ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[SFLcane]

SFL should see some gusty winds and some rain but most the heavy stuff will stay over water. Had worst this summer with some severe storms in dade county.

Where is your disclaimer? I think you are jumping the gun.

NHC 11am...

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OCCURING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. IF THIS STRUCTURE PERSISTS...THE TRACK OF THE CENTER
WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT SINCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.

[CrazyC83]

Almost would be better to call it Subtropical Depression 16?

[plasticup]

40 KT strength seems conservative IMO, especially with the GFDL and HWRF runs suggesting at least 75 KT for FL. This really is a complex setup.

But the models definitely aren't as aggressive as they were a few days ago.

[artist]

SFL should see some gusty winds and some rain but most the heavy stuff will stay over water. Had worst this summer with some severe storms in dade county.

please preface that with the disclaimer.
Until it hits we don't know for certain.

[brunota2003]

SFL should see some gusty winds and some rain but most the heavy stuff will stay over water. Had worst this summer with some severe storms in dade county.

Where is your disclaimer? I think you are jumping the gun.

NHC 11am...

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OCCURING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. IF THIS STRUCTURE PERSISTS...THE TRACK OF THE CENTER
WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT SINCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.

You forgot to highlight a part...so I'll highlight it in red

[SFLcane]

To and to that both GFS/ECM have shift east enough to (maybe) keep the heaviest precip east of the SFL metro areas.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[artist]

SFL should see some gusty winds and some rain but most the heavy stuff will stay over water. Had worst this summer with some severe storms in dade county.

Where is your disclaimer? I think you are jumping the gun.

NHC 11am...

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OCCURING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. IF THIS STRUCTURE PERSISTS...THE TRACK OF THE CENTER
WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT SINCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.

and if the center were to go through the left side of the cone, what then? Making statements such as this are just irresponsible in my opinion.

[Evil Jeremy]

40 KT strength seems conservative IMO, especially with the GFDL and HWRF runs suggesting at least 75 KT for FL. This really is a complex setup.

But the models definitely aren't as aggressive as they were a few days ago.

The latest GFDL and HRWF were still showing Hurricane. Even SHIPs has a 50kt storm coming to SFL, stronger than the NHC's 40kt. By the way, the new SFWMD model plot is out, and it shows the NHC track being east of the consensus. 12z GFS will be interesting.

[Evil Jeremy]

To and to that both GFS/ECM have shift east enough to (maybe) keep the heaviest precip east of the SFL metro areas.

The problem is, your post implied that it is a matter of fact that "most the heavy stuff will stay over water". Nothing is ever a fact, and facts like that should be presented with the disclaimer.

[SouthFLTropics]

40 KT strength seems conservative IMO, especially with the GFDL and HWRF runs suggesting at least 75 KT for FL. This really is a complex setup.

But the models definitely aren't as aggressive as they were a few days ago.

The latest GFDL and HRWF were still showing Hurricane. Even SHIPs has a 50kt storm coming to SFL, stronger than the NHC's 40kt. By the way, the new SFWMD model plot is out, and it shows the NHC track being east of the consensus. 12z GFS will be interesting.

Intensity wise I think that NHC is close...maybe a bit under right now. As far as track I think that they may be too far east. If you look at the flow across Florida this morning you will notice that storms are streaming in from SSE to NNW up until around 27.5 north and then it flows off to the NNE. If that stays the same I'm think an Irene track will be likely.

SFT

[cycloneye]

Note=If anyone wants to make a bold statement or prediction please use our disclaimer.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I see the subtropical symbol after the FL exit,

[SFLcane]

Note=If anyone wants to make a bold statement or prediction please use our disclaimer.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Its been added cycloneye.

[BobHarlem]

Its been added cycloneye.

The local hurricane statement backs you up anyway.

[invest man]

Does anyone think this will be Nicole as soon as recon gets in there?

[Evil Jeremy]

Its been added cycloneye.

The local hurricane statement backs you up anyway.

It says that it's possible, not a done deal. There is a big difference.

[SFLcane]

I suppose recon may find nicole later today but as mentioned by another poster it sould go extratropical fairly quickly. Still feel the worst weather this system has to offer will stay just offshore.

[plasticup]

Does anyone think this will be Nicole as soon as recon gets in there?

I think that's pretty likely, yes.

[Lowpressure]

Enough already. Lets talk about the system, Cycloneye took care of it.

[cycloneye]

Plane just departed from Keesler base. Will arrive at center between 1:00- 1:30 PM EDT.