ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[wxman57]

I don't think you can say it's stationary. Step way back and look at a satellite loop of the whole western Atlantic Basin and you can see the moisture streaming northward across Cuba now as the upper trof digs into the NW Caribbean. There may be a slow-moving weak vortex by the Isle of Pines but the clouds around it are streaming northward, leaving it behind. It may never get its act together before shear rips it apart.

[FLpanhandle91]

21.9 81.2

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

yep

[Aric Dunn]

I don't think you can say it's stationary. Step way back and look at a satellite loop of the whole western Atlantic Basin and you can see the moisture streaming northward across Cuba now as the upper trof digs into the NW Caribbean. There may be a slow-moving weak vortex by the Isle of Pines but the clouds around it are streaming northward, leaving it behind. It may never get its act together before shear rips it apart.

well convection is forming and blowing away, from recon and satellite the even the mean center of the broad circ has not moved much pretty much in the same spot. I hear what your saying but in this case the LLC even though broad is still what needs to tracked..

[Bocadude85]

NHC says center relocated to the east.. now at 21.4n 82.0w

[HURAKAN]

It has come a long way from yesterday and the day before. I guess Nicole could form tomorrow.

[Emmett_Brown]

Might be my eyes playing tricks, but it looks like another center is spinning up down at 18N 83W... not the main center, but interesting to look at...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[tgenius]

I am getting the feeling this will be another Bonnie with No rain and wind.. a non-event for SFL.

[ObsessedMiami]

FYI, schools in Palm Beach County will be open tomorrow.

Unless the storm is upgraded. If the storm upgrades to a TS the county will/can not send school buses out on the roads.

Not to veer off the topic at hand, but I remember a TS (maybe Fay?) where Dade County rolled the buses despite gusts to 40.

[blp]

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

Amazing how the background pressures are distorting the situation. 997 MB is pretty low for a weak T.D.

[Bocadude85]

I am getting the feeling this will be another Bonnie with No rain and wind.. a non-event for SFL.

Im starting to think we wont even get much rain

[SouthDadeFish]

The relocation to the east might save the east coast of Florida from a few inches of rain.

[Aric Dunn]

The relocation to the east might save the east coast of Florida from a few inches of rain.

there is no data for the east location recon never made a pass as it was leaving .. next recon is at 315Z

[blp]

Well by 2am should be on the north coast of Cuba getting ready to exit. Seems a little fast, lets see if that verifies....

[cpdaman]

FYI, schools in Palm Beach County will be open tomorrow.

Unless the storm is upgraded. If the storm upgrades to a TS the county will/can not send school buses out on the roads.

Not to veer off the topic at hand, but I remember a TS (maybe Fay?) where Dade County rolled the buses despite gusts to 40.

what is the big deal with gusts to 40?....you could get that from a strong high pressure system....a million kids will be going to school in winds of at least that magnitude when the first arctic cold front blows thru the midwest/ northeast....and calling off school will not even be in the decision set for superintendents.

[Aric Dunn]

Well by 2am should be on the north coast of Cuba getting ready to exit. Seems a little fast let see if that verifies....

[img]http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/data/maps/N_ADV_02.png[/im]

very unlikely..

[SeaBrz_FL]

yeah still stationary..

And this was my major fear with this system - stall. That was disappointing, but I didn't expect to see it crash into the equally stalled cold front that has generated record-breaking rainfall today in Central Florida (Orlando Int'l Airport for one). Here on the CFL coast, we've had between 6-8 inches already today between Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral with another inch or two predicted before the end of the night. Inland Brevard has already had 8-9 inches of rain today.

Again, this is not directly due to TD 16 only, but a combination of the trop moisture from that storm hitting the front. I do have to say though that, after 50 years of storms, this is the first time that I can ever remember hearing thunder and seeing lightning for an entire day. Weird result of neither weather system giving up I guess.

Give me the winds of a quick moving Cat 2 or lower any day; IMHO, it is much less stressful than watching possible building flood water.

Breaking news: new tornado warning just issued for Sebastian/Palm Bay/Barefoot Bay (south Brevard). Crashing fronts suck.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah still stationary..

And this was my major fear with this system - stall. That was disappointing, but I didn't expect to see it crash into the equally stalled cold front that has generated record-breaking rainfall today in Central Florida (Orlando Int'l Airport for one). Here on the CFL coast, we've had between 6-8 inches already today between Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral with another inch or two predicted before the end of the night. Inland Brevard has already had 8-9 inches of rain today.

Again, this is not directly due to TD 16 only, but a combination of the trop moisture from that storm hitting the front. I do have to say though that, after 50 years of storms, this is the first time that I can ever remember hearing thunder and seeing lightning for an entire day. Weird result of neither weather system giving up I guess.

Give me the winds of a quick moving Cat 2 or lower any day; IMHO, it is much less stressful than watching possible building flood water.

Breaking news: new tornado warning just issued for Sebastian/Palm Bay/Barefoot Bay (south Brevard). Crashing fronts suck.

yeah tornado headed my way.. doppler velocities are impressive... a lot of rotation.. on multiple cells heading on shore..

[kevin]

Florida is nothing but sand. It floods for what, a few minutes and then the dirt is dry.

[Aric Dunn]

what i can see happening is some deep convection possibly develop over the florida straights tonight and a new low form there... the models do seem to develop a second low..

[alienstorm]

As the system move NNE and exits Cuba we could see the center tigthen up and have a 50 MPH TS. Additionally all the moisture will swing up north and around the center from the east.

By no means should this be taken lightly when we are looking at potentially a major flooding event as it moves up the state.