ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

The center is even farther west and south than the 5pm advisory.....

What supports this?

RECON fixes

[TheBurn]

[Recurve]

Pressure down to nearly 29.6 in Key Largo, steadily lowering.

[srainhoutx]

29.59 in Key West/Boca Chica NAS and holding steady.

[hurricanedude]

will likely need STORM warnings for the NC/VA/MD/DE coasts in the next 24 hours. I suspect sustained gale force winds 30-40 mph...with frequent storm force gusts...at or above 55mph.
This is more likely a powerful noreaster for the mid-atlantic which will be more severe than even a cat 1 cane.....residents of these areas know what i mean. I also expect COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS and HEAVY SURF ADVISORIES. If the storm takes the path similar to forecast tides could run as much as 6 feet above normal which is WIDESPREAD MODERATE AND LOCAL MAJOR FLOODING especially east facing shores of the Chesapeake Bay, and the NWS AKQ. suggests waves 15 FEET or more. add a foot of rain this will only aggrevate coastal flooding. so when all and said...a min. cat 1 cane swiftly moving up the coast would have been the best option for us in the mid atlantic.

By no means an OFFICIAL FORECAST....just a resident of the midatlantic for 30 yrs and seen many systems like this evolve.

[wxman57]

The center is even farther west and south than the 5pm advisory.....

What supports this?

RECON fixes

That may be "a center" but it looks like a small vortex rotating southward on the western side of the broad low. Satellite shows the whole mass of clouds elongating northward as the trof digs into the NW Caribbean and lifts it out.

[Bocadude85]

The center is even farther west and south than the 5pm advisory.....

What supports this?

RECON fixes

So where is the center exactly?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

So where is the center exactly?

Broad but seems to be close to the Isle of Youth.

[FLpanhandle91]

Seems to me the center is around 21.5/81.5 and moving northeast...

edit: IR and visible seem to show two different centers. haha. strange..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[MGC]

Other than flooding rains in south Florida, I think the best bet for a wind event will be in NC. There is just no pressure gradient to produce any significent wind in south Fla. Might get some gusts in the heavier showers.....MGC

[Emmett_Brown]

I dont see much movement at the moment... appears to be basically stationary. Even though the IR presentation is really poor, the vis shows the broad center rather nicely S of the Isle of Youth.

[SunnyFla]

FYI, schools in Palm Beach County will be open tomorrow.

Unless the storm is upgraded. If the storm upgrades to a TS the county will/can not send school buses out on the roads.

[lester]

Estimated rainfall so far in south florida

[jpigott]

Estimated rainfall so far in south florida

looks like so far the sweet spot is NE Palm Beach County.

[HURAKAN]

winds

[Aric Dunn]

I dont see much movement at the moment... appears to be basically stationary. Even though the IR presentation is really poor, the vis shows the broad center rather nicely S of the Isle of Youth.

yeah still stationary..

[jpigott]

I dont see much movement at the moment... appears to be basically stationary. Even though the IR presentation is really poor, the vis shows the broad center rather nicely S of the Isle of Youth.

yeah still stationary..

TD16 does not appear to be in any rush to leave the confines of the NW Carib.

[cpdaman]

21.9 81.2

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html