ATL: NICOLE - Models

[cycloneye]

All models here.

[HURAKAN]

I was finally able to get something in S2K before the Luis the Great!!!

[KWT]

Looks like the models suggest this may go sub/extra tropical by the time it gets towards the Carolinas at the weekend, it'd certainly make sense given jsut how far south the trough has dug...

[cycloneye]

I was finally able to get something in S2K before the Luis the Great!!!

LOL, a few seconds of difference ,but the important thing is that we have the invest.

[KWT]

ECM suggests a track close to the speed and placement of the GFS, something like a much weaker Irene perhaps trackwise, probably turning extratropical near the Carolinas.

[cycloneye]

18z tropical models

Code: Select all

 KWBC 271823

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1823 UTC MON SEP 27 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100927 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100927  1800   100928  0600   100928  1800   100929  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.0N  86.0W   19.6N  86.0W   19.3N  86.0W   18.7N  84.9W
BAMD    19.0N  86.0W   19.4N  85.8W   19.2N  85.4W   19.7N  84.1W
BAMM    19.0N  86.0W   19.5N  85.9W   19.2N  85.8W   18.8N  84.7W
LBAR    19.0N  86.0W   19.8N  85.7W   20.9N  85.8W   22.6N  85.8W
SHIP        25KTS          33KTS          43KTS          52KTS
DSHP        25KTS          33KTS          43KTS          52KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100929  1800   100930  1800   101001  1800   101002  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.7N  82.5W   24.4N  78.0W   28.4N  75.7W   30.9N  75.3W
BAMD    21.4N  82.6W   26.4N  79.0W   30.6N  74.7W   34.2N  66.4W
BAMM    19.8N  82.6W   24.2N  78.7W   27.5N  76.0W   30.4N  74.4W
LBAR    25.2N  85.7W   31.0N  84.4W   34.8N  78.3W   39.3N  66.2W
SHIP        62KTS          71KTS          76KTS          69KTS
DSHP        62KTS          63KTS          69KTS          61KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  19.0N LONCUR =  86.0W DIRCUR =   0DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  18.0N LONM12 =  86.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  17.0N LONM24 =  86.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  300NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
 


[KWT]

Slowly heading due north looking at the SHIPS estimated motion, pretty much just confirms what all the models have been showing us recently...

[HURAKAN]

Track

[ColinDelia]

The 18z SHIPS was run off the BAMM track BTW.

[ROCK]

BAMMs are worthless at this lat but they do show a east of FL track....

[KWT]

Yeah they are probably a good deal too far east but they probably have broadly the right idea of how this set-up will play out with a bend to the NNE occuring soon...

[Trader Ron]

Ships 71 kts in 72 hours?

[KWT]

Yeah thats pretty decent but obviously they are working on the assumption this already has a closed low level circulation which it almost certainly doesn't have just yet...

[ROCK]

Also why do the BAMMs initialize that far west? it pretty obvious that the main MLC is near the caymans....

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 20.7N 82.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.09.2010 20.7N 82.9W MODERATE
12UTC 29.09.2010 23.2N 81.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 30.09.2010 25.7N 80.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 30.09.2010 30.2N 79.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2010 35.7N 78.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2010 43.0N 70.9W EXTRA-TROPICAL

[ronjon]

12z UKMET: Further west like the 12z CMC.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ukmet/12zukmet500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalukmetLoop.html

[KWT]

Yeah the trough is a little sharper which allows this system to lift out somewhat more to the north...I'd still put my money on the GFS/ECM given just how close they are in agreement with each other.

[artist]

I wonder if that research flight has given them data.
As soon as I posted this btangy posted this in the discussion thread-

PREDICT NCAR-GV flight summary today. Mission is wrapping up and we found a bit of surprise...

We found an elongated circulation stretching from the two main convective blobs from 19N, 85W to 18.5N, 80.5W. There is a large region of southwesterlies and westerlies N of Honduras and a very well defined circulation above the boundary layer at 700 mb. There is a very sharp wave or warm front-like axis at 925 mb with strongly veering winds with height along this boundary. Maximum near-surface winds are about 25 knots. This data surprised us as we expected to find a broad circulation, as seen in the models, but it appears something may be quickly developing around the vicinity of these two convective blobs in the NW Caribbean. If the circulation can consolidate some, then Nicole, or "Matthew's daughter" as we're calling it, may be born soon.

We'll be flying this same region tomorrow.

[srainhoutx]

Split camp. UKMET, CMC suggests West Coast and GFS Euro suggest East Coast of Florida.

[btangy]

I wonder if that research flight has given them data.
As soon as I posted this btangy posted this in the discussion thread-

PREDICT NCAR-GV flight summary today. Mission is wrapping up and we found a bit of surprise...

We found an elongated circulation stretching from the two main convective blobs from 19N, 85W to 18.5N, 80.5W. There is a large region of southwesterlies and westerlies N of Honduras and a very well defined circulation above the boundary layer at 700 mb. There is a very sharp wave or warm front-like axis at 925 mb with strongly veering winds with height along this boundary. Maximum near-surface winds are about 25 knots. This data surprised us as we expected to find a broad circulation, as seen in the models, but it appears something may be quickly developing around the vicinity of these two convective blobs in the NW Caribbean. If the circulation can consolidate some, then Nicole, or "Matthew's daughter" as we're calling it, may be born soon.

We'll be flying this same region tomorrow.

Note that this data will go in to the 00Z ECMWF tonight.