Global model runs discussion

[TampaFl]

Look out Eastern Gulf of Mexico!!

This run will surely change over time but with the Euro now calling for what looks like a major hurricane in 7-10 days this cannot be ignored. Any one from the Central Gulf to Florida & the Southeast US need to watch what transpires over the next week to 10 days.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005070800!!!step/

[ospreygrad]

Look out Eastern Gulf of Mexico!!

This run will surely change over time but with the Euro now calling for what looks like a major hurricane in 7-10 days this cannot be ignored. Any one from the Central Gulf to Florida & the Southeast US need to watch what transpires over the next week to 10 days.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005070800!!!step/

Yes indeed. This is something that definitely will command our attention in the coming days!

[Frank2]

The 00Z GFS now keeps the low moving NNE east of Florida (yesterday's 00Z run showed the low just east of Miami), and it makes sense, especially if the EC trough and cut off low forms as shown:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

P.S. Temps in the 30s north of the US border (New England) this morning - Fall is here (almost)...

[hurricaneCW]

The 00Z GFS now keeps the low moving NNE east of Florida (yesterday's 00Z run showed the low just east of Miami), and it makes sense, especially if the EC trough and cut off low forms as shown:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

Well the 06Z gfs changes things up again and several other models like the CMC and Euro now place the low further west into the eastern Gulf. The 00Z gfs track does make sense with regards to how the pattern would unfold on that run but that's only 1 run in the long range and the gfs is clearly having a difficult time analyzing the upper patterns and how they interact with the tropical disturbance. I'd favor the gulf solution more than the east of Florida track right now unless the trough does become that powerful and cuts off.

[gatorcane]

The 00Z GFS now keeps the low moving NNE east of Florida (yesterday's 00Z run showed the low just east of Miami), and it makes sense, especially if the EC trough and cut off low forms as shown:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

06z gfs through se Florida. Euro looks like it is headed north in the eastern gom............

Going to need to watch this one here in south florida. Most of south Florida hits are from the Caribbean.

[Frank2]

It's definitely something for us to keep an eye on...

We'll see what happens, though the thought that came to my mind this morning was that the high will remain strong enough that the disturbance will be headed for Central America...

Again, we'll see, though folks down there know this is a critical time of year for them as well, since October can be a problem for them (and us) when it comes to a disturbance that moves into the western Caribbean...

[SouthFLTropics]

The 00Z GFS now keeps the low moving NNE east of Florida (yesterday's 00Z run showed the low just east of Miami), and it makes sense, especially if the EC trough and cut off low forms as shown:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

06z gfs through se Florida. Euro looks like it is headed north in the eastern gom............

Going to need to watch this one here in south florida. Most of south Florida hits are from the Caribbean.

Gotta agree with you Gatorcane...At present I'm thinking of a blend of a 1999 Irene/2005 Wilma track. Somewhere in between possibly. We shall see how the models trend but with the consistency of the models this year it is definitely got my attention...

SFT

[HURRICANELONNY]

So some people believe that this trough will be as big as Wilma's. Which was the end of October and the temps. went into the 50's that night. I don't think the trough will be close to what some of the models are depicting. I bet the models will change drastically. Because that is what they do. Everyone from Texas to the whole east coast should keep 1 eye on this possible development.

[Aquawind]

Ahh 50's....dreamy.. IF the low forecast along the frontal boundry to the north strengthens and a major hurricane rides up the front they could pull down a healthy shot of cool n dry air..

[Steve H.]

12Z GFS just seems too fast and too weak in this setup. It basically shears this system in the Caribbean then intensifies it as it gets off the mid-Atlantic Coast. Seems a bit extreme. It also leaves a piece of energy in the NW Caribbean. Think this trough is overstated. But it will change again. Actually its pretty close to the 0Z Euro.

[cycloneye]

Long range GFS shows the second system really cranking up.

[hurricanedude]

wasnt there windchill advisories in wake of wilma for much of central and south florida?

[Wx_Warrior]

Yep...florida again

[Brent]

[cycloneye]

12z at 336 has a Lenny type lefty over me.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_336l.gif

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yes there were Hurricanedude.

[cycloneye]

The real big one is the last one that 18z GFS has.Image doesn't change as it was uploaded at imageshack.us.

[caneseddy]

The 12Z GFS out to next Monday has a strengthening system passing over Cuba heading towards SE Florida (one after the current feature)]

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal156.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

12z euro

[HURAKAN]

The image shows Otto and Paula or Paula and Richard?