ATL: NICOLE - Models

[AtlanticWind]

GFS is out.. Looks like most of "it" will stay east of Florida..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Well yeah unless you live on the east coast where the GFS takes it right over.

[Weatherfreak000]

GFS is out.. Looks like most of "it" will stay east of Florida..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

The low at the end of that run is kinda scary....

[SFLcane]

00z HWRF...

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/invest96l.2010092800/invest96l.2010092800_anim.html

[ericinmia]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0092800!!/

Updated 00z euro...
Posting from my phone...
48hrs showing a sheared/elongated storm.
This run has the PREDICT flight data in it...

[DanKellFla]

Is anybody going to go get gas for their generators?

[Patrick99]

Any time any kind of low stays east of us, we get *nothing*. Could be a forecast bust rainwise. We'd get more rain if the low stayed off the west coast of FL.

[Cuber]

Is anybody going to go get gas for their generators?

If I were a customer of Lake Worth Utilities I would

[jlauderdal]

Is anybody going to go get gas for their generators?

FPL Power Grid+30 mph winds=50 gallons

if i dont use it for this one then maybe this weekend for the next or in my car

[wzrgirl1]

Is anybody going to go get gas for their generators?

FPL Power Grid+30 mph winds=50 gallons

if i dont use it for this one then maybe this weekend for the next or in my car

We went yesterday and got more canned goods, water and gas for our grill just in case. The pattern looks too ominous to me.

[MWatkins]

The 06Z GFS takes this into SE Florida in 36 hours or so. Not very symmetrical in the models, but this setup would put a lot of rain down.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036m.gif

The rain is going to start later this morning once the atmosphere heats up. Precipitable water values are moving off the chart, and just a little surface heating should kick off the rain before the bands move in from the system itself.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Long couple of days ahead.

MW

[jpigott]

The 06Z GFS takes this into SE Florida in 36 hours or so. Not very symmetrical in the models, but this setup would put a lot of rain down.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036m.gif

The rain is going to start later this morning once the atmosphere heats up. Precipitable water values are moving off the chart, and just a little surface heating should kick off the rain before the bands move in from the system itself.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Long couple of days ahead.

MW

MW - Always appreciate your thoughts and analysis, being a SE Florida resident as well. Question - I'm looking at that water vapor loop and still see the trough/front digging S and E. It looks to me based upon current trends that all the weather is going to be shunted off the SE FL coast. Is the trough/front going to retrograde/stall because if it doesn't I don't see how this doesn't miss us?

[MWatkins]

The 06Z GFS takes this into SE Florida in 36 hours or so. Not very symmetrical in the models, but this setup would put a lot of rain down.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036m.gif

The rain is going to start later this morning once the atmosphere heats up. Precipitable water values are moving off the chart, and just a little surface heating should kick off the rain before the bands move in from the system itself.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Long couple of days ahead.

MW

MW - Always appreciate your thoughts and analysis, being a SE Florida resident as well. Question - I'm looking at that water vapor loop and still see the trough/front digging S and E. It looks to me based upon current trends that all the weather is going to be shunted off the SE FL coast. Is the trough/front going to retrograde/stall because if it doesn't I don't see how this doesn't miss us?

Looking at the various models SW flow is going to set up right over Florida, and the ridge to the east should be fairly stationary. This is going to create an exit corridor from the Caribbean, and 96L should move right through that.

Timing and the exact location of the low will of course be critical, but the trough doesn't look progressive enough to cause a clean miss. 96L could end up passing us to the east, but it's going to be a close call.

Interesting day ahead at least

MW

[GCANE]

Large spread in the ensembles on where this will be in 72 hrs

[artist]

the green models are fairly useless is this part of the basin so they can be thrown out. (they are deep atlantic tropics models)

[invest man]

I noticed that some of the more reliable models (exclude bam models) takes the storm between Charleston and Morehead city in 60 to 72 hrs as a mid cat 1. Am I missing something here and is this possible? Does anybody else see this and if I'm wrong please correct me. IM

[sandyb]

I noticed that some of the more reliable models (exclude bam models) takes the storm between Charleston and Morehead city in 60 to 72 hrs as a mid cat 1. Am I missing something here and is this possible? Does anybody else see this and if I'm wrong please correct me. IM

yea i see that too im in morehead city looks like we are in for something here to thursday...dont know what yet but i think looking and reading comments maybe a cat 1 hurricane and no one except us are talking about it

[invest man]

I noticed that some of the more reliable models (exclude bam models) takes the storm between Charleston and Morehead city in 60 to 72 hrs as a mid cat 1. Am I missing something here and is this possible? Does anybody else see this and if I'm wrong please correct me. IM

yea i see that too im in morehead city looks like we are in for something here to thursday...dont know what yet but i think looking and reading comments maybe a cat 1 hurricane and no one except us are talking about it

Yeah, I'm in New Bern and local mets not even talking to much about it. Still don't know if this is a real TC threat. Talk is it may be a extra or sub tropical but I still remember the March of 1993 storm that did a lot of damage around here as well as knocking the power out for over 24 hrs!

[Aquawind]

I noticed that some of the more reliable models (exclude bam models) takes the storm between Charleston and Morehead city in 60 to 72 hrs as a mid cat 1. Am I missing something here and is this possible? Does anybody else see this and if I'm wrong please correct me. IM

yea i see that too im in morehead city looks like we are in for something here to thursday...dont know what yet but i think looking and reading comments maybe a cat 1 hurricane and no one except us are talking about it

Some of the models are hinting at that..but it probably won't be tropical at that point. Heck none of the METS are chimming in yet today..so clearly it's a bit confusing and not a real urgent situation for anyone yet.

[capepoint]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
445 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY STALLING
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR MORE STRONG LOWS
TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG IT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.



NWS has been talking about this for a few days, but low confidence forcast, which is why the tv mets are not talking about it yet. They will probably have to start mentioning it tonight on air.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

News14 Carolina has started talking about it this morning. They are also talking about getting another 8+ inches of rain ahead of the possible approaching storm. That could be almost 20 inches of rain in less than a week before a TC of some sort (here in Wilmington we got 10.33 inches yesterday). Flooding and downed trees could be quite a serious situation.