11:30 TWO from TPC= Mr death proclaims the rip

[ameriwx2003]

Scott. as for Joe B. when he sticks to pure weather and explaining the tropics he is interesting to read. It bugs me though when he goes on these temper tantrums ripping the TPC, its ok to differ on opinion but he goes on and on and on and alot of the time over the littlest thing and for some reason he thinks the TPC is always showing him no respect. I can't undertsand his reasoning on this. As for accuweather if they had their way we wouldn't be able to get free weather info from goverment sources and would have to go through them for all that info. If I remember correctly I believe accuweather along with several other pro weather companies( twc etc.) tried to get some bill introduced into Congress getting rid of free weather data being released to the public. maybe my memory is hazy and I am confusing my facts lol but I do remeber something to the effect happening.I would like any comments to clarify this:):)

[Steve Cosby]

Yes, I agree that JB goes off a little too much and the blatant attempts to make themselves the only game in town is a little much.

That said, JB had a point recently when the recon data seemingly got held by the NHC over Claudette. Just before the thing was due to hit the coast, there was no recon data flowing even though a plane was in the air. A few hours later, all the recon data mysteriously appeared. A glitch between the plane the ground was blamed but somebody forgot to check the discussions at that time. One of the NHC specialists specifically referenced a recon that was not available online.

Of course, I don't have any of the supporting data available. This is just the recollection. So, of course, it has to be correct, right?

[ameriwx2003]

Yes, I remember Joe B's recon conspiracy theory lol. On another note I did a Google search and I think this may have been the bill I referenced in my previous message. If I remember correct what people who opposed this bill where worried about is that private companies such as accuweather ,TWC etc would get certain data for free from the goverment while the public would have to pay to get certain data from accuweather, TWC etc and would not be able to get access to free data. Anyways, here is the link to what I found


http://www.house.gov/science/leavitt_4-9.html

[Steve Cosby]

I suppose you could call it a "conspiracy theory"

IMHO, however, I think it was just incompetence more than anything. At least with Accuweather, you can fire them if they screw up.

(I guess that's another thread all together, huh?)

[ameriwx2003]

Steve, I agree the problem with the recon data was just a glitch I am sure. My point was is that Joe B was quick to bring up that it was done on purpose to keep data away from his or our eyes. Joe B is real quick to have these goverment conspiracy theories. I think this is from watching to many Oliver Stone movies lol

[Steve Cosby]

I concur.

[ColdFront77]

Stephanie, the system that eventually became Erika had potential; as the feature moved toward and across Florida, development chances were there and sure enough it became a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.

[Derek Ortt]

As I said at the HRd briefing today, the chances of development for the wave within the nxt 36 hours verifiable starting at 16Z today are "slim and none and slim has just left town"

[Rainband]

As I said at the HRd briefing today, the chances of development for the wave within the nxt 36 hours verifiable starting at 16Z today are "slim and none and slim has just left town"

Check out the lastest satellite :o

[wxman57]

I think maybe the proper word to use is not "optimistic" or "pessimistic" when discussing development potential, but "realistic". Believe me, I'm as much of a "hurricane nut" as any of you are, but my responsibilities to our customers mean that I can't appear to be wishing that every disturbance in the tropics is going to develop. I have to give realistic chances of development based upon observational data, while being very careful not to let my enthusiasm for potential development blind me as to what is really happening. It's taken me years of self-control to get to a level where I can control my enthusiasm and realistically appraise the chances for tropical development with each system.

What I see with the disturbance east of the Caribbean is a system that looks less organized than 2-3 days ago, and no better organized than yesterday. Thunderstorm activity remains extremely disorganized. It keeps firing in different areas along a broad area of lower pressure. There is no longer any apparent circulation. It's just a wave with spotty convection. Without one, single stable mass of convection, it cannot develop. And from what I'm seeing this evening, any potential development is at least 48 hours away and possibly 3-4 days away. It may not develop until it reaches the western Caribbean or southern Gulf. This is the same potential for development that I'd give any of the dozens and dozens of tropical waves that traverse the tropics through the season.

It's just something to keep an eye on for now.

[ColdFront77]

Very true, Derek... Possible development beyond 36 hours would still be development.

We (most of us) understand why systems do and do not develop in the tropics. With our interest comes us wanting a system to spin up and track.

With so many waves it is hopefully understood that not every tropical wave that comes off Africa will become even at least a tropical depression, etc.

The feature we are watching in the Atlantic now as more potential than other waves we have seen and less potential than others as well.

Just as much as an area of convection can develop into a tropical cyclone, it can weaken, just as a weak system (not even a tropical depression) can strengthen.

[Stephanie]

Stephanie, the system that eventually became Erika had potential; as the feature moved toward and across Florida, development chances were there and sure enough it became a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.

I remember what she looked like before I left and I remember also some of the posts saying to "take a deep breath", etc.

Ticka - I can only imagine the response on the board when she became "official"! I could hear the cheers to Denver!

[Derek Ortt]

Breaking news! Slim has returned to town