed much at all today.

[Vortex]

18Z GFDL when running the EPAC invest show Nicole moving across SFL..


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Vortex]

also note at the end of run another closed low appears over the keys..

[wzrgirl1]

Can someone send me a link to a recent satellite pic? Curious as to what is going on down there.

[SFLcane]

18Z GFDL when running the EPAC invest show Nicole moving across SFL..


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Looks like a very hostile enviroment across the gulf. Models pretty much shear this out north of cuba.

[jim2cocoa]

18Z GFDL when running the EPAC invest show Nicole moving across SFL..


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Looks like a very hostile enviroment across the gulf. Models pretty much shear this out north of cuba.

could this mean a hybrid?

[southerngale]

Can someone send me a link to a recent satellite pic? Curious as to what is going on down there.

Take your pick.

Scroll down to Caribbean.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

[wzrgirl1]

Can someone send me a link to a recent satellite pic? Curious as to what is going on down there.

Take your pick.

Scroll down to Caribbean.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

Thanks!!!