Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[AdamFirst]

things sure are quiet around here with almost 300 people online...

So is anyone surprised the rain is going to come in starting tomorrow rather than Wed as first thought?

I thought tomorrow's rain was influenced by the stationary front?

I could see flood watches going up for the entire peninsula south of I-4 by tonight

[canes04]

I live in Doral and it floods here with an afternoon thunderstorm.
Can't imagine if we get 8 to 12 inched of rain. Guess I would need to keep a lookout for Gators im my yard.

Anyway, if this develops an LLC today look out.

[boca]

The area east of Cozumel cloud tops seem to be warming put I do see inflow and cyclonic turning in this area.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-vis.html

[Evil Jeremy]

I think I see a LLC or eddy with the blob close to the Yucatan. Look mainly in the last couple frames on the east side of the blob. You might want to zoom in even though it won't change the resolution:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

Am I crazy?

[CourierPR]

Jeez still no invest...gosh the NHC were keen on many other systems that nothing forecasted to develop but when we have model support for a possible LF system, be it possibly weak...the NHC stil refuse to invest it even when its at 30%!

I agree because this system does appear to be getting better organized by the hour.

[SouthDadeFish]

Vorticity favors a center to develop just to W of the eastern blob of convection.

[caneseddy]

Here is the 12Z NAM loop

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Vortmax1]

This area is listed as a "Special Feature" and still no declared Invest?
That's a rarity.

[AdamFirst]

NHC & NWS offices are probably fighting with each other on how to work this initially.

I think this will be tagged as an invest very very soon.

[Tropics Guy]

Looking at the latest visibles & vorticity maps, seems like there is good rotation developing east of Cozumel, IMO think that is where the LLC will / is developing. Stunned that there is no invest for this yet.......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

TG

[boca]

I think I see a LLC or eddy with the blob close to the Yucatan. Look mainly in the last couple frames on the east side of the blob. You might want to zoom in even though it won't change the resolution:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

Am I crazy?

No your not because I see the same thing which would make us both crazy.

[artist]

does anyone know if the plane has left yet? It was to take off at 14:30z which it is now 15:30z.

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 27/1430Z
D. 18.0N 85.0W
E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[ROCK]

I think I see a LLC or eddy with the blob close to the Yucatan. Look mainly in the last couple frames on the east side of the blob. You might want to zoom in even though it won't change the resolution:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

Am I crazy?

we were watching that last night....there is a buoy in the area.....I think we have 2 competing LLC out there..right next to each other....

[KWT]

Yeah this just has to be an invest within the next few hours, It is indeed amazing how this still isn't an invest even now...

Slowly getting there but odds are this remains weak...probably gotten lucky that the upper trough has dug so very deep.

[Evil Jeremy]

Up to 40% (at least) at 2PM. If organization continues, maybe up to 50%, but I doubt it, seeing how the NHC has treated this system so far.

[boca]

This area is listed as a "Special Feature" and still no declared Invest?
That's a rarity.

Do you have a link to the special feature.

[Vortmax1]

CARCAH hasn't updated the POD yet and there is no flight in the air.

[Vortmax1]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1148.shtml?

[CourierPR]

Yeah this just has to be an invest within the next few hours, It is indeed amazing how this still isn't an invest even now...

Slowly getting there but odds are this remains weak...probably gotten lucky that the upper trough has dug so very deep.

I disagree that this will remain weak. I have a bad feeling that we may be in for a surprise.

[ROCK]

buoy in the Yucatan Channel

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056