ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[FLpanhandle91]

For the first time in a long time, I have no idea what this system is going to do tropically...

[WilmingtonSandbar]

If this should come up the SE coast, I would expect large amounts of flooding. Here in SE NC we got almost 9 inches of rain yesterday, and are expecting another 8+ inches by Thursday, and that is ahead of this possible storm. With the ground already loosened by that much water, a little bit of wind could bring a lot of trees down. We had a similar situation back in the 90's when a storm came through and dumped a lot of rain and 2 weeks later a small cat 1 came through and we had huge amounts of trees come down because the ground around the root systems had been loosened by the previous amounts of rain.

[xironman]

AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
THAT COULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE
IS LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
What?

My guess is the the anticyclone over the BOC would help create an outflow channel?

[cyclonic chronic]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

looks like a swirl at 20.5/83.5

[HURAKAN]

AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
THAT COULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE
IS LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
What?

My guess is the the anticyclone over the BOC would help create an outflow channel?

I get it now. I read it too fast. I thought they were saying that the tropical feature was located over the Bay of Campeche.

[invest man]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

looks like a swirl at 20.5/83.5

I see that and wonder if this and the area to the west of it could consolidate and then take off in strength and direction to the NNE. IM

[FLpanhandle91]

LLC quite visible at 20.5/83 in the last few frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

[FLpanhandle91]

I believe the previously mentioned low is stronger than the one at 19.5/85

[x-y-no]

LLC quite visible at 20.5/83 in the last few frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

There certainly looks to be a low-level swirl there. I'm not sure whether it's a definite LLC or if it's embedded in a more elongated low extending WSW from there ...

[capepoint]

From MHX this morning. They have been talking about 1 or more systems for several days now, still saying they are not sure if will be tropical or sub-tropical, or how strong it/they will be.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
445 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY STALLING
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR MORE STRONG LOWS
TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG IT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.


guess we are officially in wait and see mode. However, with all of the rain we have gotten in the past 48 hours, any wind at all will result in downed trees and power lines, and we are already having minor flooding issues that would only be made worse with wind-driven coastal and soundside flooding.

[tshizzle]

raining hard already in sofla, going to be some serious flooding issues if those rain forecasts from 96L come true

[Evil Jeremy]

Still no dominating LLC. That is what 96L needs, one specific circulation center.

[AtlanticWind]

Pressures continue to fall over the Western Caribbean this morning as a strong tropical disturbance (96L) organizes. Surface observations suggest that 96L has a large circulation covering most of the Western Caribbean, as evidenced by winds out of the southwest sustained at 29 - 34 mph observed at Buoy 42057 to the southeast of 96L's center this morning. Rotation of 96L can be seen on radar loops out of Pico San Juan, Cuba, and well as satellite imagery. The heavy thunderstorms are currently quite disorganized, but are bringing torrential rains to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Honduras. A Personal Weather Station in George Town on Grand Cayman Island has picked up 3.64" of rain in the twelve hours ending at 8am this morning. 96L is not the typical sort of disturbance one sees in the Atlantic, since it is much larger than normal. What has happened is that the atmospheric flow pattern of the Eastern Pacific has shifted eastwards into the Western Caribbean, bringing in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone, a region of converging surface winds that creates a band of strong thunderstorms). 96L resembles the "monsoon depressions" common in India's Bay of Bengal or the Western Pacific. A monsoon depression is similar to a regular tropical depression in the winds that it generates--about 30 - 35 mph near the outer edges (and usually stronger on the eastern side of the circulation.) Monsoon depressions have large, calm centers, and can evolve into a regular tropical storms, if given enough time over water to develop a tight, closed circulation. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 96L this afternoon near 2pm EDT to see if it has become a tropical depression

From Jeff Masters

[invest man]

From MHX this morning. They have been talking about 1 or more systems for several days now, still saying they are not sure if will be tropical or sub-tropical, or how strong it/they will be.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
445 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY STALLING
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR MORE STRONG LOWS
TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG IT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.


guess we are officially in wait and see mode. However, with all of the rain we have gotten in the past 48 hours, any wind at all will result in downed trees and power lines, and we are already having minor flooding issues that would only be made worse with wind-driven coastal and soundside flooding.

I believe that the issue will be more of a wind problem because of all the rain. I'm from the Beaufort area with family in the area and I fully understand the issue with to much rain to quick along with the idea of tree damage if to much rain with gale force winds. To this point other than the gfdl & hwrf models giving any clues about wind for Thursday although I realize that wind in these things can be difficult to predict. IM

[btangy]

There's word that NHC will begin issuing advisories on TD16 or Nicole at 11am.

[srainhoutx]

Not surprised. Thanks for the update, btangy!

[jhpigott]

There's word that NHC will begin issuing advisories on TD16 or Nicole at 11am.

Given the close proximity to FL, do you think they would also immediately issue watches/warnings for Keys/SFL??

[invest man]

There's word that NHC will begin issuing advisories on TD16 or Nicole at 11am.

If they do would they be confident that the storm will be significant with impact further N over SEFL northward since recon has not got there as of yet and they will be calling it a tc before the plane arrives? IM

[srainhoutx]

Key West Update just issued...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1000 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...LATEST AVAILABLE
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS OVERLAID ON TOP OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 900
AM DEPICT AND UNUSUALLY DEEP LARGE SCALE MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WITHIN THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER
IDENTIFIABLE SHORTWAVE IS PRESENTLY DIVING SOUTHWARD IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO DIG A WEE BIT MORE
SOUTHWARD. TO THE EAST OF THAT FEATURE...THERE IS A WARM CORE
ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED NEAR 38N 65W OFF OF THE NORTHEASTERN AND
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS. ACROSS THE TROPICS...A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION IS CENTERED IN THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AROUND 18N
80W...WITH CLOUD TOPS BETWEEN -80 AND -90C.

IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...STILL DETACHED FROM THE THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF DEEPER CONVECTION JUST TO THE EAST ALONG 80W.
THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY WEST ILLUSTRATED A FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 750 MB. THIS IS DUE TO THE
PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING CARIBBEAN SURFACE LOW AND
ONLY WEAK RIDGING NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

[AdamFirst]

There's word that NHC will begin issuing advisories on TD16 or Nicole at 11am.

Where would they initialize the center, you think? Near belize or near the caymans?