ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[caneseddy]

Anti-cyclone has situated itself directly over the center.

I think a good ramp up is in store until it makes landfall.

Don't you think that the 'little' land mass called Cuba might have something to say about that?

If it tracks more west, it would travel over the western and flatter part of Cuba which does not have as many tall mountains as the central and eastern Cuba as BA stated...all speculation right now

By the way, we are getting drenched here in Fort Lauderdale where I am working now

[cpdaman]

anyone who lookes at the GOM water vapor and thinks a storm will "ramp up" trackin north from where our TD is.. ......(with no core to speak) of and cuba to the north......is someone i'd like to place a bit of a wager with....i don't see anything more than 45-50 (tops) happening.

[ronjon]

TPA RADAR - strong storms over the peninsula.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=tbw&product=NTP&overlay=11101111&loop=no

[Aquawind]

anyone who lookes at the GOM water vapor and thinks a storm will get stronger trackin north from where our TD is.. ......(with no core to speak) of and cuba to the north......is someone i'd like to place a bit of a wager with.

I think wxman57 stated things pretty well on the prior page..

[GCANE]

Sounds like "good ramp-up" can become very subjective.

I'll try and be a little more objective.

[plasticup]

The storm picking up to the north now; the trough has gotten a hold of it. Even as the storm is forming, you can see the pull that will inevitably lead to its death.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

First big rain squall just came through here in Miami from the SE, measured 40 mph gust & backyard barometer falling at 29.72"

That would be a product of the vertical shear and near 2.3" PWATS + strong daytime heating. No effect from the TD reaching FL as yet.

[northjaxpro]

anyone who lookes at the GOM water vapor and thinks a storm will "ramp up" trackin north from where our TD is.. ......(with no core to speak) of and cuba to the north......is someone i'd like to place a bit of a wager with....i don't see anything more than 45-50 (tops) happening.

I agree with you. TD 16 is a very lopsided system. I can't see it consolidating tightly to "ramp up". As the models have indicated , this will turn into a wet nor'easter all the way up the East Coast. However, I am hoping the recent trend of the models bending the track westward will cease because a potentially dangerous flooding situation looms big in Eastern N.C. in the Wilmington area. If the track bends westward, it would spell terrible news to an already drenched area up there and it also would bring more heavy rain potential over portions of peninsula Florida as well.

[CrazyC83]

Do we have a brand new center well to the southeast or just a mesovortex?

[Aquawind]

First big rain squall just came through here in Miami from the SE, measured 40 mph gust & backyard barometer falling at 29.72"

That would be a product of the vertical shear and near 2.3" PWATS + strong daytime heating. No effect from the TD reaching FL as yet.

Exactly.. The front caused a tornado warning yesterday so clearly it has some energy..
If a solid core with the key stuff called convection organizes..we could be surprised but, at this point it's not even close..

[Evil Jeremy]

Still a TD @ 5.

[GCANE]

Latest core:

[plasticup]

no upgrade = no surprise

[Wthrman13]

Big jump in 850mb vorticity intensity.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... rod=vor850

What exactly is vorticity and what does it do?

Vorticity is the measure of how much the air circulates counter-clockwise around a point.

The faster it spins counter-clockwise, the higher the vorticity.

A more advanced concept is potential vorticity (PV).

It is used to understand how systems move thru the atmosphere and spin faster or slower when they enter changes in the overall height of the troposphere.

It exploits the conservation of angular momemtum (conservation of PV) and is where the analogy of the spinning skater comes in.

If fact, I am now seeing a defined PV signature at the 340K potential temp level.

A clear indicator it is organizing and strengthening.

A minor quibble: vorticity can either be counter-clockwise (cyclonic in the NH) or clockwise (anticyclonic in the NH). Positive values by convention indicate counterclockwise rotation or shear and negative values indicate clockwise rotation or shear.

Vorticity in itself is a diagnostic quantity and doesn't have predictive value. It is immensely useful for understanding atmospheric flow behavior (as well as any fluid's behavior, for that matter), however.

Edited to remove image from quote.

[sunnyday]

I still feel that there will not be much wind/rain in SE Fl. This is not a forecast of a forecast of any kind.

[jhpigott]

NAM back to spitting out potentially historic QPF numbers... going to need a boat on portions of 95 if this verifies
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060m.gif

[CrazyC83]

NAM back to spitting out potentially historic QPF numbers... going to need a boat on portions of 95 if this verifies
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060m.gif

That better not push west or I might need a boat and I have had nearly 11 inches of rain in September.

[plasticup]

I still feel that there will not be much wind/rain in SE Fl. This is not a forecast of a forecast of any kind.

You may not get a terrible amount of wind, but I'll be shocked if you don't get some serious rain.

[cpdaman]

I still feel that there will not be much wind/rain in SE Fl. This is not a forecast of a forecast of any kind.

i think miami , ft laudy, wpb will get between 3-10 inches of rain between mid afternoon today and thursday noon.

[Aric Dunn]

very strange recon.. showing what appears to be a more intense Vort well SE of the advisory position.. with sfmr readings in the 40kt + range.. ?? not sure what to make of it yet..