Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[boca]

Funny thing is that theirs 58 pages of models developing a system that hasn't materialized yet.

[CourierPR]

[quote="boca"]What about the area SW of Jamaica. Looks like convection is firing over there.

I was just going to post about that. Convection is increasing there.

[gatorcane]

Convection is clearing in the western caribbean. Yet that is where models create the storm. What gives?

[Macrocane]

This could be the Florida's Allison, a "weak" tropcial storm but lots of rain and flooding and if a 2nd storm forms things could get even worse. Fay already showed Florida that tropcial storms are a real threat but Bonnie this year could make people to let their guard down. I hope everyone takes this seriuosly.

[cycloneye]

Funny thing is that theirs 57 pages of models developing a system that hasn't materialized yet.

That is why we have a forum that is named "Talking Tropics"

[hurricaneCW]

Funny thing is that theirs 57 pages of models developing a system that hasn't materialized yet.

The thing is you'll see less pages about a Category 5, 190 mph storm, sub 900 pressures in the Atlantic that's forecast to recurve than a weak tropical storm that could impact Florida.

[gatorcane]

This could be the Florida's Allison, a "weak" tropcial storm but lots of rain and flooding and if a 2nd storm forms things could get even worse. Fay already showed Florida that tropcial storms are a real threat but Bonnie this year could make people to let their guard down. I hope everyone takes this seriuosly.

Sadly, I don't think people will unless we have hurricane warnings. People generally focus on the wind threat not the rain threat.

[ConvergenceZone]

Funny thing is that theirs 57 pages of models developing a system that hasn't materialized yet.

The thing is you'll see less pages about a Category 5, 190 mph storm, sub 900 pressures in the Atlantic that's forecast to recurve than a weak tropical storm that could impact Florida.

That's because of the large amount of people on this board that live in Florida....

[dixiebreeze]

On Wednesday TAFB:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

I'm very concerned about heavy duty rain since I have to drive from the west coast to the Mayo Clinic in Jax early Wed. Hope this all holds off a bit.

[Ptarmigan]

So much uncertainties. Only consensus I have seen with the models is something tropical in nature will develop and be a rainmaker. The question is will that monsoonal trough spawn one or two or even three tropical systems that would be Nicole, Otto, and Paula. If two were to be spawned that would be 15 named storms for the season. If Nicole was to form, we would have 8 storms form in September, which would be a record, since 2007. If Otto and Paula formed in September too, than 9 and 10 named storms in September and that would be a record.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CourierPR]

Convection is clearing in the western caribbean. Yet that is where models create the storm. What gives?

Wrong! Convection is not clearing.

[jinftl]

The gaul of this board for talking about the tropics...if you tell me that folks are talking football on a football message board, I am going to lose all faith in the system!!!

Funny thing is that theirs 57 pages of models developing a system that hasn't materialized yet.

[Sanibel]

Matthew's center is headed into Mexico to dissipation. It shouldn't be any influence on the Caribbean Low in a day or two even though its outer convection is black bursting over BOC.

[Vortex]

GFS 00z...H12 looks a little agressive in just 12 hours...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012l.gif

[Vortex]

17/85 looks to be a good spot to look for development in the morning...

[Vortex]

H30 strentgthening some...south of western cuba..west of the caymans...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal030.gif

[Vortex]

H36 south of western cuba..a little deeper....



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

[Vortex]

500mb at 36...250 mb look quite favorable aloft across the western carribean


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal036.gif

[hurricaneCW]

Gfs seems to indicate that we should start seeing some development very soon, definitely by tomorrow.

[Vortex]

H42 south of western cuba...favorable conditions aloft continue...probablly nearing ts strength....



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif