Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[HeeBGBz]

Significant rain in with Mississippi yesterday evening. Very cool and fall-like this am. Would that be the cutoff low peeps were talking about?

[Evil Jeremy]

My untrained eyes could be playing tricks on me, but I think I see rotation in the convection blob right to the East of the Yucatan.

[srainhoutx]

Significant rain in with Mississippi yesterday evening. Very cool and fall-like this am. Would that be the cutoff low peeps were talking about?

Yes it would. The cutoff low is just South of Memphis this AM.

[HURAKAN]

48 hours



60 hours

[SouthFLTropics]

Based on that map I better make sure that my boat is ready, I've got my rain coat available, and my rubber boots are good to go...WOW

SFT

[ObsessedMiami]

NWS Miami is only calling for 60% rain chances and gusts in the mid-20s

Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. East wind between 9 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a low around 77. Breezy, with a southeast wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a southeast wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78. Breezy, with a south wind between 14 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[Category 5]

Really bubbling this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-rgb.html

[boca]

It looks like the area is moving slowing NE and not north to me.

[wxman57]

As far as this disturbance being an invest TPC usually waits until there is a circulation center (at some level). The system does not appear to have one just yet.

That's not a criterion. It's a subjective call on when to make a disturbance an invest. I would surely think this feature qualifies.

[Vortex]

NWS Miami is only calling for 60% rain chances and gusts in the mid-20s

Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. East wind between 9 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a low around 77. Breezy, with a southeast wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a southeast wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78. Breezy, with a south wind between 14 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

I can almost guarantee you those winds will be increased significantly...

[Evil Jeremy]

I can almost guarantee you those winds will be increased significantly...

I wouldn't say they would be increased "significantly". The NWS in Miami tends to underplay winds rather than overplay them when dealing with tropical systems, at least from what I have seen.

[Category 5]

Yeah, why is there no invest on this?

[Bocadude85]

Are the models actually developing a tropical system from this disturbance? Or are they just forecasting a broad low to move over Florida?

[ericinmia]

Could this be the beginning of it getting it's act together?

Other area's of convection across the carribean are slightly wanning, and the main 'blobs' associated with what is to possibly be appear to be strengthening. ??? We shall see...

[Vortex]

things coming together...spin-up should happen on the nw side of the deep area of convection near the caymans....

[Cyclone1]

If you told me this was a tropical depression or maybe even a weak tropical storm, I would totally believe you by looking at it.

Not saying it IS, I'm just pointing out how impressive it is.

[Macrocane]

My untrained eyes could be playing tricks on me, but I think I see rotation in the convection blob right to the East of the Yucatan.

I see that too, maybe it's not the definitive center but it looks interesting.

[boca]

I'm curious if this system will track N, NNE, or NE

[ronjon]

Pretty unbelievable there is no INVEST yet. All of the subjective criteria are there: deep convection, broad rotation, and model support. I'm scratching my head. We could at least get the dynamical hurricane models run with an INVEST.

[canes04]

I think we are looking at Nicole in the making. No reason this can't be a Hurricane within 48 hours, to much heat content in it's current location for it not to strengthen. Could be a slow mover for the next 48 to 72 hours.

Could see some serious flooding in FLA.