ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

The local mets are saying this is going to be out of here by tomorrow. I don't see it moving.

[Bear]

I think this "sheared mess" has a good chance of skipping by S FL to the east.....

[ObsessedMiami]

I think this "sheared mess" has a good chance of skipping by S FL to the east.....

Bryan Norcross said pretty much the same thing

[cpdaman]

I think this "sheared mess" has a good chance of skipping by S FL to the east.....

Bryan Norcross said pretty much the same thing

well that could be bad for the carolina's and up the east coast.

[psyclone]

well if the system maintains its current shape most of the most intense weather would miss florida to the east since the convection over and just west of jamaica represents the worst weather. then again, that convective complex is so far removed from the center, i wonder if it would even follow the center when it eventually moves north. i haven't a clue. i'm kinda shocked this system is being carried as a tropical cyclone.

[Patrick99]

This is going to be a HUGE forecast bust in terms of rainfall. We're going to get nothing, I can feel it. All the significant weather is well to the east of the center of circulation. Even if the center passes right over us, we'll get nothing.

[AdamFirst]

This is going to be a HUGE forecast bust in terms of rainfall. We're going to get nothing, I can feel it. All the significant weather is well to the east of the center of circulation. Even if the center passes right over us, we'll get nothing.

Better to be safe than sorry...

[SeaBrz_FL]

Florida is nothing but sand. It floods for what, a few minutes and then the dirt is dry.

Yeah, used to to be, until a bunch of people discovered paradise and covered the whole place with concrete and asphalt.

Back on topic ...

Barometric pressure back up here on the coast, but winds are also increasing again. Just tried to take the dog for a walk (who promptly stuck his nose out the garage door and refused) and got hit by some really strong gusts. Sustained winds right now over 45 mph:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLCOCOA3

[Boriken]

Is the center over land?
Is so hard to find in this radar view

[hurricanefloyd5]

a new low forming west of sarasota florida


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[hurricanefloyd5]

Is the center over land?
Is so hard to find in this radar view

the center looks to be moving westward right

[gatorcane]

I think this "sheared mess" has a good chance of skipping by S FL to the east.....

Bryan Norcross said pretty much the same thing

If you look back at my forecast, that is what I called for a couple of days ago. Miss to the east.

I think the most rain we are going to get here is from the cold front not this tropical system. Is it September or December out there....what a trough. 2010 is the season of troughs.....

[cpdaman]

Florida is nothing but sand. It floods for what, a few minutes and then the dirt is dry.

Yeah, used to to be, until a bunch of people discovered paradise and covered the whole place with concrete and asphalt.

Back on topic ...

Barometric pressure back up here on the coast, but winds are also increasing again. Just tried to take the dog for a walk (who promptly stuck his nose out the garage door and refused) and got hit by some really strong gusts. Sustained winds right now over 45 mph:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLCOCOA3

u must have meant 25mph? there is no sustained over TS force ...that's fo' sho'

[Evil Jeremy]

a new low forming west of sarasota florida


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Makes no sense. There is a through parked over that area, and nothing is showing up on the radar.

[psyclone]

well as long as there's a low new convection could fire up and dump heavy rain so it's still worth watching.

[AtlanticWind]

It looks like a lot of energy is going to get left behind in the carribean , so I do see the the GFS solution panning out with amew formation in afew days.

[Evil Jeremy]

I guess it will remain a TD at 11. DMAX will be important for 16's future. I think the NHC will lower the intensity forecast to 35KT max.

[gatorcane]

It looks like a lot of energy is going to get left behind in the carribean , so I do see the the GFS solution panning out with amew formation in afew days.

yes but the GFS low a week from now looks like it keeps getting pushed more and more SE of Florida....as troughiness hangs around the Eastern CONUS and Western Atlantic for days and says....

When all is said and done it's quite possible none of these tropical systems make any significant impact.

[SeaBrz_FL]

u must have meant 25mph? there is no sustained over TS force ...that's fo' sho'

Right, sorry ... meant km/h. ~28 mph. Just drove home from the corner store - calm/windy/calm.

[hurricanefloyd5]

a new low forming west of sarasota florida


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Makes no sense. There is a through parked over that area, and nothing is showing up on the radar.

I mean fort meyers/naples