ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

#121 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:01 pm

I was looking at some anvils today inland the SE Coast of FL....wow talk about some shear ripping through. :eek:

The anvils were sheared way off to the east. Looked like November out there not September.

No way this thing can get strong here with that kind of shear, if it sits in the Caribbean for days on end, it could though

ConvergenceZone · #122 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:03 pm

No way is this going to make it to Florida by Wednesday since it's sitting practically on the Yucatan

#123 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:05 pm

Tonight is showtime for this potential system.

#124 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:06 pm

Btw, it looks like the ghost of matthew begins forming just north of honduras in 66 hours or so...

#125 Postby **MGC** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:07 pm

There is some cyclonic spin down in the NW Caribbean....looks to be slowly organizing to me. Big question will be is the trough deep enough to pull the disturbance north. I think it will provide some forcing to lift the disturbance slowly north to NE. I'd give 96L a pretty good shot at becoming a TD by Wednesday....MGC

#126 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:08 pm

I wonder if the models are not handling the interaction of the trough with the monsoon gyre properly. Is it possible the gyre is strong enough to not allow any lows get sucked into the trough? Won't the low have to break off from the gyre?

Also, since the low is weak, it is not tapping into the strong upper-level SW winds....so since it is weak it may get stuck for a while in the NW Carib

#127 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:09 pm

If organization continues, code red (50%) at 8PM.

Aric Dunn · #128 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:10 pm

gatorcane wrote:I wonder if the models are not handling the interaction of the trough with the monsoon gyre properly. Is it possible the gyre is strong enough to not allow any lows get sucked into the trough? Won't the low have to break off from the gyre?

Also, since the low is weak, it is not tapping into the strong upper-level SW winds....so since it is weak it may get stuck for a while in the NW Carib

I was talking about this possibility on the previous page. there is very little steering and the narrow window for such a large system to be picked up but this very sharp narrow trough is looking less and less likely the longer it takes for something to consolidate.

#129 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:11 pm

I suspect later this evening/overnight we will see some deep bursting...

SunnyThoughts · #130 Postby **SunnyThoughts** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:13 pm

gatorcane wrote:I wonder if the models are not handling the interaction of the trough with the monsoon gyre properly. Is it possible the gyre is strong enough to not allow any lows get sucked into the trough? Won't the low have to break off from the gyre?

Also, since the low is weak, it is not tapping into the strong upper-level SW winds....so since it is weak it may get stuck for a while in the NW Carib

This is what I was wondering also. If the rotation within the gyre is strong enough, how exactly does one of these Low's break away from it? Seems to me the lows would just simply keep revolving until the conveyor belt stops.

Florida1118 · #131 Postby **Florida1118** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:14 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:If organization continues, code red (50%) at 8PM.

Code red is > or = 60%...

#132 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:16 pm

Florida1118 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:If organization continues, code red (50%) at 8PM.

Code red is >60%...

My bad lol. I quickly looked at the GTWO where it says "High: >50%". I thought it meant "50%>" lol.

#133 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:16 pm

Vortex wrote:18Z GFS rides nicole right up the SE FL coast late wednesday..

modeling has been very consistent for a long time, so much for wishing to be in the bullseye 5days out, :lol:

Aric Dunn · #134 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:18 pm

Florida1118 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:If organization continues, code red (50%) at 8PM.

Code red is > or = 60%...

There is a lot more curvature this evening and surface observations are becoming ever more evident of a LLC forming just ESE of Cozumel. The other vort farther east seems to have weakened. Tonight should be the night...

#135 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:19 pm

take a peek at the 18Z GFS at H120...

sunnyday · #136 Postby **sunnyday** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:25 pm

One of many things that confuse me about this "storm" is that it is supposed to be in S Fl by tomorrow, Tuesday night. Is it travelling that fast?
This is not a forecast in any sense of the word, but I think that after all the hoopla, this one will degenerate before it ever gets to Fl. Just my opinion/ gut feeling.....

#137 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:25 pm

sunnyday wrote:One of many things that confuse me about this "storm" is that it is supposed to be in S Fl by tomorrow, Tuesday night. Is it travelling that fast?
This is not a forecast in any sense of the word, but I think that after all the hoopla, this one will degenerate before it ever gets to Fl. Just my opinion/ gut feeling.....

Wednesday night :wink:

#138 Postby **fci** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:28 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:Still looks like a disorganized mess to me.. I really do not think this makes ts strength IMHO.

Vortex wrote:slowly organizing this evening...

Ahh the world of storm2k.

It's organizing...it's not organizing....yes it is...no it isn't....

And you don't need models to tell which S2K members who will always say "the sky is falling" even when the odds are minimal and the ones who will say "boring" and " nothing to see here" even when the odds are overwhelming.
They are so consistent and predictable.

Aric Dunn · #139 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:31 pm

fci wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:Still looks like a disorganized mess to me.. I really do not think this makes ts strength IMHO.

Vortex wrote:slowly organizing this evening...

Ahh the world of storm2k.

It's organizing...it's not organizing....yes it is...no it isn't....

And you don't need models to tell which S2K members who will always say "the sky is falling" even when the odds are minimal and the ones who will say "boring" and " nothing to see here" even when the odds are overwhelming.
They are so consistent and predictable.

hehe...

I know the sky is falling..

well at least most of it.. lol

#140 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:34 pm

Aric,

Where do you think well get a spin-up?

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