ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

28/1745 UTC 20.8N 83.2W ST2.5 16L

tropical storm intensity and subtropical looking

Probably Nicole @ 5pm Sandy... get ready for the news barrage tonight!

I think the NHC will go by what RECON is finding.

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone has situated itself directly over the center.

I think a good ramp up is in store until it makes landfall.

[SouthDadeFish]

Now my question is.. what is considered the "real" storm.. IR or visible? I was always under the impression that visable overruled IR?

They both play important roles. Visible is very helpful determining where the center of circulation is in poorly organized storms, while IR is a great tool to see trends in the convection such as warming and cooling.

[GCANE]

Big jump in 850mb vorticity intensity.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... rod=vor850

[Blown Away]

28/1745 UTC 20.8N 83.2W ST2.5 16L

tropical storm intensity and subtropical looking

This position is .3 west and .2 south of the previous spot?

[chris_fit]

Big jump in 850mb vorticity intensity.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... rod=vor850

What exactly is vorticity and what does it do?

[ronjon]

The rain moving NW over the FL peninsula is moisture being pumped up from the TD and colliding with the decaying frontal boundary. If it was purely frontal, it would be moving from SW to NE - instead it's moving from SE to NW as its entrained within the broad circulation of the cyclone. PW's are near record high values close to 3 inches. Add some daytime heating you have some heavy storms.

[HURAKAN]

28/1745 UTC 20.8N 83.2W ST2.5 16L

tropical storm intensity and subtropical looking

This position is .3 west and .2 south of the previous spot?

28/1745 UTC 20.8N 83.2W ST2.5 16L -- Atlantic
28/1145 UTC 21.0N 82.8W ST1.5 96L -- Atlantic

[cyclonic chronic]

cuban radar shows a very disorganized system, tho there is more banding in the last few frames closer to the "center". also isle of youth radar down, that would've been perfect if it was up. but not much convection near there so maybe not.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... p200Km.gif

[Rainband]

The rain moving NW over the FL peninsula is moisture being pumped up from the TD and colliding with the decaying frontal boundary. If it was purely frontal, it would be moving from SW to NE - instead it's moving from SE to NW as its entrained within the broad circulation of the cyclone. PW's are near record high values close to 3 inches. Add some daytime heating you have some heavy storms.

pressures here have tanked since noon

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLNEWPO1

[hurricanefloyd5]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
414 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FORECAST TO
BRING HEAVY RAIN IN SQUALLS TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...

FLZ045>047-053-058-147-292100-
/O.EXB.KMLB.FA.A.0001.100928T2014Z-100929T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-OSCEOLA-OKEECHOBEE-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ORLANDO...SANFORD...MELBOURNE...
PALM BAY...KISSIMMEE...ST CLOUD...OKEECHOBEE...TITUSVILLE
414 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...NORTHERN BREVARD...
OKEECHOBEE...ORANGE...OSCEOLA...SEMINOLE AND SOUTHERN BREVARD.

* THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

* TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND
IS FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES.

* SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES. REPEATED MOVEMENT OF SQUALLS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGING
2 TO 4 INCHES IN THIS AREA. THIS ON TOP OF THE REPORTED 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME SPOTS OF THE
WATCH AREA.

RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE MOVES OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND ANY EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK WOULD KEEP HIGHER
AMOUNTS OFFSHORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

[gatorcane]

Anti-cyclone has situated itself directly over the center.

I think a good ramp up is in store until it makes landfall.

Wow, how much do you think?

[CronkPSU]

Also here in central florida there are already reports of 5 to almost 7 inches of rain in brevard county..

Aric,

Here in Altamonte Springs (just north of Orlando), the sky has turned pitch black and the street lights have turned on. Very ominous looking.

your right cause I live there too wow

same here in apopka and the sky just opened up...crazy out there

[GCANE]

Big jump in 850mb vorticity intensity.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... rod=vor850

What exactly is vorticity and what does it do?

Vorticity is the measure of how much the air circulates counter-clockwise around a point.

The faster it spins counter-clockwise, the higher the vorticity.

A more advanced concept is potential vorticity (PV).

It is used to understand how systems move thru the atmosphere and spin faster or slower when they enter changes in the overall height of the troposphere.

It exploits the conservation of angular momemtum (conservation of PV) and is where the analogy of the spinning skater comes in.

If fact, I am now seeing a defined PV signature at the 340K potential temp level.

A clear indicator it is organizing and strengthening.

[Aric Dunn]

Anti-cyclone has situated itself directly over the center.

I think a good ramp up is in store until it makes landfall.

Wow, how much do you think?

well the upper environment could stay marginal .. but the little bit of dry air trying to make its way to the NW carrib may hold it in check ... but its having a hard to making all the way.. so we could still see a very strong TS per the GFDL or even minimal hurricane if it stays in the NW carrib long enough..

[wxman57]

Anti-cyclone has situated itself directly over the center.

I think a good ramp up is in store until it makes landfall.

Wow, how much do you think?

I see an upper-level trof digging southeast across the southeastern Gulf into the NW Caribbean. That won't make for a favorable environment for purely tropical development. This system lacks a core of convection, so it cannot strengthen very quickly. And it may still have no core when it passes Florida. So don't look for rapid intensification before it merges with the front in 48 hours or so.

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone has situated itself directly over the center.

I think a good ramp up is in store until it makes landfall.

Wow, how much do you think?

Outflow channels look good too.

Maybe strong TS, weak Cat 1.

A stiff hot-tower would nail it.

[Tropics Guy]

First big rain squall just came through here in Miami from the SE, measured 40 mph gust & backyard barometer falling at 29.72".............

TG

[otowntiger]

Anti-cyclone has situated itself directly over the center.

I think a good ramp up is in store until it makes landfall.

Don't you think that the 'little' land mass called Cuba might have something to say about that?

[Blown Away]

Anti-cyclone has situated itself directly over the center.

I think a good ramp up is in store until it makes landfall.

Wow, how much do you think?

well the upper environment could stay marginal .. but the little bit of dry air trying to make its way to the NW carrib may hold it in check ... but its having a hard to making all the way.. so we could still see a very strong TS per the GFDL or even minimal hurricane if it stays in the NW carrib long enough..

The recent model shift towards the SW Coast of FL could allow TD16 to travel over the narrowest and flatter Cuba and spend more time over water moving towards SW FL. We will have to see how the NHC reacts to the west model shift. I bet a west shift in the track going over the Keys, in over the Everglades, and exit near Vero!!