ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[wzrgirl1]

Do you think residents will have time to shutter if need be, or is the weather supposed to go downhill from here on out? I am a tad nervous about this.

[jpigott]

6Z GFDL as strong as HWRF with hurricane crossing SFL 76kts while moving off se coast...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

That would put the SE FL metro areas on the weaker/drier side of a CAT 1. Probably only see mod tropical storm conditions if that run panned out. Not much of a difference in tracks or strenght of the 6Z HMRF or GFDL, but enough to cause a significant difference in conditions that would be experienced along the SE FL metro areas.

[Evil Jeremy]

Do you think residents will have time to shutter if need be, or is the weather supposed to go downhill from here on out? I am a tad nervous about this.

If we do have a hurricane in a few days (Which I still don't think is likely), there isn't enough time to prepare. Most people are already at work for the day, which means they couldn't start serious perpetration until they get off later today, leaving only a day and a 1/3 really to prepare. Not a lot of time.

[TheBurn]

[Ladylight]

Yuck. That run would put the SE FL metro areas (Mia, Ft Laud, WPB) on the dirty/strong side of a CAT 1.

We may need to shutter after all. Hope everyone has supplies.

[Canelaw99]

I know y'all can't answer, for sure, but my parents are scheduled to fly out of S FL tomorrow and we're debating whether they should switch their flight to this afternoon. Local news is sounding like bad rain is starting later today which would not be good for flying, but some of the models are calling for a TS or minimal hurricane coming through here tomorrow (??), and in the end we may get nothing I'm just hoping you guys can give me an idea of what you would do in this situation. Thanks a bunch!!

[Aquawind]

Pancakes with the parents at IHOP and then send them home..

[srainhoutx]

Key West thoughts this morning...

THE DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THROUGH THE KEYS DURING THIS
TIME...WITH COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE KEYS FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA INITIALLY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS
BEING MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND OBVIOUSLY ANY ADDITIONAL TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
ACROSS THE KEYS. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS/KEYS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE LOW THEN PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA AND OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT WE WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...AS VERY
HIGH PWATS ARE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THESE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE KEYS FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY LATER TODAY...WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AND LIKELY WEST TO CATEGORICAL
EAST FOR WEDNESDAY. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME...AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DRAGS
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE KEYS. WOULD NOT EXPECT
TEMPS TO COOL OFF MUCH DUE TO THE VERY WARM GULF WATERS...BUT WE
SHOULD SEE A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT ENDING. FOR WED NIGHT...HAVE CUT BACK THE LIKELY POPS
TO EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH CHANCE OTHERWISE. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK/SPEED OF THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA...BUT IF THE SCENARIO UNFOLDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED THURSDAY
COULD WELL TURN OUT TO BE MAINLY DRY.

[Aric Dunn]

The invest location is nearly right on.. I see the lowest pressure associated with the invest location not near the caymans.. surface obs show that there could be a weak vort near the caymans but the invest location is quite a bit more defined.

[Evil Jeremy]

It seems that the NWS offices are assuming there will be no tropical cyclone development (even though they say it is possible) rather than it happening. Once the first advisory is issued, I expect to see many of these daily forecasts from them change.

[jlauderdal]

Do you think residents will have time to shutter if need be, or is the weather supposed to go downhill from here on out? I am a tad nervous about this.

If we do have a hurricane in a few days (Which I still don't think is likely), there isn't enough time to prepare. Most people are already at work for the day, which means they couldn't start serious perpetration until they get off later today, leaving only a day and a 1/3 really to prepare. Not a lot of time.

yep but most preparations should have been completed months ago, of course putting panels up is a mission, believe me I have 63 of them so I know but the other stuff should be in place, this one doesn't look like it will require shutters but certainly power outages could be in the mix, lets see its not even a td yet

[Ladylight]

Canelaw, if I was one of your parents and can switch flights to today without significant cost, I'd do it. They should still be able to get out tomorrow, even with rain, but if it would inconvenience them to be stuck here, then they might be better off leaving early. If this storm does become a cat 1 , it's unlikely the airports would be closed for more than a day or so though. So, if they wouldnt mind a short delay, if it happens, then they could wait. Hope that helps.

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: Pancakes with the parents at IHOP and then send them home..

good call, get them out of here today, tomorrow would be the worst but it sure looks to me like the bulk of the action will be south and east

[Canelaw99]

Thanks for the replies...it helps

Gotta tell hubby to pick up a little gas for the generator, just in case, as well I think....

[ColinDelia]

I know y'all can't answer, for sure, but my parents are scheduled to fly out of S FL tomorrow and we're debating whether they should switch their flight to this afternoon. Local news is sounding like bad rain is starting later today which would not be good for flying, but some of the models are calling for a TS or minimal hurricane coming through here tomorrow (??), and in the end we may get nothing I'm just hoping you guys can give me an idea of what you would do in this situation. Thanks a bunch!!

Would never pretend to answer for someone else but if it were me personally, I would change my flight.

[GCANE]

An UL Low is forecast to develop to the east around 30N 60W in about 66 hrs.

Depending on how the two are positioned, there is a chance it could help to setup an enhanced poleward outflow channel and strengthen the TC/Hybrid in this time period.

The ULL looks like it will get absorbed by the front and help to setup a nice looking UL ridge in the west Carib for the next forecasted TC.

[Ladylight]

yep but most preparations should have been completed months ago, of course putting panels up is a mission, believe me I have 63 of them so I know but the other stuff should be in place, this one doesn't look like it will require shutters but certainly power outages could be in the mix, lets see its not even a td yet

Sadly, the only people I know in this area who prepare early, just in case, are those of us who have been through hurricanes before. Even some of them don't prepare until the news tells them to. Most now have permanent shutters and generators, but they don't get supplies. Far too many have very lackadaisical attitudes as there hasn't been any real risks here since 05 I bet lots have boats unsecured in the water. One day just isn't enough time for this area to get organized.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

3EBL5 - MARITIME-ship
Tuesday Sep. 28 - 9:00 UTC
Air Temperature: 75°F
Dewpoint: 64°F
Wind: WSW at 34 mph
Pressure: 1000 mb
Weather: Rain
Wave Height: 7 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 80.6°F

[Aquawind]

Code: Select all

3EBL5 - MARITIME-ship
Tuesday Sep. 28 - 9:00 UTC
Air Temperature: 75°F
Dewpoint: 64°F
Wind: WSW at 34 mph
Pressure: 1000 mb
Weather: Rain
Wave Height: 7 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 80.6°F

That does not look like tha carribbean.. 75F is almost cold..64 Dewpoint is dry for around here even.. only 80.6F in the highest THP area of the basin. that is suspect.,,imo

We are 79 with a 76 dewpoint and it's cloudy..

[Aric Dunn]

Code: Select all

3EBL5 - MARITIME-ship
Tuesday Sep. 28 - 9:00 UTC
Air Temperature: 75°F
Dewpoint: 64°F
Wind: WSW at 34 mph
Pressure: 1000 mb
Weather: Rain
Wave Height: 7 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 80.6°F

That does not look like tha carribbean.. 75F is almost cold..64 Dewpoint is dry for around here even.. only 80.6F in the highest THP area of the basin. that is suspect.,,imo

The image I posted a little bit ago has that Ship plotted.