Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[Evil Jeremy]

As an FYI/reality check....i haven't seen any media coverage of anything regarding what may develop other than a mention that the rain chances may go up later this week during the weather segment of the news....this from a local news media that is hyper-sensitive to anything even remotely suggesting a 'tropical threat' to south florida.

The dialogue here has not yet made the maintstream news....nor should it...yet.

WSVN briefly mentioned the possibility of a tropical system about 2 hours ago.

[AtlanticWind]

That GFS model run was just insane . I cant imagine almost 2 weeks of wind and rain topped off what looks like maybe a major hurricane.

[boca]

As an FYI/reality check....i haven't seen any media coverage of anything regarding what may develop other than a mention that the rain chances may go up later this week during the weather segment of the news....this from a local news media that is hyper-sensitive to anything even remotely suggesting a 'tropical threat' to south florida.

The dialogue here has not yet made the maintstream news....nor should it...yet.

WSVN briefly mentioned the possibility of a tropical system about 2 hours ago.

I wish I still got wsvn here in boca. they dropped it out of their lineup 5 yrs ago.

[jinftl]

Or it could be related to the fact the NHC still is giving this a 10% shot of developing in the next 48 hours...don't get me wrong...if this is about to blow up, the media will be all over it....it's just that the s2k buzz has eclipsed the actual reality of development so far.

As an FYI/reality check....i haven't seen any media coverage of anything regarding what may develop other than a mention that the rain chances may go up later this week during the weather segment of the news....this from a local news media that is hyper-sensitive to anything even remotely suggesting a 'tropical threat' to south florida.

The dialogue here has not yet made the maintstream news....nor should it...yet.

They are saying the exact same thing in my area (on the other coast.) I'm thinking it may be because the weekend staff is on and they aren't as informed as the regulars, so the tune may change a bit tomorrow.

[jinftl]

Having spent Hurricane Jeanne in West Palm...i have to say....and i mean no disregard for the news staff and tv mets in that market....i couldn't wait to get back to broward to be able to hear bryan norcross on cbs 4-miami and even tune in to what wsvn was saying...the wood panelling on the west palm news stations is reminiscent of 1979!

As an FYI/reality check....i haven't seen any media coverage of anything regarding what may develop other than a mention that the rain chances may go up later this week during the weather segment of the news....this from a local news media that is hyper-sensitive to anything even remotely suggesting a 'tropical threat' to south florida.

The dialogue here has not yet made the maintstream news....nor should it...yet.

WSVN briefly mentioned the possibility of a tropical system about 2 hours ago.

I wish I still got wsvn here in boca. they dropped it out of their lineup 5 yrs ago.

[boca]

I totally agree with you jinftl.Other than the hype on S2k the media is underplaying this,at least in Palm Beach County.

[boca]

The Miami market is generally better than the West Palm market in my opinion.

[floridasun78]

all south florida weatherman are talking about suppose area nw carribbean their warring us of bad weather starting wed i am miami area

[jinftl]

No hyping yet from local news, here is the 11pm weather report from CBS 4-Miami

http://cbs4.com/video/?id=101404@wfor.dayport.com

[summersquall]

from CBS 4 Local - West Palm

WE WILL SEE ONE MORE NICE DAY MONDAY. A WET SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF US AND MOVE NORTH. RAIN WILL INCREASE TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY WET WITH TROPICAL DOWNPOURS, FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR http://WWW.CBS4.COM/TROPICS AND CBS4 NEWS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.



--- I'll be busy tomorrow ark building.

[fci]

I'm not sure what y'all want the media to say at this point.
If they hype a system that does not yet exist, we laugh at them for sensationalizing it. Now that they are not talking about the potential system(s), they are criticized for not.
Until there is actually something developing, I think they need to underplay the story.

[Recurve]

If you read the PREDICT discussion they mention convection focusing along a line of convergence, extending slightly southeastward across the western Carib, and that is exactly what it looks like is happening on satellite now.
On the issue of local weather forecasts, it seems like everyone is seeing the forecasts of a plume of moisture, but not a tropical storm hitting us at least in the near term. NWS Key West has POPs at 40 percent on Wednesday, up from climatology. It will probably climb higher by tomorrow if GFS continues to show the plume from the Caribbean streaming north to the keys and SFLA.

[jinftl]

Exactly....local media is handling things correctly....my motivation for posting the link to the local weather update from WFOR-Miami was to show that: 1) contrary to what folks, esp. outside of florida, may think - no one is saying we are doomed, and 2) the uncertainty of the forecast for the week ahead is being dealt with, in my opinion, in a professional and non-sensational manner. No one said a system won't develop - but the local weather is saying this is highly uncertain so stay tuned.

It is only in this thread that I have seen mention of: 1) tracks, 2) intensity forecasts, and 3) reasons why #1 and #2 are wrong! If you lived down here you would know that if there is anything remotely on the horizon, the news media is all over out. Right now, even they realize it is way too soon to go that route.

I'm not sure what y'all want the media to say at this point.
If they hype a system that does not yet exist, we laugh at them for sensationalizing it. Now that they are not talking about the potential system(s), they are criticized for not.
Until there is actually something developing, I think they need to underplay the story.

[blp]

00z CMC landfall Miami area 72hr.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[dmbthestone]

Upto 30%

[jinftl]

Code Orange...let the hyping by media begin!!!

[blp]

They needed to start moving this up so as to not catch people off guard because practically every model showing something developing in the next 24hrs

[psyclone]

well that's more like it. i couldn't understand why it was left at a paltry 10% on the 8pm update. it's not like going to 20 or 30% means they are raging bulls on development within 48 hours but it is at least an indication that we are nearing the time for something to happen.

[FireRat]

Looking through records, there are some antique analog storms of note that kind of portray what could happen should there be a worse case scenario in the two weeks ahead. The hurricane of late September, 1896 which took shape in the Caribbean and hooked NE into the Big bend. 1873's cat 3 storm that existed as a TS south of Cuba late September, grazed the Yucatan's northeast corner and then took a Wilma-like swipe at South Florida in early October. The worst of the three such storms was the infamous 1846 hurricane that barreled up through Cuba and up the spine of Florida on October 11 and then shot up the eastern U.S. seaboard. That one was possibly category 5 when it passed in the vicinity of the Keys. Bottom line, these close-to-home brew storms can once in a while be real monsters and whatever forms down there merits special attention. Just thought looking to the far past might reveal some long hidden secrets.

-FireRat.