ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[jhpigott]

Given the current satellite presenation, even if the low moves over SW FL, it looks like the convection is far enough displaced to the east of the center that the majority of the weather should stay off the SE FL coast. Granted, alot can change in the next 24-36 hours, but unless TD16 tightens up, looks like most of the weather should stay east of us.

[Vortmax1]

I think that's a small vortex rotating around a much larger low center. Obs indicate northerly winds just west of Grand Cayman Island in another vortex.

Thank you Wxman57!
That is my thinking lately as well.

[ObsessedMiami]

Looks like NWS Miami doesn;t think much of it either.

http://www.weather.gov/ghls/php/ghls_in ... t=combined

[SouthDadeFish]

Latest visible imagery from RAMSDIS shows that the vortex by the Isle of Youth is becoming the main center. Convection is steadily wrapping around in the eastern semicircle and TD 16 looks to be attempting to take on a comma shape.

[HenkL]

Northerly winds just west of Cayman were reported by a ship (named Celebrity Solstice), reporting 1012 mb as pressure at the same moment (18Z). So not very reliable, I guess.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 16, 2010092818, , BEST, 0, 212N, 829W, 35, 1000, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Nicole?

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks like the storm is slowly tightening, with some sort of banding forming inland Cuba:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[wxman57]

I think that's a small vortex rotating around a much larger low center. Obs indicate northerly winds just west of Grand Cayman Island in another vortex.

Thank you Wxman57!
That is my thinking lately as well.

Or, maybe not. Hard to tell with this depression. Models initialized at 21.2N/82.9W - and at 35 kts.

[hurricaneCW]

What a mess of a system. It'll probably look a lot better during its transition.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I think that's a small vortex rotating around a much larger low center. Obs indicate northerly winds just west of Grand Cayman Island in another vortex.

Thank you Wxman57!
That is my thinking lately as well.

Or, maybe not. Hard to tell with this depression. Models initialized at 21.2N/82.9W - and at 35 kts.

it's moving north with a slight movement to the nnw jog/wobble?

[Blown Away]

Looks like the storm is slowly tightening, with some sort of banding forming inland Cuba:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

I agree, the deep convection is building SE very near the LLC.

[wxman57]

it's moving north with a slight movement to the nnw jog/wobble?

Don't try to interpret any movement as a track shift at this point. It's so poorly-defined that center fixes aren't that meaningful. Just step back and look at which way the whole mess is moving.

[chris_fit]

This maybe slightly off topic, but I have never seen a squall line move N/W in Florida...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Is this a sign the front is retreating north a little, hence it would cause Nicole to move more west and slower than forecast?

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like the front is clearly backing up...can see it on Wunderground Wundermap radar. The leading edge is going to back up and impact the Orlando metro area shortly.

SFT

[otowntiger]

wxman57: Are there any reliable models still suggesting more storms to come out of this area next week? It seems no one is talking about that anymore.

I'll let you know in a couple of weeks.

That's a good one. So true.

[LAwxrgal]

Hmm. Models hinted at this last week, we all thought they were off the wall.

Matthew was going to dissipate over CA and Nicole would form in about the same area. Hmm.

[hurricanefloyd5]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al162010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009281826
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
SIXTEEN, AL, L, , , , , 16, 2010, TS, O, 2010092718, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL162010
AL, 16, 2010092712, , BEST, 0, 185N, 855W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 16, 2010092718, , BEST, 0, 190N, 847W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092800, , BEST, 0, 194N, 841W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092806, , BEST, 0, 198N, 835W, 30, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092812, , BEST, 0, 204N, 832W, 30, 1001, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 360, 180, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
AL, 16, 2010092818, , BEST, 0, 212N, 829W, 35, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 250, 0, 0, 1005, 375, 180, 0

[Blown Away]

Getting better organized, seeing convection building NE and SE around the LLC. System not moving much right now.

[otowntiger]

It seems no one is talking about that anymore.

I think everyone is concerned with the more imminent threat.

probably not entirely true as the threat from this one does not look to be very serious, relatively speaking. Just my opinion based on what the models are saying about it not intensifying and moving more to the east of Florida.

[hurricanefloyd5]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1225 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ENHANCED SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND DETERIORATING
BOATING CONDITIONS. INTERESTS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE URGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW.

AFTER THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEPARTS LATE THIS WEEK...HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BUT SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED AS A SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED.