WPAC: INVEST 92W

[RobWESTPACWX]

Invest put out by NRL just E of Palua.

[supercane]

From sat pic, coordinates are:
92WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-88N-1375E.
and appears to correspond to ITOP 24. From today's ITOP discussion:

ITOP_2010 weather summary

Date(UTC): 2010/09/27 23:01
Author: Gary Foley
Submitted at(UTC): 2010/09/27 19:03
Revised at(UTC): 2010/09/27 21:32
Synoptic Overview:

Meteorology Satellite Image:
Yesterday: Image 1.
Today: Image 2.
Standard pair of images to illustrate changes in past 24 hours.
Indicates clusters of convection...not well organized...moving
west at around 15 knots.


ITOP24 has tracked to around 140E
Another suspect cloud cluster (ITOP26?) near 150E
ITOP25 around 160E

Model Overview:

EC 850mb Vorticity loop - little showing on surface wind fields
of models currently.

EC vorticity Loop

Model intercomparison at Day 5:

model.ComNGU_1deg.201009271200.120_Vort-850-streaml.gif

Current Conditions/Review of Yesterday's Forecast:

Low-level vorticity areas noted yesterday have been verified by
satellite as cloud clusters maintaining their integrity (albeit
weak).
DAY 1 (Tomorrow) Update:

In 24 hours the 3 vorticity centers are tracking to:
ITOP24 (?) ITOP25
At 28/12Z: 12N 137E 12N 148E 14N 159E

Positions consistent with previous 24 hour model run

(Surface circulation appears on high resolution EC model at 11N
147.5E).

DAY 2 (Day after tomorrow) Forecast:

In 48 hours the 3 vorticity centers are tracking to:
ITOP24 (?) ITOP25
At 29/12Z: 13N 133E 13N 145E 14N 154E

Longterm Outlook:

The 3 centers are trackable further into the model run.
ITOP24 (?) ITOP25
At 30/12Z: 15N 132E 15N 141E 15N 150E
At 01/12Z 15N 125E 17N 139E 18N 148E (poor)
At 02/12Z 16N 125E 16N 138E 20N 148E (poor)
At 03/12Z 17N 123E 20N 140E
At 04/12Z 18N 121E 22N 139E
At 05/12Z 17N 117E 25N 138E
At 06/12Z 15N 110E 26N 135E
At 07/12Z Diffuse vorticity pattern over tropics.
Summary:
EC ensembles and latest deterministic run favors ITOP 24 to
develop as it approaches the Philippines but also develops and
recurves a system further north.

[StormingB81]

So it develops near phillipines and curves north..how close the the key question then if it will come near Japan when it curves north

[KWT]

ECM doesn't really do much other then show an increase in wind speeds due to the system...we will see, wouldn't shock me to see something try to develop, then again this season has been real slow so who knows!

[RobWESTPACWX]

GFS is really the only model that I see picking up on this right now.. Do see it taking it N though.. All speculation it seems.

There is such little vorticty as noted in the DSCN from ITOP. I don't give this one a big chance of development.. I guess we will see though.

[StormingB81]

on Kadena's weather sitee they have a link to a Phillipines weather site I dont know if it is apart of PAGASA or not but they say 40% chance. Also NOAA has one model going to Northern PI the other north and out of teh way of everyone..guess we will have to see...here is the link though

http://www.maybagyo.com/

[Typhoon Hunter]

on Kadena's weather sitee they have a link to a Phillipines weather site I dont know if it is apart of PAGASA or not but they say 40% chance. Also NOAA has one model going to Northern PI the other north and out of teh way of everyone..guess we will have to see...here is the link though

http://www.maybagyo.com/

That's not PAGASA, look closely and PAGASA is not mentioned anywhere - it belongs to Michael Padua who works very hard monitoring and tracking Wpac typhoons, it's a useful website for sure.

[StormingB81]

Thank you Typhoon for the clearification. It is useful I like it. I go on it often! I just wasnt sure. I like all the info he puts on there

[StormingB81]

I would bet now tha twithin 12-24 hours we have a TCFA on this system

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[StormingB81]

From JTWC

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.8N 136.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 145 NM NORTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION OVER A WEAK AND
UNORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED BENEATH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT BUT UNORGANIZED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I like the disclaimer storming, looks like you may be right with it now going to poor.

[StormingB81]

BTW Rob, Off subject but I got your site from Infidoll, GREAT SITE you have!

[StormingB81]

http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml

NOGAPS Has it comming towards Okinawa Area. Which is a long time out could change. Better not mess with the long weekend..lol

[StormingB81]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.gif


Right now they have them going off to the NNE. However they said that Fanapi and it ended upgoing west so we shall see what IF anything happends

[RobWESTPACWX]

My thoughts on the weather today, (not an official fcst as storming put it) Anyways thanks for watching the vids guys.[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2UiT_PYMXU[/youtube]

[dexterlabio]

ITOP_2010 weather summary
Date(UTC): 2010/09/27 23:01
Author: Gary Foley
Submitted at(UTC): 2010/09/27 19:03
Revised at(UTC): 2010/09/27 22:33
Synoptic Overview:

Meteorology Satellite Image:
Yesterday: Image 1.
Today: Image 2.
Standard pair of images to illustrate changes in past 24 hours.
Indicates clusters of convection...not well organized...moving
west at around 15 knots.


ITOP24 has tracked to around 140E
Another suspect cloud cluster (ITOP26?) near 150E
ITOP25 around 160E

Model Overview:

EC 850mb Vorticity loop - little showing on surface wind fields
of models currently.

EC vorticity Loop

Model intercomparison at Day 5:

model.ComNGU_1deg.201009271200.120_Vort-850-streaml.gif

Current Conditions/Review of Yesterday's Forecast:

Low-level vorticity areas noted yesterday have been verified by
satellite as cloud clusters maintaining their integrity (albeit
weak).

DAY 1 (Tomorrow) Update:

In 24 hours the 3 vorticity centers are tracking to:
ITOP24 (?) ITOP25
At 28/12Z: 12N 137E 12N 148E 14N 159E

These positions consistent with previous 24 hour model run


DAY 2 (Day after tomorrow) Forecast:

In 48 hours the 3 vorticity centers are tracking to:
ITOP24 (?) ITOP25
At 29/12Z: 13N 133E 13N 145E 14N 154E

Longterm Outlook:

The 3 centers are trackable further into the model run.
ITOP24 (?) ITOP25
At 30/12Z: 15N 132E 15N 141E 15N 150E
At 01/12Z 15N 125E 17N 139E 18N 148E (poor)
At 02/12Z 16N 125E 16N 138E 20N 148E (poor)
At 03/12Z 17N 123E 20N 140E
At 04/12Z 18N 121E 22N 139E
At 05/12Z 17N 117E 25N 138E
At 06/12Z 15N 110E 26N 135E
At 07/12Z Diffuse vorticity pattern over tropics.
Summary:
EC ensembles and latest deterministic run favors ITOP 24 to
develop as it approaches the Philippines but also develops and
recurves a system further north.


*****************

I kinda like the summary at the end of their discussion, because it seems before that iTOP24 approaches the Philippines, it will veer away towards the north and track somewhere else (maybe Okinawa-Japan). A midlatitude trough is the only thing I know that can pick the circulation away from the Philippine islands.

I personally hope this one won't threaten us because we have no time for storms, and we are still in the process of redevelopment to make ourselves ready for disasters like Ketsana exactly a year ago.

[dexterlabio]

My thoughts on the weather today, (not an official fcst as storming put it) Anyways thanks for watching the vids guys.[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2UiT_PYMXU[/youtube]

Another great video, Rob! We have the same point regarding this invest. Chances of this developing into a TD would be low because of the relatively high wind shear on its north for now.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Thanks Dexter, also are you in the PI? Didn't realize that. That is one thing I love about this site, such a wide variety of people.

O and I agree with it moving N possibly with the trough..

[dexterlabio]

Thanks Dexter, also are you in the PI? Didn't realize that. That is one thing I love about this site, such a wide variety of people.

O and I agree with it moving N possibly with the trough..

Yeah, I've been residing in the Philippines since I was a kid.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Cool stuff, I been thinking about moving there, wife grew up there and I been to manila a few times. But thats neither here nor their.... But on that note here is another great site for weather in the westpac, mainly the PI...



http://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2009/ ... -over.html