ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009271819
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NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2010, DB, O, 2010092718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962010
AL, 96, 2010092618, , BEST, 0, 170N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092700, , BEST, 0, 175N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092706, , BEST, 0, 180N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092712, , BEST, 0, 185N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092718, , BEST, 0, 190N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[KWT]

Wow 3 threads at once, people really are keen!

About time they finally invested this broad mass, main issue will be rains but I do suspect we get Nicole from this even if it is just a rainmaker.

We'll see though, things can change fast!

[Evil Jeremy]

I look forward to tracking 96L as Nicole.... 24 hours after is should be named.

[ObsessedMiami]

I just wanted to post here to say..."FINALLY". I feel like I had a baby with Invest 96L finally out.

[Evil Jeremy]

Here is a suggestion I had last night: Perhaps we should keep the old thread open, to discuss all the possible systems that could spawn from this unusual setup. We used that thread to discuss this system, and the other ones the models were forecasting to coming from this system over the next week or so, so can we use that thread to discuss said possible future systems since there has been so much talking about them in that thread already?

[northjaxpro]

Well for those folks who have been anxiously awaiting NHC to declare our disutrbed area as invest 96L, your desires have finally been granted.

[HURAKAN]

Re-issued:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
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201009271821
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NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2010, DB, O, 2010092718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962010
AL, 96, 2010092618, , BEST, 0, 170N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092700, , BEST, 0, 175N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092706, , BEST, 0, 180N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092712, , BEST, 0, 185N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010092718, , BEST, 0, 190N, 860W, 25, 1003, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

[ronjon]

Atlantic 500 mb ridging holding tough - the cold front is having a hard time pushing into the FL peninsula. Multiple CC vortices in the NW caribbean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[ROCK]

man, for a second I thought the thread was actually moved to a FL severe weather thread....

as posted earlier.....2 MLC's I can see..one by Cozumel weakening and the other near Cayman ( which I think is the main one attm)......nothing at the surface as you have outflow boundaries all around this convection...

[ROCK]

one thing I did notice is that ULL didnt stick around as long as some of the models had it....already moving east and eventually NE.....

[northjaxpro]

man, for a second I thought the thread was actually moved to a FL severe weather thread....

as posted earlier.....2 MLC's I can see..one by Cozumel weakening and the other near Cayman ( which I think is the main one attm)......nothing at the surface as you have outflow boundaries all around this convection...

Yep, Rock the circulation near the Caymans will indeed become the dominant Low Pressure area to spin up Nicole.

[latitude_20]

Wonder how long it'll take them to get a floater on this?

[ROCK]

Wonder how long it'll take them to get a floater on this?

go to RAMM site..4km floater just fine...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[KWT]

I just wanted to post here to say..."FINALLY". I feel like I had a baby with Invest 96L finally out.

Yeah I know how you feel, its taken much longer then it should have to get this system invested, esp given near total model support, but there ya go!

Cayman MLC probably will be the one that takes over...

Radar watching will be fun over the next 96hrs or so for Florida!

[Aric Dunn]

man, for a second I thought the thread was actually moved to a FL severe weather thread....

as posted earlier.....2 MLC's I can see..one by Cozumel weakening and the other near Cayman ( which I think is the main one attm)......nothing at the surface as you have outflow boundaries all around this convection...

nothing to suggest anything with the Cozumel vort.. but the cayman vort has some surface reflection ( as I mentioned earlier) with some SSW winds on the western Cayman islands and SSE winds over the eastern Cayman islands.. suggesting something possibly trying to work to the surface in that area.. nothing too impressive but the only indications thus far..

[HURAKAN]

Maybe tonight's DMAX burst will produce a LLC. Pressures are very low in the area already.

[latitude_20]

Looks like the whole Caribbean is turning

[KWT]

Yeah Aric, also given how broad the region of low pressure is its going to take a while to really pull itself together, its why I can't see this being too strong before extratropical forces starts to work on it maybe as soon as 72-96hrs.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah Aric, also given how broad the region of low pressure is its going to take a while to really pull itself together, its why I can't see this being too strong before extratropical forces starts to work on it maybe as soon as 72-96hrs.

its really up in the air since the whole monsoon trough is really not moving and the once something gets going its could strengthen faster that forecast since the NW carrib is quite favorable..

[petit_bois]

Looking at the infrared... tops are cooling rapidly.
Outflow boundries too?