11:30 TWO from TPC= Mr death proclaims the rip

[cycloneye]

http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... lantic.htm

Avila who is known for not being bullish on systems has done what he usually does as he downplays the wave entirely.

[Guest]

Oh well one day of excitement yesterday might be all we have this week. LOL.

[Steve Cosby]

I used to really like his discussions but, lately, he has taken this "Dr. Tropical Death" thing awfully seriously.

[cycloneye]

Ticka your until labor day weekend lull stands.

[chadtm80]

Well Erika brought us out of the lull

[cycloneye]

Yeah but she didn't make landfall in the US.

[Guest]

LOL@chad!!!! My predict still stands!

[Thunder44]

Erika still counts cuz it still brought rains and wind to South Texas. Avilla is wrong about the showers have diminished. They actually increased from earlier this morning and are more clustered. He must be blind or looking at some other satellite image.

[Steve Cosby]

Isn't the remnants of Erika looping back around to hit the southwestern coast or States now?

[chadtm80]

Well its not a Tropical Lull, if we had tropical activity.. Storm has to hit conus before the lull ends?????? lol

[Guest]

Just joking Chad. I was this one time I would be WRONG.

[cycloneye]

Is Avila looking at other place because I see convection there not diminushing as he says.

[Scott_inVA]

http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Tropics/Weather-Tropics-Atlantic.htm

Avila who is known for not being bullish on systems has done what he usually does as he downplays the wave entirely.

Avila clearly is the slowest trigger at TPC.
I wouldn't want him on my side at the OK Corral, but I don't believe he is pooh-poohing a legit chance at TC development with the first wave.

We've observed a couple previous occasions Avila tamped down a storm then Stacy came in and went with it. But one can't make something out of nothing right now.

Scott

[Steve H.]

When I posted earlier about the Dr. Death, it was tongue in cheek. Certainly this wave has a chance to develop, and is currently bouncing back (literally), as it headed down toward the ITCZ as is amplifying again. I expect some slow development out of this as it should get to the southern Bahamas as it cuts through Haiti or eastern Cuba during the weekend. Cheers!!

[Stephanie]

I was amazed when I was away and heard that Erika (aka 91L) had gathered up enough steam to become a Tropical Storm. I was like "the little sh*t did it!"

Avila wasn't negative on her either which was surprising to all of you. I've read his reports before, but never knew he was "Dr. Death" to the tropical systems. It's been interesting getting the scoop on the different forecasters at the NHC from all of you.

[Guest]

Stephanie - you should of heard the message board when Avila proclaimed development with Erika - it was like the lid came off.....

I think he's the pessimistic forecaster of NHC. Nothing wrong or against him - this attitude keeps him from disappointed by the ones that dont' develop.

Patricia

[chadtm80]

Ya, nothign wrong with being pessimistic.. He just used some bad wording there.. I think he gets mad like we do when things crap out... LOL

[Scott_inVA]

[snip].... It's been interesting getting the scoop on the different forecasters at the NHC from all of you.

Anyone interested in an accurate behind the scenes look at HRD and to a certain extent, TPC forecasters, should read Inside the Hurricane by Pete Davies. He spent 1999 TC season with HRD and TPC and offers insight into how mets and scientists dealt with Mitch and Floyd. He had about as close as one can get to an all-access pass, even flying RECCO. Also fun is reading why HRD and to a lesser degree TPC hates/detests/loathes TWC (think there was a Cantore shot or two as well).

Dr. Avila gets plenty of ink in the book (which supports the old school cautious and curt style of writing we usually see). There's no mudslinging but you get to see the different forecaster personalities come through. I yack with someone at HRD and he said the book did a great job showing various personalities and styles at TPC. Book has a few errors but the inside look is fascinating and hard to put down.

Scott

[ameriwx2003]

Scott, Thanks for the heads up on that book. That would be an interesting read. I can only imagine what the HRD and TPC think of some like Bastardi lol.

[Scott_inVA]

Scott, Thanks for the heads up on that book. That would be an interesting read. I can only imagine what the HRD and TPC think of some like Bastardi lol.

I only know one person's opinion of him at HRD. 'nuff said.

From what little I see now, JB is off the chart ripping TPC. Personally, I think that is great b/c everyone is seeing how AccuWeather conducts business. The more people understand Accu's REAL mission, the better.

[Editor's note: I am not flaming JB's...er, "forecasts"; I just oppose his employer's business plan and have said so for several years. I am slowly learning to keep my Bastardi comments to myself]

Scott