ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[blp]

Either pressures are crazy low in all the NW Caribbean or maybe I am seeing another vorticity spinning around. Ship below keeps reporting 997 MB last 4 hours and is over 145 nautical miles away from the LLC to the SW. I guess could be just how large this broad low is.....

Celebrity Solstice

Last reported at 2010-Sep-28 23:00 UTC. Time now 2010-Sep-29 00:19 UTC.
Position N 20°00', W 084°12'.

Wind from 340 at 17 knots

Waves 1.0 meters (3 feet), 3 second period

Barometer 997.0 mb
Air temperature 27.0 ° C
Visibility: greater than 2.2 NM
Dewpoint 24.3 ° C
Water temperature 29.0 ° C

EDIT: I think I answered my question. It looks like it is low throughout the NW Caribbean. Wow impressive...

[kevin]

Either pressures are crazy low in all the NW Caribbean or maybe I am seeing another vorticity spinning around. Ship below keeps reporting 997 MB last 4 hours and is over 145 nautical miles away from the LLC to the SW. I guess could be just how large this broad low is.....

Celebrity Solstice

Last reported at 2010-Sep-28 23:00 UTC. Time now 2010-Sep-29 00:19 UTC.
Position N 20°00', W 084°12'.

Wind from 340 at 17 knots

Waves 1.0 meters (3 feet), 3 second period

Barometer 997.0 mb
Air temperature 27.0 ° C
Visibility: greater than 2.2 NM
Dewpoint 24.3 ° C
Water temperature 29.0 ° C

Yeah the 997mb ship reading grabbed my attention. Its strange to have pressures this low and broad.

[cpdaman]

what i can see happening is some deep convection possibly develop over the florida straights tonight and a new low form there... the models do seem to develop a second low..

that sounds like a plan to me.....probably some type of hybrid storm...no? this thing probably has the biggest threat to the carolina's b/c it won't have it's act together for florida IMO aside from a foot plus of rain.

also there will probably be another low or two getting its act together down "there" over the next 5 days .

[Normandy]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8ir.html

The overall gyre is quite impressive and pressures remain almost equally low across the entire NW Caribbean. I can see why the models keep spitting TC's out with this pattern setting up in the Carribean. Winds all across the GOM are now veering SSE.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 16, 2010092900, , BEST, 0, 214N, 821W, 30, 997, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

A 997mb TD.

[hurricaneCW]

I think if this had a few days over the water, we could have seen a monster hurricane form. The pressures are ridiculously low and very widespread, the circulation is massive. Over time it would probably focus on one area and then rapidly develop into a huge storm, but luckily that will not be the case with this system.

However there will be multiple opportunities in that region, plus we have other waves further east that could develop as well.

[cpdaman]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8ir.html

The overall gyre is quite impressive and pressures remain almost equally low across the entire NW Caribbean. I can see why the models keep spitting TC's out with this pattern setting up in the Carribean. Winds all across the GOM are now veering SSE.

yes yes yes but what are you talking about SSE winds?

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

ZCDP8 - MARITIME-ship
Tuesday Sep. 28 - 23:00 UTC
Air Temperature: 86°F
Dewpoint: 74°F
Wind: ESE at 36 mph
Pressure: 1002.3 mb
Weather: Cloudy
Wave Height: 2 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 84.2°F

Strong winds in the squalls over the Florida Strait

[Macrocane]

That's why IMO the pressure shouldn't be a parameter to say that a storm is tronger than another because if that was the case TD 16 would be stronger than several tropical storms.

[Aquawind]

what i can see happening is some deep convection possibly develop over the florida straights tonight and a new low form there... the models do seem to develop a second low..

that sounds like a plan to me.....probably some type of hybrid storm...no? this thing probably has the biggest threat to the carolina's b/c it won't have it's act together for florida IMO aside from a foot plus of rain.

also there will probably be another low or two getting its act together down "there" over the next 5 days .

Looking at the radar out of Key West and you can see the direction of the cells is changing to reflect low pressure developing south..clearly not the same direction we have seen all day..

[blp]

That convection west of Jamaica just won't give up.... I find no evidence of any LLC over there but it keeps humming away. I imagine that has to be robbing the energy from the core of the T.D. It needs to create some separation from this blowup.

[cycloneye]

blp, that area near Jamaica if it persists, with time, may try to organize after the TD is gone from the NW Caribbean.

[blp]

Your right we had a couple models showing that being the area that get's left behind.

blp, that area near Jamaica if it persists, with time, may try to organize after the TD is gone from the NW Caribbean.

[SootyTern]

So what happens more easily; a blob of convection starts to spin or a naked swirl gains convection? Been wondering this for awhile.

[Aric Dunn]

Some convection is beginning to fire near the LLC south of Isle of youth... which area will win out... that is the question.. ill be back later ...

[sunnyday]

Is there a valid reason to expect this mess to turn into Nicole? If so, when possibly? Thank you for answering.

[plasticup]

There is so much craziness in the Caribbean that we are sure to see a monster come out of it soon, but it's not going to be this guy! The models are suggesting that after 16/Nicole moves out, another system may come out of this broad disturbance with more time to develop.

[psyclone]

well i didn't think it was possible but this system just continues to look worse with time. you really need a serious pair of tropical beer goggles to love this mess. she ain't easy on the eyes. we still have some interesting weather to observe, specifically the flood threat and marginal severe wx threat on the east coast but tropically speaking this is a snoozer. i suspect it won't even garner a name before florida, if ever. and i continue to stick with my earlier call of no observed ts conditions in florida. as always i could be wrong but considering what could happen this time of year it looks like mother nature has given us a pass.

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[Aric Dunn]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[cpdaman]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010

winds pickin up on the outer canaveral bouy out of the NNE for the last two hours ....winds about 25mph sustained....pressure steady