Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[jinftl]

Not sure how much of a Gulf player this system could be....shear through 72 hours looks very low from the florida keys south...where this system---if it develops----will form. Shear forecast for the NW Caribbean remains very very low.

18Z GFDL when running the EPAC invest show Nicole moving across SFL..


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Looks like a very hostile enviroment across the gulf. Models pretty much shear this out north of cuba.

[ObsessedMiami]

I am beginning to feel like a dog that has just chased his tail for the last three hours. After following these discussions, we went from a hurricane in 72 hours to a catastrophic rain event to 10% of anything happening. Buzzkill indeed.

[wzrgirl1]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg

Def a lot of convection down there.

[ConvergenceZone]

I am beginning to feel like a dog that has just chased his tail for the last three hours. After following these discussions, we went from a hurricane in 72 hours to a catastrophic rain event to 10% of anything happening. Buzzkill indeed.

Remember, that's 10% of development over the next 48 hours. That will bring us to Tuesday Night. landfall isn't expected until sometime on Wednesday if I'm not mistaken, so there's still a chance that even if it doesn't become a depression or storm by Tuesday Night that it stil might happen prior to landfall on Wednesday Night.

[otowntiger]

Peeps, in the long-range models threads, look at the third system the GFS has for South Florida, strongest of them yet (its 384 hours out.....so take it with a grain of salt):


good catch, we know 384 is way out there but it appears there is a pattern developing here, lol

Yeah, a pattern of the models being real bold and brazen predicting intense storms 2-3 weeks into the future only to have them come back down to earth when crunch time comes.

[cycloneye]

The Predict Team has designated this area as PGI50L.They call it the "Daughter of Matthew"

http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI50L.html

[SFLcane]

10 percent looks about right...Surface pressures remain low across the area but i just dont see any signs of a surface feature trying to develope. Broad cyclonic turning is all i see.

[wzrgirl1]

I think people may get confused that you changed the title of the thread. Most don't know what a pouch is.

[otowntiger]

18Z GFDL when running the EPAC invest show Nicole moving across SFL..


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

It doesn't show a t.s. moving across FL, it shows a broad, weak low gently passing over.

[otowntiger]

10 percent looks about right...Surface pressures remain low across the area but i just dont see any signs of a surface feature trying to develope. Broad cyclonic turning is all i see.

I don't even see that.

[Blown Away]

The Predict Team has designated this area as PGI50L.They call it the "Daughter of Matthew"

http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI50L.html

And people say science & math guys don't have a sense of humor!!

[ROCK]

low level circulation moving NW towards the tip of the Yucatan. Blow up of convection right over or real close....

bottom of the screen

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html

[jlauderdal]

The Predict Team has designated this area as PGI50L.They call it the "Daughter of Matthew"

http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI50L.html

wasn't it the big one yesterday

[jinftl]

Welcome to S2K peak season...alot of this dialogue has been...and is...based on highly variable model runs this far out. Have you read Animal Farm...the NHC is often the parents at the end of that allegory finding us kids here in s2k land....take it for what it's worth. This is an amazing forum for enthusiasts....but when all we have is model runs that change big time every 6 hours to back about 50 pages of this thread....it is important to step back every now and then. That said, I will stay glued here (within reason) this week.

I am beginning to feel like a dog that has just chased his tail for the last three hours. After following these discussions, we went from a hurricane in 72 hours to a catastrophic rain event to 10% of anything happening. Buzzkill indeed.

[cycloneye]

Vortex, I edited the title to add the new pouch PGI50L.

[Vortex]

Vortex, I edited the title to add the new pouch PGI50L.

Thanks Luis, it will be an invest tomorrow and most people are familar with that term. My only concern is if people come here for information after the local news etc..they may not know what a pouch is.....

[wzrgirl1]

Vortex, I edited the title to add the new pouch PGI50L.

Thanks Luis, it will be an invest tomorrow and most people are familar with that term. My only concern is if people come here for information after the local news etc..they may not know what a pouch is.....

I said that earlier and it wasn't acknowledged.

[cycloneye]

We have a thread with a sticky that explains all about what a pouch is.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109400&p=2071537#p2071537

[Vortex]

NWS Miami Hazardous outlook...You don't see torrential rains used in an outlook very often here...



DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AS RICH TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS, BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL, IT DOES APPEAR THAT AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
FLOODING WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD

[wzrgirl1]

NWS Miami Hazardous outlook...You don't see torrential rains used in an outlook very often here...



DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AS RICH TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS, BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL, IT DOES APPEAR THAT AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
FLOODING WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD

At the minimum this is what will occur. Ughh!! To me that is more worrysome then the chance of a hurricane because this is almost imminent.