ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

It seems no one is talking about that anymore.

I think everyone is concerned with the more imminent threat.

probably not entirely true as the threat from this one does not look to be very serious, relatively speaking. Just my opinion based on what the models are saying about it not intensifying and moving more to the east of Florida.

You obviously haven't looked at the latest models regarding the track. Looks more west to me. As far as intensity I have to agree that it isn't likely that it will intensify much...

SFT

[wxman57]

Back to TD on the latest model guidance just issued.

Code: Select all

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1844 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN (AL162010) 20100928 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100928  1800   100929  0600   100929  1800   100930  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.2N  82.6W   22.7N  82.4W   24.6N  81.4W   27.3N  79.6W
BAMD    21.2N  82.6W   23.7N  82.1W   27.2N  81.4W   31.4N  80.6W
BAMM    21.2N  82.6W   23.0N  82.1W   25.6N  80.8W   29.4N  79.1W
LBAR    21.2N  82.6W   23.5N  81.9W   27.3N  81.2W   32.2N  80.1W
SHIP        30KTS          35KTS          44KTS          52KTS
DSHP        30KTS          28KTS          39KTS          43KTS


[hurricanefloyd5]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1225 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ENHANCED SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND DETERIORATING
BOATING CONDITIONS. INTERESTS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE URGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW.

AFTER THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEPARTS LATE THIS WEEK...HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BUT SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED AS A SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED.

it appears that the stalled front maybe moving or headed northward now I think?!!!!!

[Vortex]

beginning to tighten...center becoming much better defined just south of the isle of youth...

[cycloneye]

Back to TD on the latest model guidance just issued.

Code: Select all

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1844 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN (AL162010) 20100928 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100928  1800   100929  0600   100929  1800   100930  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.2N  82.6W   22.7N  82.4W   24.6N  81.4W   27.3N  79.6W
BAMD    21.2N  82.6W   23.7N  82.1W   27.2N  81.4W   31.4N  80.6W
BAMM    21.2N  82.6W   23.0N  82.1W   25.6N  80.8W   29.4N  79.1W
LBAR    21.2N  82.6W   23.5N  81.9W   27.3N  81.2W   32.2N  80.1W
SHIP        30KTS          35KTS          44KTS          52KTS
DSHP        30KTS          28KTS          39KTS          43KTS


What happened that they downgraded in minutes?

[invest man]

wxman57 if it is still gaining strength at 36hrs why drop it, especially when the main part will make landfall in the Carolinas?

[Aric Dunn]

it's moving north with a slight movement to the nnw jog/wobble?

Don't try to interpret any movement as a track shift at this point. It's so poorly-defined that center fixes aren't that meaningful. Just step back and look at which way the whole mess is moving.

yeah the whole thing is not moving very much and has not in 2 days.. showing no signs of moving very fast..

[Brent]

Back to TD on the latest model guidance just issued.

Code: Select all

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1844 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN (AL162010) 20100928 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100928  1800   100929  0600   100929  1800   100930  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.2N  82.6W   22.7N  82.4W   24.6N  81.4W   27.3N  79.6W
BAMD    21.2N  82.6W   23.7N  82.1W   27.2N  81.4W   31.4N  80.6W
BAMM    21.2N  82.6W   23.0N  82.1W   25.6N  80.8W   29.4N  79.1W
LBAR    21.2N  82.6W   23.5N  81.9W   27.3N  81.2W   32.2N  80.1W
SHIP        30KTS          35KTS          44KTS          52KTS
DSHP        30KTS          28KTS          39KTS          43KTS


What happened that they downgraded in minutes?

Recon hasn't found anything to support 35 kts or even remotely close...

[plasticup]

Definitely spinning up, but it is still horrendously broad. If it's going to do this, it doesn't have much time!

[hurricanefloyd5]

it's moving north with a slight movement to the nnw jog/wobble?

Don't try to interpret any movement as a track shift at this point. It's so poorly-defined that center fixes aren't that meaningful. Just step back and look at which way the whole mess is moving.

yeah the whole thing is not moving very much and has not in 2 days.. showing no signs of moving very fast..

that front is moving northward right aric and it's pulling this storm on a due northward turn right????????????????/

[Aric Dunn]

yeah the whole thing is not moving very much and has not in 2 days.. showing no signs of moving very fast..

that front is moving northward right aric and it's pulling this storm on a due northward turn right????????????????/

well the trough is retreating a little today... and the TD is not moving much right now. definitely not at 10mph its drifting at best at the moment.

[ColinDelia]

850 mb vorticity

[plasticup]

yeah the whole thing is not moving very much and has not in 2 days.. showing no signs of moving very fast..

that front is moving northward right aric and it's pulling this storm on a due northward turn right????????????????/

well the trough is retreating a little today... and the TD is not moving much right now. definitely not at 10mph its drifting at best at the moment.

The trough will still grab it though, right? The guidance is firmly affixed to that.

[ObsessedMiami]

yeah the whole thing is not moving very much and has not in 2 days.. showing no signs of moving very fast..

that front is moving northward right aric and it's pulling this storm on a due northward turn right????????????????/

well the trough is retreating a little today... and the TD is not moving much right now. definitely not at 10mph its drifting at best at the moment.

What the heck is going on here?

[SueC]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1225 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ENHANCED SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND DETERIORATING
BOATING CONDITIONS. INTERESTS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE URGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW.

AFTER THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEPARTS LATE THIS WEEK...HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BUT SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED AS A SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED.

it appears that the stalled front maybe moving or headed northward now I think?!!!!!

I live just NNW of Tampa and for the past few days our storms have been moving from southwest towards the northeast. This afternoon I notice they are coming towards us from the southeast. Would this be a result of the Depression being pulled up by the front?

[cyclonic chronic]

the front is definately moving north. we just got socked with an inch or so of rain in the last couple hours, i looked at the radar and yep it's a line like we get from fronts in the winter, not the blobs like in summer from daytime heating. never seen one move north with that much rain and crazy lightning. what will a retreating front do to track? it might let up on the shear a bit and allow for intensification? it looks like convection is firing closer to the center and started shortly after the front started retreating. would it now be a warm front? this is a srazy setup.

[Aric Dunn]

well the trough is retreating a little today... and the TD is not moving much right now. definitely not at 10mph its drifting at best at the moment.

The trough will still grab it though, right? The guidance is firmly affixed to that.

oh yeah it will pick it up but may take just a little longer than forecast again. the models every run are slightly slower also this is a very large system that has to fit through a very small area between the strong ridge to the east and the trough to NW. It will likely take more time.

[Rainband]

Mother nature at her best

[hurricanefloyd5]

could we see a possible hurricane then

[srainhoutx]

we could see a possible hurricane then

Based on what may I ask?