ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Eric, are you just trying to draw Stewie Griffin?

Who is Stewie Griffin

[SouthFloridawx]

Eric, are you just trying to draw Stewie Griffin?

Who is Stewie Griffin

Stewie Griffin...

[ColinDelia]

This reminds me of the conversations when Danielle was forming. Remember this?

[hurricaneCW]

Wow just look how deep the trough is digging. It's just getting ready to suck up all that Caribbean moisture and throw it northward. The pattern is more like late October, early November than late September. I know some people believe that because it's September, that's its possible to get these types of trough so far south, and I say that while it's possible, it's quite rare. This trough in late September could correlate to the trough that picked up Charley in August. This trough is more November like while the trough that picked up Charley in August was very late September/October like.

[Vortmax1]

The initialization is based on a consensus of model forecasts. They've been jumping around a lot, so the apparent initialization over the Yucatan and movement toward the E is a bit erroneous. It appears that an increasingly dominant circulation develops over the NW Caribbean that's part of a larger monsoon gyre while Matthew's circulation is a lobe on the W side of this gyre. It is a very complex scenario to say the least!

I understand.
Thank you for catching and answering my question Btangy!

[sunnyday]

This is not a forecast of any kind.
If this mess misses S Fl, I would have to say that the people there must lead charmed lives. I understand from a friend there that the PB Post is saying up to 4 inches of rain or more for the area.....

[artist]

The PREDICT team has never completely given up on the Remnants of Matthew being involved.
Is that the reason for the Yucatan initialization now?

The initialization is based on a consensus of model forecasts. They've been jumping around a lot, so the apparent initialization over the Yucatan and movement toward the E is a bit erroneous. It appears that an increasingly dominant circulation develops over the NW Caribbean that's part of a larger monsoon gyre while Matthew's circulation is a lobe on the W side of this gyre. It is a very complex scenario to say the least!

I am sooo glad you brought this up. Can you explain to everyone what a monsoon gyre is? There are lots of us that are amateurs here and I know traditionally this is seen in the western Pacific.

[Aric Dunn]

This may take longer to be pulled north.. There is such a narrow window for this to move through that its like trying to push a baseball through a hose.. The Low may lift out faster than expected leaving it all behind till the next short wave comes along.. whats odd is that we have a bit of a blocking pattern over the western atlantic with a fairly strong bermuda high set up really for the first time this season.. that low over the SE is going to start racing north very soon and the window will close very quickly to.. I do not expect it to really get left behind but its something to watch especially if it takes even longer to develop.

[artist]

This is not a forecast of any kind.
If this mess misses S Fl, I would have to say that the people there must lead charmed lives. I understand from a friend there that the PB Post is saying up to 4 inches of rain or more for the area.....

actually the NWS Miami has mentioned the possibility of 2-4" per hour.

...GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRING
ALONG THE SE FL COAST. INTERESTING TO SEE THAT THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH SHOW WHAT WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINBAND MOVING NORTHWARD
ALONG OUR SE COAST TUE NIGHT-WED AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS AS RAINFALL RATES COULD BE 2-4"/HR GIVEN THE WARM, EXTREMELY
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE EXPECTED....

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsBySta ... discussion

[Vortex]

18z rolls in 15...storm1 and 2 to roll shorty...

[artist]

here is the flight sounding loop from the research flight earlier today by PREDICT-
http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/predict/loop.pl

[artist]

PREDICT Operations Plan of the Day
Date of report(UTC): 2010/09/27 20:34
Author of report: Vidal Salazar
Submitted at: 2010/09/27 20:35
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TODAY'S SUMMARY:
Monday 27 September

Research flight rf24 in progress.
ETA at St Croix is 1945Z

TOMORROW'S MISSION:
Tuesday 28 September

Research flight rf25 - Block center point: 16.8N 84.25W
0530 L Techs & Mechs on site
0545 L Power & Access
0800 L Takeoff
Duration: 8 hours

[gatorcane]

convection really deepening near the Yucatan.......could a low be forming there? If so, South Florida could be getting the worst of whatever comes out of this

[gatorcane]

Also, as the HPC noted earlier this week, often time models are too bullish on ejecting systems out of the Caribbean. It may never make it out of the Caribbean

[Evil Jeremy]

Also, as the HPC noted earlier this week, often time models are too bullish on ejecting systems out of the Caribbean. It may never make it out of the Caribbean

True, models sometimes throw storms out of the Caribbean and it doesn't happen.......... but have you seen this through?

[Bocadude85]

Still looks like a disorganized mess to me.. I really do not think this makes ts strength IMHO.

[Vortex]

slowly organizing this evening...

[HURAKAN]

Until a LLC does develop, it will look like a mess. The LLC could form as early as tomorrow in my opinion. it's normal for these systems to look like that in the afternoon, but if we look at everything that is present, I don't know how you can go against development.

[gatorcane]

Still looks like a disorganized mess to me.. I really do not think this makes ts strength IMHO.

slowly organizing this evening...

Ahh the world of storm2k.

It's organizing...it's not organizing....yes it is...no it isn't....

[Vortex]

18Z GFS rides nicole right up the SE FL coast late wednesday..