Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[HURAKAN]

Nice SST image by NASA

[boca]

Yes It looks like whatever forms will be pushed out to the east by that digging trough, it will be close but I think the rain will be just to our east in florida.

[wxman57]

Good point, I was thinking the ridge behind the front was much stronger than 1012, but I went back and looked at the surface forecast and you are correct. Thanks!

Of course, the above discussion makes the big assumption that the GFS' prediction of a 996mb low is correct. Given the short time for development, though, it may not be far off. I still cannot identify any LLC on satellite. Surface obs suggest something may be located just east of the Yucatan southeast of Cozumel.

[artist]

S TAT E O F F L O R I D A
D I V I S I O N O F E M E R G E N C Y M A N A G E M E N T
CHARLIE CRIST
Governor
DAVID HALSTEAD
Director
F L O R I D A R E C O V E R Y O F F I C E • D I V I S I O N H E A D Q U A R T E R S • STATE LOGISTICS RESPONSE CENTER
3 6 Sk yl i ne Dr i v e 2 5 5 5 S h uma r d Oa k B o u l e v a r d 2 70 2 Di r ec t o r s Row
L ak e Ma r y, FL 32 7 4 6 - 6 2 01 T a l l a h a s s e e , F L 3 2 3 9 9 - 2 1 0 0 Or l an d o, FL 3 2 80 9 - 56 3 1
Tel : 850-413- 9 9 6 9 • Fax: 850 -488-1016
http://www.Fl or i daDisaster .org
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: PUBLIC INFORMATION
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 24, 2010 (850) 413-9969
http://www.FloridaDisaster.org
FLORIDA EMERGENCY MANAGERS ENCOURAGE ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO
MONITOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND
TALLAHASSEE—Division of Emergency Management (DEM) officials are encouraging
Florida residents and visitors to closely monitor the progress of the current tropical system
in the Caribbean Sea and to update their family disaster plans and supply kits. No official
forecasts place Florida in the path of any tropical systems at this time, but favorable
conditions for rapid tropical development and strengthening do exist in the region.
“Though none of the current tropical systems are a threat to Florida, they have the potential
to organize and intensify quickly,” said Florida Division of Emergency Management Director
David Halstead. “Our team will closely monitor the active tropical situation in the Caribbean
Sea and take any necessary preparatory steps to protect Floridians. I strongly encourage
everyone to follow this storm closely through the weekend and to take this opportunity to
review and update their family and business disaster plans and supply kits.”
Based on historical trends, September is among the most active times in the Atlantic
Hurricane Season. Florida already experienced a tropical impact in July, when Tropical
Storm Bonnie made landfall in the Florida Keys and parts of South Florida. While no
significant injuries or damage to infrastructure were reported as a result of that system, the
storm should serve as a reminder that all Floridians should develop a disaster survival plan
and maintain an emergency supply kit.
“As September ends, tropical systems are more likely to form and develop quickly in the
Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in less preparation time for the Gulf
States,” said Deputy State Meteorologist Michelle Palmer. “Floridians should remember the
damage caused by Hurricane Wilma in 2005, a late-season system that after gaining
Tropical Storm status in the Caribbean reached Category 5 Hurricane strength within 24
hours.”

http://www.floridadisaster.org/eoc/Pres ... 202010.pdf

[HURAKAN]

Vorticity keeps increasing

[ObsessedMiami]

S TAT E O F F L O R I D A
D I V I S I O N O F E M E R G E N C Y M A N A G E M E N T
CHARLIE CRIST
Governor
DAVID HALSTEAD
Director
F L O R I D A R E C O V E R Y O F F I C E • D I V I S I O N H E A D Q U A R T E R S • STATE LOGISTICS RESPONSE CENTER
3 6 Sk yl i ne Dr i v e 2 5 5 5 S h uma r d Oa k B o u l e v a r d 2 70 2 Di r ec t o r s Row
L ak e Ma r y, FL 32 7 4 6 - 6 2 01 T a l l a h a s s e e , F L 3 2 3 9 9 - 2 1 0 0 Or l an d o, FL 3 2 80 9 - 56 3 1
Tel : 850-413- 9 9 6 9 • Fax: 850 -488-1016
http://www.Fl or i daDisaster .org
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: PUBLIC INFORMATION
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 24, 2010 (850) 413-9969
http://www.FloridaDisaster.org
FLORIDA EMERGENCY MANAGERS ENCOURAGE ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO
MONITOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND

http://www.floridadisaster.org/eoc/Pres ... 202010.pdf

That is from Friday. They haven't updated it, have they?

[abajan]

I live in Doral and it floods here with an afternoon thunderstorm.
Can't imagine if we get 8 to 12 inched of rain. Guess I would need to keep a lookout for Gators im my yard.

Anyway, if this develops an LLC today look out.

Apologies for straying a bit off topic but apparently a single thunderstorm can produce rainfall of that order. Look at what happened on September 8, 1872 in Barbados.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Aric Dunn]

Good point, I was thinking the ridge behind the front was much stronger than 1012, but I went back and looked at the surface forecast and you are correct. Thanks!

Of course, the above discussion makes the big assumption that the GFS' prediction of a 996mb low is correct. Given the short time for development, though, it may not be far off. I still cannot identify any LLC on satellite. Surface obs suggest something may be located just east of the Yucatan southeast of Cozumel.

yeah maybe something east of Cozumel but its weak and still no northerly winds anywhere near by..

[Blown Away]

Vorticity keeps increasing

The vorticity map would suggest a LLC may develop near 18N/83W, but it does look like there is turning just SE of Cozumel?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

This is todays TCPOD. The mission by an Air Force plane for this afternoon was canceled.

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KNHC 271630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT MON 27 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-118

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
        A. 28/1800Z
        B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
        C. 28/1530Z
        D. 20.0N 85.0W
        E. 28/1700Z TO 28/2300Z
        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

        FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
        A. 29/0600,1200Z
        B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE
        C. 29/0315Z
        D. 21.5N 84.5W
        E. 29/0500Z TO 29/1200Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

     2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
        BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES AT 29/1500Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

     3. TASKING FOR AF AND G-IV MISSIONS AT 28/1800Z, 29/06
        AND 1200Z WERE CANX BY NHC AT 1115Z.

     3. REMARK: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR RESEARCH
        MISSION INTO AND AROUND THE SUSPECT AREA BETWEEEN
        41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 28/1200Z.


[hurricaneCW]

A lot of hype for well over a week, but the end result will only be a sheared TS. Of course that's only for the first Caribbean system, who knows what future systems could do.

The whole pattern does look like a prime recipe for early autumn noreasters with a bit of a tropical kick to them meaning much more moisture than usual. After the first storm is gone, the gfs takes the next storm on a similar track with similar intensity through Florida and up the coast once again. Then at the end up the run, we have another Caribbean low developing.

If anyone wants a strong storm to form, the pattern would have to change from that strong and broad eastern trough to a broad ridge. That way the upper level environment would be far more favorable and the storms would enter the gulf of mexico rather than Florida and up the coast.

[latitude_20]

Recon update:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 271630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT MON 27 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-118

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 28/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 28/1530Z
D. 20.0N 85.0W
E. 28/1700Z TO 28/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 29/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE
C. 29/0315Z
D. 21.5N 84.5W
E. 29/0500Z TO 29/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES AT 29/1500Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

3. TASKING FOR AF AND G-IV MISSIONS AT 28/1800Z, 29/06
AND 1200Z WERE CANX BY NHC AT 1115Z.

3. REMARK: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR RESEARCH
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THE SUSPECT AREA BETWEEEN
41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 28/1200Z.

[artist]

S TAT E O F F L O R I D A
D I V I S I O N O F E M E R G E N C Y M A N A G E M E N T
CHARLIE CRIST
Governor
DAVID HALSTEAD
Director
F L O R I D A R E C O V E R Y O F F I C E • D I V I S I O N H E A D Q U A R T E R S • STATE LOGISTICS RESPONSE CENTER
3 6 Sk yl i ne Dr i v e 2 5 5 5 S h uma r d Oa k B o u l e v a r d 2 70 2 Di r ec t o r s Row
L ak e Ma r y, FL 32 7 4 6 - 6 2 01 T a l l a h a s s e e , F L 3 2 3 9 9 - 2 1 0 0 Or l an d o, FL 3 2 80 9 - 56 3 1
Tel : 850-413- 9 9 6 9 • Fax: 850 -488-1016
http://www.Fl or i daDisaster .org
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: PUBLIC INFORMATION
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 24, 2010 (850) 413-9969
http://www.FloridaDisaster.org
FLORIDA EMERGENCY MANAGERS ENCOURAGE ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO
MONITOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND

http://www.floridadisaster.org/eoc/Pres ... 202010.pdf

That is from Friday. They haven't updated it, have they?

actually they didn't have it on there Friday. It just showed up today, as well as the video. I have been on their site all weekend. That is what I thought was strange.

[dwsqos2]

I am going to laugh if whatever comes of this isn't classified. Of course, Barry of 2007 was, so this probably will marginally meet the definition of tc.

[northjaxpro]

A lot of hype for well over a week, but the end result will only be a sheared TS. Of course that's only for the first Caribbean system, who knows what future systems could do.

The whole pattern does look like a prime recipe for early autumn noreasters with a bit of a tropical kick to them meaning much more moisture than usual. After the first storm is gone, the gfs takes the next storm on a similar track with similar intensity through Florida and up the coast once again. Then at the end up the run, we have another Caribbean low developing.

If anyone wants a strong storm to form, the pattern would have to change from that strong and broad eastern trough to a broad ridge. That way the upper level environment would be far more favorable and the storms would enter the gulf of mexico rather than Florida and up the coast.

Good point. But I think we will be locked into this pattern for much of October.

I am signing in for the first time and I enjoy Storm2k.org. This is a very good site to read and that I have done quite frequently in the past. However, I decided to now be a member. I am in Jacksonville and like all of you, am really watching what takes shape over these next 7-10 days. Like many of the members here on this site from the state, I will come on here to update everyone on how conditions will be when this system traverses the area later this week, especially on its closest approach to North Florida.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Is that matthew's remnant low about to enter into the BOC? Still showing a strong vorticity there. With weak steering currents, that could fester in the BOC until the next low dips down in a few days. -or is it pegged to head further west and remain over land?

[artist]

I am going to laugh if whatever comes of this isn't classified. Of course, Barry of 2007 was, so this probably will marginally meet the definition of tc.

my biggest concern is the rains. South Florida is already saturated. It will not take much of anything to cause lots of flooding to occur.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
955 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, FLOODING POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SATUS QUO EXPECT WITH SOME QUICK PASSING SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE
WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION EXPECTED TO UNFOLD TUE-WED WITH THE MAIN IMPACT EXPECTED
TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE TOWARDS WESTERN CUBA
TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS SOUTH FL ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THOUGH
INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

REGARDLESS OF TC DEVELOPMENT...COPIUS TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SERVICE AREA TONIGHT-TUE...REMAINING IN PLACE
ON WED AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL
PROBABLY MOVE TO OUR EAST BY THU. IN THE MEANTIME...CIRA
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS PW`S NEARING THE 3 INCH MARK OVER
THE WESTERN CARIB! WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW DIVING INTO DIXIE. THIS WILL FORCE THE
CARIBBEAN MOISTURE N-NE INTO THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW PW`S APPROACHING MAX HISTORICAL VALUES
HERE BY WED MORNING...AND WITH THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE LOW...THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH FL. (OF COURSE...SHOULD THE LOW
MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST...THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WOULD BE MUCH
LOWER. HOWEVER...MODEL CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST WEEK PUTS THIS
POSSIBILITY AT VERY LOW.)

GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL SHOW THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRING ALONG THE SE
FL COAST. INTERESTING TO SEE THAT THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW WHAT
WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINBAND MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG OUR SE
COAST TUE NIGHT-WED AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS. HAVE
ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FL TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH THE OUTLOOK
COVERS ALL OF SOUTH FL...INCLUDING THE GREATER NAPLES AREA...THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DOES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS TUE NIGHT-WED. HPC QPF SHOWS AREAL
AVG RAIN AMOUNTS OF AROUND 4" GULF COAST TO 5-6" ATLANTIC COAST. A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER FCST ISSUANCES...SO STAY
TUNED. /GREGORIA

[northjaxpro]

Is that matthew's remnant low about to enter into the BOC? Still showing a strong vorticity there. With weak steering currents, that could fester in the BOC until the next low dips down in a few days. -or is it pegged to head further west and remain over land?

That is Matthew's remnants, but that will be steered into Mexico. High Pressure centered over the Southern Plains is building down behind the deep Eastewrn CONUS upper trough, so the clockwise flow around the Big High will funnel the remnants westward.