Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[ericinmia]

Pretty unbelievable there is no INVEST yet. All of the subjective criteria are there: deep convection, broad rotation, and model support. I'm scratching my head. We could at least get the dynamical hurricane models run with an INVEST.

Maybe they aren't running them because they don't want anyone to know that this is going to turn into a Monster and it can't be stopped!!!! (Evil Dr Laugh...)

Just kidding all! We'll get an invest, or a TD sooner or later...

-----

Serious note:
If this does get it's act together faster that could spell trouble, as the area has a history of RI. (This is just an open thought, not a prediction...)
It all comes down to the fact that this area is competing for consolidation with all of the convection around the Carib.

[cycloneye]

If anyone wants to ask NHC about why this is not a invest, you can email them.



nhc.public.affairs@noaa.gov

[Bocadude85]

I am assuming the recon mission will be canceled but it seems they have not canceled the mission yet.. wasnt recon scheduled to take off at 1045 this morning?

[Sanibel]

I think Matthew was dominating the region as the strongest Low. However it is obvious this convection bank is persisting over a prime development area.

[Vortex]

I think NHC may be acting abit to slow with this since the impacts are going to be felt over a very large metro area within 48 hours...Just my opnion...

[SFLcane]

NWS Miami....10am updated discussion

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMFL

[artist]

Derek's thoughts as of last night-

Matthew inland, but Caribbean remains active
Posted 9/26/2010 7:31 PM EDT on pnj.com Prod
Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the mountains of Mexico, south of the Bay of Campeche. The cyclone moved west of the forecast track, stalling farther inland than expected. Its motion also resulted in significantly less ran that expected in Honduras and Guatemala. So far, there have not been any reports of deaths. The remnant low continues to produce heavy rainfall, and life threatening flooding remains possible.

This does not mean that the Caribbean is quiet. Models are predicting multiple cyclones forming out of a broad monsoon trough that is located over the area. One may form in a couple of days and head toward South Florida. The models are not clear as to whether this will be tropical, subtropical, or non-tropical. At the present time, we are thinking that any development would be tropical in nature and that it would have a chance to become a hurricane.

Another system may develop in the area toward the end of the week. Some of the models are showing this system as an intense tropical storm or a hurricane. It may also be a threat to the Florida Peninsula, though this is very uncertain at this time.

The remainder of the Atlantic is again quiet. Lisa became a hurricane briefly, though it has since weakened quickly and is now a remnant low.
Comments (0) | Permanent Link

http://www.pnj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/sectio ... ersonaDest

[HURAKAN]

Vorticity increasing

[jlauderdal]

Pretty unbelievable there is no INVEST yet. All of the subjective criteria are there: deep convection, broad rotation, and model support. I'm scratching my head. We could at least get the dynamical hurricane models run with an INVEST.

Maybe they aren't running them because they don't want anyone to know that this is going to turn into a Monster and it can't be stopped!!!! (Evil Dr Laugh...)

Just kidding all! We'll get an invest, or a TD sooner or later...





invest will come, dont worry folks invest or not you have all the chatter you need about the system right here

-----

Serious note:
If this does get it's act together faster that could spell trouble, as the area has a history of RI. (This is just an open thought, not a prediction...)
It all comes down to the fact that this area is competing for consolidation with all of the convection around the Carib.

well i just went by stacey stewarts house and there are 5 guys out there filling sandbags and another 2 guys putting up 1 inch thick shutters,


how about those pwats approaching 3 with plenty of lift to wring it all out, you dont see that setup very often, did start the generator yesterday, neighbors were asking questions told them to be ready for the next 14 days

[ericinmia]

well i just went by stacey stewarts house and there are 5 guys out there filling sandbags and another 2 guys putting up 1 inch thick shutters,


how about those pwats approaching 3 with plenty of lift to wring it all out, you dont see that setup very often, did start the generator yesterday, neighbors were asking questions told them to be ready for the next 14 days

I'm planning on starting the genny tomorrow mid afternoon... right around 5:30pm. I'm sure all the people coming home from work will get a kick out of me unloading the large gas tanks (not filled, but in storage) from my truck too. FPL went ahead and knocked out my power last night after the phins game for about 10 seconds... almost like a warning shot. lol

I've got (4) of these bad boys "30gal ea"... http://www.northerntool.com/images/prod ... 035_lg.jpg

[artist]

well i just went by stacey stewarts house and there are 5 guys out there filling sandbags and another 2 guys putting up 1 inch thick shutters,


how about those pwats approaching 3 with plenty of lift to wring it all out, you dont see that setup very often, did start the generator yesterday, neighbors were asking questions told them to be ready for the next 14 days

I'm planning on starting the genny tomorrow mid afternoon... right around 5:30pm. I'm sure all the people coming home from work will get a kick out of me unloading the large gas tanks (not filled, but in storage) from my truck too. FPL went ahead and knocked out my power last night after the phins game for about 10 seconds... almost like a warning shot. lol

I've got (4) of these bad boys "30gal ea"... http://www.northerntool.com/images/prod ... 035_lg.jpg

eric, do you mind saying how much they were each?

[SouthFLTropics]

well i just went by stacey stewarts house and there are 5 guys out there filling sandbags and another 2 guys putting up 1 inch thick shutters,


how about those pwats approaching 3 with plenty of lift to wring it all out, you dont see that setup very often, did start the generator yesterday, neighbors were asking questions told them to be ready for the next 14 days

I'm planning on starting the genny tomorrow mid afternoon... right around 5:30pm. I'm sure all the people coming home from work will get a kick out of me unloading the large gas tanks (not filled, but in storage) from my truck too. FPL went ahead and knocked out my power last night after the phins game for about 10 seconds... almost like a warning shot. lol

I've got (4) of these bad boys "30gal ea"... http://www.northerntool.com/images/prod ... 035_lg.jpg

eric, do you mind saying how much they were each?

I just looked them up on Northern Tool...For $399.99 you can take one home yourself!

http://www.northerntool.com/shop/tools/ ... rch=145035

[SouthFLTropics]

well i just went by stacey stewarts house and there are 5 guys out there filling sandbags and another 2 guys putting up 1 inch thick shutters,


how about those pwats approaching 3 with plenty of lift to wring it all out, you dont see that setup very often, did start the generator yesterday, neighbors were asking questions told them to be ready for the next 14 days

I'm planning on starting the genny tomorrow mid afternoon... right around 5:30pm. I'm sure all the people coming home from work will get a kick out of me unloading the large gas tanks (not filled, but in storage) from my truck too. FPL went ahead and knocked out my power last night after the phins game for about 10 seconds... almost like a warning shot. lol

I've got (4) of these bad boys "30gal ea"... http://www.northerntool.com/images/prod ... 035_lg.jpg

FPL must be sending out region wide warning shots...My power got knocked out for about 10 seconds early this morning. Coincidence...I THINK NOT!!!

SFT

[ericinmia]

eric, do you mind saying how much they were each?

http://www.northerntool.com/shop/tools/ ... _200338576
I think I got them last year with a 25% off coupon that I received after buying a pressure washer, and a few other things. They are Incredibly well built, with a gas guage, suck or pump, grounded nozzles with an alligator clip grounding wire attached to the unit, heck they even came with a roll of PFTE tape to seal the threads when you do the fill nozzle and gauge install (which took less than 5 min). I was very impressed with their saftey and multi uses. I don't like the idea of having tons of plastic gas cans everywhere, and need a lot of gas because I take care of my ailing parents and they need some creature comforts. I looked at these tanks as a Long term investment, easily beyond the genny's life.

Also the pump is self priming...

[jlauderdal]

well i just went by stacey stewarts house and there are 5 guys out there filling sandbags and another 2 guys putting up 1 inch thick shutters,


how about those pwats approaching 3 with plenty of lift to wring it all out, you dont see that setup very often, did start the generator yesterday, neighbors were asking questions told them to be ready for the next 14 days

I'm planning on starting the genny tomorrow mid afternoon... right around 5:30pm. I'm sure all the people coming home from work will get a kick out of me unloading the large gas tanks (not filled, but in storage) from my truck too. FPL went ahead and knocked out my power last night after the phins game for about 10 seconds... almost like a warning shot. lol

I've got (4) of these bad boys "30gal ea"... http://www.northerntool.com/images/prod ... 035_lg.jpg

that is sweet, i have 10-5 gallon tanks ready to be filled for the big guy, dont know if we will need it for this one but flooding can play havoc on power also especially if lines are underground, im above ground because i am on east side but 30 mph takes down the FPL grid here,

you will notice my avatar has changed to my generator model

[artist]

eric, do you mind saying how much they were each?

http://www.northerntool.com/shop/tools/ ... _200338576
I think I got them last year with a 25% off coupon that I received after buying a pressure washer, and a few other things. They are Incredibly well built, with a gas guage, suck or pump, grounded nozzles with an alligator clip grounding wire attached to the unit, heck they even came with a roll of PFTE tape to seal the threads when you do the fill nozzle and gauge install (which took less than 5 min). I was very impressed with their saftey and multi uses. I don't like the idea of having tons of plastic gas cans everywhere, and need a lot of gas because I take care of my ailing parents and they need some creature comforts. I looked at these tanks as a Long term investment, easily beyond the genny's life.

Also the pump is self priming...

thanks eric. They sound solid. I guess I need to watch for a coupon!

[AdamFirst]

Comcast installed on my house several weeks ago and the guy seemed to be in a bad mood. I'm just waiting for some strong tropical gusts to tear the cables off the telephone pole in the backyard...

[artist]

things sure are quiet around here with almost 300 people online...

So is anyone surprised the rain is going to come in starting tomorrow rather than Wed as first thought?

[CourierPR]

Can we get back on topic?

[KWT]

Jeez still no invest...gosh the NHC were keen on many other systems that nothing forecasted to develop but when we have model support for a possible LF system, be it possibly weak...the NHC stil refuse to invest it even when its at 30%!