Ok guys and gals time to discuss the problem for the tropics

[Guest]

Well as i said in Hurricanedudes thread what imo is killing alot of our waves is the speed at which they are moving! Which as most know from looking at Sats is a fast speed..............IMO this is great for thunderstorm development on land which most of these waves comming across Africa have looked very good onland..................However over water this imo is not a good thing as seen with most of the waves fizziling out....................Yes Stormsfury pointed out Hugo to me which was a fast mover.................Yes we could get a system like that however i dont seem much because of the high speeds at which these waves are moving across the atlantic...............So unless we see some slowing down of these waves i dont forsee much of a CV season..........But if and when they do look out because it has been very active with lots of waves comming off of Africa............This is My opinion........................So what is your take on this theory?????

[Thunder44]

I think it's too early come to any conclusion on the Cape Verde season which really starts in the Middle of August, which we are in now and goes through the beginning of October. We have had waves coming off the African coast that have looked very well organized so early in the Hurricane season. I think we will eventually see some reflection of that soon, in that we will see at least a few of these that will develop tropical cylones no matter what meterological conditions are impeding development now.

[Rainband]

Dry air at some or all levels of the Atlantic and speed!!! This last one was moving slower but the dry air won out for now!!! :o

[Guest]

Yep i am very much aware of the dry air which surely isnt helping out much either....................I mentioned the sppeds at which they are moving because like i said it does seem like a factor and as well havent seen much discussion on this....................And no i havent written off the CV season either............

[hurricanedude]

I say forget the CV season and lets move on to the winter months and FOOTBALL!!! WAHOOO

[Guest]

LOL................I hear you there Hurricanedude.................Im very excited about both by the way......................BTW our tropical friends here stay with Storm2K through the winter as we go from the best tropical site to as well the best winter discussion site on the net!!!!!!!!! With all sorts of goodies including more detailed regional and city by city forecast from the S2K forecasters and lots of other info as well.............So dont wander to far when the tropics quiet down my friends!!!!!!!!!!:) Dont forget a winter outlook is comming in the next day or so and be sure to check that out in the Storm2K weather central pages!!!!!!!!!

[ColdFront77]

Sure, the speed of these systems is an issue with there development. However, what eventually became Claudette and Erika were moving up to or just over 25 miles per hour and they both reached winds at and/or over 70 miles per hour.

[mf_dolphin]

It far from time to give up on the season LOL Our little wave may still develop and we have all kinds of possibilities looking at Africa

[Guest]

Yes Marshall im hoping Chad does up a new Pic of Africa because there certainly is alot of action that has some potential when it gets into the Ocean!!!!!!!!!! Like i said im just pointing out a possible relation to why alot of these good looking waves keep fizzing out upon entering the Atlantic comming off of Africa..............Never said the CV season was done with.............

[vbhoutex]

Speed has definitely been a factor in the way our tropical systems have developed this year. If these systems had been slower movers I think we would have had much stronger storms/hurricanes to deal with than we have. So far this year I think the biggest "problem" the tropical systems are encountering is the pervasive SAL. I'VE NEVER SEEN SO MUCH DRY AIR IN MY LIFE!! Even the systems that are carrying their own good sized moisture envelops seem to lose most of it by the time they get to the islands, if they make it that far. I do not think this is what we will see the rest of the season, but it has lasted longer than I thought it would and has apparently been much more of a factor than anyone thought it would.

[grentz7721]

The SSTs are having a big issue. This isn't a suprising season.
The shear is even though not becoming an issue.

[Stormsfury]

The SAL hasn't been a big issue lately. Neither is dry air south of 18ºN. In the last 5 days, there's been a remarked increase in moisture in the Tropical Atlantic. SST's are finally warming up as far north now as 15ºN and closer to the coast of Africa.

Fast movement has been an issue with incipient waves. Even the pressures haven't been much of an issue.

Lack of a trigger has been ... either by monsoon trough, or a westerly wind burst ...

But this last thought is only a theory and I may be way offbase but there could be some lingering effects from the stiff NE SST current with a large cold tongue of SST's off the coast of Africa. That cooler SST's maybe getting mixed with the warmer boundary layer air and SST's and act as a countereffect to otherwise offset conditions that appear ideal for a wave to take off.

SF

[wxman57]

I think that the season is right on schedule, or ahead of schecule, actually. It all looks pretty normal for mid August to me. The speed of movement off the west African coast is a function of the strength of the ridge to the north. Remember, the NAO has been positive of late (strong ridge in eastern Atlantic ridging down to the tropics). But the NAO is forecast to turn negative as the deep trof forms in the eastern Atlantic. This should result in both lower pressures and lower steering-level winds in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic.

This should also have (already is) an effect on the amount of dry Saharan air out there. Just about a week ago, it was bone dry all the way down to 10N. As of today, the moisture is now extending up to 20N and there is much less dust evident on high-res visble shots. So the air is moistening-up out there.

SSTs are not an issue - the Atlantic remains warmer than normal for this time of year, with the exception of a small area just off the west coast of Africa - but that area is slowly warming.

All evidence is pointing toward a significant burst of tropical activity in the next few weeks - again, typical of the 3rd/4th week of August. And as I say in my signature file below, we'd better keep a darn close eye on the PATTERN that has evolved this season. Look at where the tropical systems have been tracking (Florida / Southeast US). Look at the area that has been getting all the rainfall (Florida / southeast US). The pattern is in place to steer developing systems toward the southeast U.S. this year, and I see no evidence of a change. The only change I can see is that as we get more deeply into September that the threat will be shifting east of Texas as a secondary impact zone.

So, be patient all you hurricane junkies. The storms are coming!

[cycloneye]

Great topic KOW that you brought to the attention of us.We haven't seen nothing big yet comming from the east atlantic region but time will show in comming weeks that the CV season will be a normal one with 3-4 systems forming east of the islands and maybe 1 major from those.So let's relax and wait for the shoe to drop soon in the atlantic and the gates will open.Then after september is gone the attention must be focused near home as climotology says developments occur in the west atlantic and the western caribbean.Believe me that the charts we have will be used many times during the rest of the season so be prepared for the worse but hoping for the best.

[rainstorm]

dry air. steve just showed the wv loop. rarely have i seen such bone dry air dominating the atlantic. our wave has a very narrow lane to move in.

[stormie_skies]

Seems kinda early in the season to be throwing the towel in, don't y'all think? :o

[mf_dolphin]

Not throwing in the towel here! We're just getting to the good part of the season! Every year the same thing happens and then BOOM!

[Scott_inVA]

First wave remains (at least as of 10P EDT) 15-20MPH.

That's not breakneck Pole qualifying speed. Mid-Upper continues to suggest strong westerly component...at least until west of 80... while SFC displays only slight development.

I'm not sold there's anything wrong with the season

Scott