Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST MON SEP 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE THEN HOLDING ON INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A TUTT AXIS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A DEEPENING TUTT THEN DIGGING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE
BECOMING LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY THURSDAY
ALSO...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE LOCAL AREA...
IT WILL NOT BE CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE FA AND THEREFORE DO NOT
EXPECT STRONG CAPPING. STILL EXPECT THERE TO BE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE OVER OR ADVECTING INTO THE FA EACH DAY TO COMBINE WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING TUTT...DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING...TO RESULT IN SOME
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

LOOKING AHEAD...DEEPENING TUTT AND DEVELOPING LOWER LEVEL
REFLECTIONS...WILL RESULT IN A DEEP LAYER SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
AND ENTRAINMENT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE
FA FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO COMES TO
FRUITION...WOULD EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AND VERY
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
27/14Z...WITH A VCSH OR -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...AND
THE VI...RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS OR VSBYS. AFT 27/14Z...
EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN PR...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ
AND TJBQ...AND POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDS...FROM 27/17Z-27/22Z.
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TJSJ FROM
27/16Z-27/20Z AS LLVL SERLY WINDS WILL STEER SOME SHRA AND TSRA
ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

[Macrocane]

Guess what? It's still raining in El Salvdor :S I will post the map with the rainfall later today and if important news occur I will update you.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
232 PM AST MON SEP 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THEN
HOLDING ON INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A TUTT LOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY MID WEEK...DEEPENING ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING LOCATED OVER
HISPANIOLA BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DOTTED THE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO LATE IN THE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS...INDUCED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN...WESTERN
AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LAST
ACROSS THOSE SECTORS OF THE ISLAND UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND INTO THE LOCAL AREA...STILL EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
OVER OR ADVECTING INTO THE FA EACH DAY TO COMBINE WITH A
DEVELOPING TUTT LOW...DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING...TO RESULT IN SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL AND DEEPENING TUTT LOW AND SEVERAL
LOWER LEVELS REFLECTIONS WILL MOVE TO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION
LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER AT THIS
MOMENT...NOT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM
THE EAST...INDUCING A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TSRAS IN PROGRESS ACROSS PR AND TSRA/SHRAS ARND NRN
USVI AND TNCM...TKPK WILL PRESENT OCNL MVFR CONDS. AFT 27/23Z CONDS
OVER LAND WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVER PR...BUT A FEW SHRAS MAY CONTINUE
OVER TAF SITES TO EAST AND OVER WATER. LITTLE CHANGE IN SITUATION
NEXT 24 HRS. CONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP ARND 28/16Z OVER LAND.
EXPECT MTN OBSCURATIONS EXCEPT BTWN 28/03-14Z. LLVL WINDS EASTERLY
LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH 30 KFT.

[Macrocane]

Hi, the rains are not as intense as yesterday but the models are still forecasting a very wet week so the danger is not over. Here is the rainfall on the last 3 days:

[abajan]

Raining heavily here for the past 5 minutes or so and it's getting pretty dark outside too. No lightning or thunder though (at least not as yet!).

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1013 PM AST MON SEP 27 2010

.UPDATE...LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DIMINISHED AND MOVED OFFSHORE DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
HOWEVER CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AND BRUSHING
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO..AND THE REST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SET UP BY THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION/SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND UPPER RIDGE JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. LATEST TJSJ 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING AS WELL AS TFFR SHOWED
THAT LOCAL AREA REMAINED UNDER FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWAT
VALUES AROUND 2.00 INCHES. EXPECT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THEREFORE...ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST
WHICH LOOKED GOOD FOR NOW. UPDATED THE WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST BASED ON
LATEST WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK WHEN AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME PASSING SHRA AND VCSH
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER DIURNAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NW SECTIONS OF PR. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA ESPECIALLY ACROSS TJMZ...TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING AT 28/00Z INDICATED ESE
WINDS FROM SFC TO 5KFT...AND THEN LIGHT AND VRB WINDS BTWN
5-10KFT.

[BZSTORM]

well that huge blob of convection over yucatan and North Belize has now expanded to include us in the South so expecting a night of rain & thunder/lightening, hoping tonight power doesn't drop out like last night storm which a few strikes were a bit too close for comfort did but then tonight should be allot cooler as its already dropped to 85F with N/NW wind which for me is straight of the mountains and as I live on the lagoonside means its coming in my direction.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Inclement days for the Eastern Caribbean comming.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 AM AST TUE SEP 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY MOIST EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY...WITH ACTIVE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE VI
AND EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND
IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
WITH THE TUTT AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND HISPANIOLA...AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED TUTT LOWS...EXPECT GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AREA REMAINS IN FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
STRENGTHENING TUTT LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL PROVIDE A DIFFLUENT FLOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE
FORMATION OF FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST.

A PERTURBATION IN THE EASTERLIES...AROUND 45W THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW LATER IN THE
WEEK...BRINGING AN EVEN DEEPER SURGE IN MOISTURE...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS BY THIS TIME SOILS ARE
EXPECTED TO ALREADY BE VERY SATURATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. OVERALL...GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
EXCEPT IN THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA WHEN BRIEFLY IFR. DEEP EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PUSH HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE MOST SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PARTS
OF PR...INCLUDING TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ. MOUNTAINS WILL AT TIMES BE
OBSCURED IN SHOWERS. NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING WILL SEE MOST SHRA
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SIDE OF PR/VI.

[Macrocane]

Good morning! Yesterday afternoon was calmed but in the night the rains began again and at this hour is still raining. The latest Pacific TWD is very intresting:

THE MAIN ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SW TO W WINDS IN THE AREA N OF 05N
W OF 100W. THE WINDS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRES
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 03Z SHOWED WINDS TO 20
KT MAINLY OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST FROM EL SALVADOR
THROUGH NICARAGUA. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE CARIBBEAN
DEVELOPS FURTHER THROUGHOUT TODAY...THESE INFLOWING WINDS OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST WILL INCREASE FURTHER...REACHING AS HIGH AS 30
KT BY WED. AS THE CARIBBEAN LOW PRES MOVES N...ITS EFFECTS WILL
DIMINISH AND THE WINDS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY THROUGH 48 HOURS.

[msbee]

Bad news from Mexico, due to heavy rains, most recently from Tropical Storm Matthew

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/ameri ... tml?hpt=T1

[cycloneye]

Attention to our Caribbean friends. We will have to watch a new system being labled by the Predict team as PGI51L which is closer than PGI48L. Lets see what happens with this system as it moves westward.

[Gustywind]

Bad news from Mexico, due to heavy rains, most recently from Tropical Storm Matthew

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/ameri ... tml?hpt=T1

That's awfull Barbara ! Hope that things will improve quickly but that's another story.
By the way, looks like the pertubation near the 45W mentionned this morning by SAN PR DISCUSSION continues to show signs of organization... Let's be vigilant as we're ending the month of September.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST TUE SEP 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE COMBINATION OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...WILL HELP GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
TO MOVE NORTHWEST...GENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO MOVE ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE.

A EVOLVING TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND RIDGING
TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. ALSO UPPER LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS. THE GFS AND THE
NAM MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING A MORE ACTIVE RAINFALL PATTERN
ACROSS THE ISLANDS BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRAS OR VCSH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MOST
OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS SHWR AND TSTM ACTIVITY
MAY PRODUCE TEMPO PDS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ...AND POSSIBLY TJSJ. LLVL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SE AT 15 TO 25 KTS.

[Macrocane]

The sun has shone during brief periods but the models say that rains are going to increase again tomorrow and ncrease a little more on Thursaday. Here is the latest rainfall map, again the coast received a lot of rain:

[BZSTORM]

Bad news from Mexico, due to heavy rains, most recently from Tropical Storm Matthew

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/ameri ... tml?hpt=T1

That's awfull Barbara ! Hope that things will improve quickly but that's another story.
By the way, looks like the pertubation near the 45W mentionned this morning by SAN PR DISCUSSION continues to show signs of organization... Let's be vigilant as we're ending the month of September.

We noticed that cluster yesterday evening, agreed need to be watched closely.

[BZSTORM]

at 2.30pm today the Placencia peninsula and Independence had heavy rain and thunderstorms for about an hour, all calm again for now, temp has dropped quite allot and now much cooler than before my office currently is 83F, approx 6 degree drop since midday when sun was shining and humidity could be cut with a knife.

[Macrocane]

More rains expected in Guatemala and El Salvador. The latest EPAC TWD confirms what the models have been showing for a couple of days, here's a summary:

THIS BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA...AFTERNOON ASCAT PASSES DEPICTED 20 KT SWLY FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THIS CONFLUENT AREA...WHERE A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS ESTIMATED.
A 1530 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED W TO SW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT S THROUGH SW
OF THIS LOW EXTENDING W TO 98W... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING IN THIS W TO SW FLOW S OF THE LOW.
THIS MAY BE PARTLY RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF MATTHEW. THE
LOW IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE E-SE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND THEN INLAND OVER GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR.

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall for
Tue Sep 28 2010

(rainfall figures are 8pmET to 8pmET)

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 33.8C 93F
Maraval, NW Trinidad 31.4C 88F 4.8mm
Crown Point, Tobago 32.1C 90F

Point Salines, Grenada 30.8C 87F 0.3mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.4C 88F 1.5mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.6C 89F 2.6mm
Rockley, S. Barbados 32.1C 90F 5.3mm

Hewannora, St Lucia 31.4C 88F 2.2mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 31.0C 88F 8.0mm

Le Lamentin, Martinique 31.5C 89F 12.7mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 30.5C 87F 2.2mm

VC Bird Airport, Antigua 30.8C 87F 1.2mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.6C 87F 1.9mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 32.2C 90F trace

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 27.5C 82F 171.5mm
Kingston, Jamaica 26.8C 80F 69.0mm
Montego Bay, Jamaica 26.5C 80F 49.0mm
Havana, Cuba 29.9C 86F 1.0mm

Nassau, Bahamas 31.2C 88F 3.2mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 27.9C 82F

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
940 PM AST TUE SEP 28 2010

.UPDATE...LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DIMINISHED DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
HOWEVER CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE. FEW
OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRUSHED THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF
PUERTO RICO. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE
DETECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA.

AN EVOLVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR AN EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. ALSO UPPER LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS. THE GFS AND THE NAM
MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING A MORE ACTIVE RAINFALL PATTERN ACROSS
THE ISLANDS BETWEEN FRIDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE APPROACHES
TO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THUS...EXPECT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND
PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE
INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST WHICH LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT LOCAL TAF SITES AS WELL AS
OVER THE TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH AT LEAST 29/06Z. HOWEVER PASSING
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS SOUTH OF PR AND BTW THE USVI AND ERN PR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME OF THE PASSING SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS MAINLY EN ROUTE TO AND ACROSS TJNR...TJSJ...
TISX AND TIST BTW 2906Z-29/12Z. THEREAFTER VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH
PREVAILING ESE LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KTS.