ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[BetaEffect]

From Predict:


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al162010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009281359
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
SIXTEEN, AL, L, , , , , 16, 2010, DB, O, 2010092718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL162010
AL, 16, 2010092712, , BEST, 0, 185N, 855W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 16, 2010092718, , BEST, 0, 187N, 847W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092800, , BEST, 0, 190N, 840W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092806, , BEST, 0, 194N, 834W, 30, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092812, , BEST, 0, 202N, 828W, 30, 1001, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 360, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,

[petit_bois]

There's word that NHC will begin issuing advisories on TD16 or Nicole at 11am.

Where would they initialize the center, you think? Near belize or near the caymans?

caymans most likely... looks like a mess down there.

[FLpanhandle91]

There's word that NHC will begin issuing advisories on TD16 or Nicole at 11am.

Which low will they designate as TD16?

[btangy]

There's word that NHC will begin issuing advisories on TD16 or Nicole at 11am.

Yes, I expect TS watches and warnings will be issued for Cayman Islands, Cuba, S FL, and a portion of the Bahamas. Nicole won't last long though. I expect it to go extratropical fairly quickly.

[SouthFLTropics]

I could be wrong but it looks like the front has stalled out and is beginning to align more North to South versus SW to NE. If that is the case I would think that it would bring more affects to South Florida. In addition could the North/South alignment provide a venting channel for this and possibly enhance development?

SFT

[Evil Jeremy]

There's word that NHC will begin issuing advisories on TD16 or Nicole at 11am.

Where would they initialize the center, you think? Near belize or near the caymans?

Good news. Out of curiosity, how do you know this? I think your on the PREDICT team, right? I assume they would communicate with the NHC about these things.

[btangy]

Where would they initialize the center, you think? Near belize or near the caymans?

Lowest pressures are near Grand Cayman. I expect the center to the be initialized near there. All the strong convection is on the SE and S side of the circulation. PREDICT's GV is dropping sondes in the area now.

[invest man]

From Predict:


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al162010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009281359
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
SIXTEEN, AL, L, , , , , 16, 2010, DB, O, 2010092718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL162010
AL, 16, 2010092712, , BEST, 0, 185N, 855W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 16, 2010092718, , BEST, 0, 187N, 847W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092800, , BEST, 0, 190N, 840W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092806, , BEST, 0, 194N, 834W, 30, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092812, , BEST, 0, 202N, 828W, 30, 1001, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 360, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,

Looks as if they got this as a TD and not sub or extra. How significant is this? IM

[Sanibel]

Looks like the front is still pushing so I'd expect anything that forms to kick out east of Florida. Good black IR in the convection however the front is hampering good formation.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[emeraldislencguy]

so what can we expcect here in nc
had trmendous rain amounts yesterday

[btangy]

Good news. Out of curiosity, how do you know this? I think your on the PREDICT team, right? I assume they would communicate with the NHC about these things.

Yes, I'm on the PREDICT team. We have a big group of scientists and forecasters. Someone on our team spotted AL16 files on the NHC's ftp server, so that was our indication that they are prepping advisories. We also have conference calls with NOAA and the NASA folks as well, so we can get information very quickly. NHC receives our flight data. You've probably heard them mention the "National Science Foundation research mission" in their outlooks the past couple of months... that's PREDICT's plane.

[ConvergenceZone]

So glad to hear that this isn't going to be as horrible rainfall wise as they were once thinking..I think the rapid movement is going to keep it from being that bad...I still think it has a shot at a minimal tropical storm though.

[O Town]

This image is only 15 minutes old. Looking better by the minute.

[HurricaneBelle]

Where would they initialize the center, you think? Near belize or near the caymans?

Lowest pressures are near Grand Cayman. I expect the center to the be initialized near there. All the strong convection is on the SE and S side of the circulation. PREDICT's GV is dropping sondes in the area now.

Where they're going to initialize is right there in the best track which refers to it as a TD: 202N, 828W

[Bocadude85]

Looks like the low may pass right over SE Fl which would put most of the heavy weather to our east... this is not a forecast just an opinion.

[SFLcane]

There's word that NHC will begin issuing advisories on TD16 or Nicole at 11am.

Yes, I expect TS watches and warnings will be issued for Cayman Islands, Cuba, S FL, and a portion of the Bahamas. Nicole won't last long though. I expect it to go extratropical fairly quickly.

Do you see the 06z HWRF/GFDL solutions of a moderate cane in sfl as plausible? thanks

[btangy]

Do you see the 06z HWRF/GFDL solutions of a moderate cane in sfl as plausible? thanks

I highly doubt the HWRF and GFDL are initializing this system correctly and I wouldn't trust their output at all.

[Vortex]

2nd low near the yucatan may be the 2nd storm?

[TheBurn]

[Buck]

There is so very dense convection just south of the Caymans... that is a lot of rain in store for them and Cuba.