ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[SouthFloridawx]

Current Radar...

[AtlanticWind]

It looks like a lot of energy is going to get left behind in the carribean , so I do see the the GFS solution panning out with amew formation in afew days.

yes but the GFS low a week from now looks like it keeps getting pushed more and more SE of Florida....as troughiness hangs around the Eastern CONUS and Western Atlantic for days and says....

When all is said and done it's quite possible none of these tropical systems make any significant impact.

If you look at the GFS it keeps in the carribean pushed east and then back west.

[Evil Jeremy]

a new low forming west of sarasota florida


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Makes no sense. There is a through parked over that area, and nothing is showing up on the radar.

I mean fort meyers/naples

Again, look at this through. No low can form in that environment. I can't tell what your seeing that leads you to think a low is forming:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-l.jpg

[gatorcane]

Here's the NWS point forecast for coastal Palm Beach county. Lot's of wind. Will be interesting if it really gets that windy though:

Wednesday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Periods of rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 85. East wind 26 to 31 mph increasing to between 32 and 37 mph. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... tType=text

[jpigott]

Local weather here in NE Palm Beach County reporting 3 inches of rain have fallen so far and gusts up to 40-45 mph in the last squall that just past through

[AtlanticWind]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

You can see the rain heading up our way.

[kevin]

Any chance the circulation is able to pull in the convection near Jamaica?

[HeatherAKC]

I don't even know what to think of this mess! Currently VERY still here in NW Dade. Not a breath of breeze to be found. .09 inches of rain today. My novice barometer is at 1006 and falling. It's all realtive anyway. The point is that it is falling. I have a neighbor across the lake who has pulled his shutters closed on the first floor, school is in tomorrow, and I have not done ONE THING to prep for this. Going with "gut" on this for now. I don't know what to think here!

*Keeps a cautious eye to the SW*

[SootyTern]

This is going to be a HUGE forecast bust in terms of rainfall. We're going to get nothing, I can feel it. All the significant weather is well to the east of the center of circulation. Even if the center passes right over us, we'll get nothing.

Somebody somewhere in FL is going to get some rain between the front & the tropical mess, but it could skip a particular area too, so it seems like a bust. We've had hardly a drop in south Dade today but a mass is approaching from the south tonight. Think some areas in central FL have gotten 8 inches today as the tropical moisture hits the stalled front. I am thinking the forecast for tropical storm conditions (winds) tomorrow will bust, however.

[wxman57]

I keep seeing the various models indicating a string of lows from near Cuba to the Carolinas in 24 hrs. Maybe they're right? Trof is digging into the NW Caribbean carrying the moisture north at a good clip. Maybe the low will elongate into several centers over the next 24 hrs. Seems reasonable. I just don't see how it can consolidate given the upper-level winds across it.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html
There's not much of a center but whatever is there is not moving much and maybe drifting east.

[SFLcane]

Here's the NWS point forecast for coastal Palm Beach county. Lot's of wind. Will be interesting if it really gets that windy though:

Wednesday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Periods of rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 85. East wind 26 to 31 mph increasing to between 32 and 37 mph. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... tType=text

If there is some TS force winds across SFL it could be very well be confined to coastal regions.

[AtlanticWind]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

The GFDL does this all over again after TD 16.

[cycloneye]

We have a models thread.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rb.html

Seems like this area might be splitting , one low about to move over cuba another lagging back in the carribean.

[wxman57]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rb.html

Seems like this area might be splitting , one low about to move over cuba another lagging back in the carribean.

That's what the models are forecasting. Moisture is definitely streaming north across Cuba.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rb.html
Seems like this area might be splitting , one low about to move over cuba another lagging back in the carribean.

That's what the models are forecasting. Moisture is definitely streaming north across Cuba.

Definitely some banding features developing North of Cube.

[Bear]

One thing is for sure....CA waters getting somewhat of a "cool down"? from this system...not quite upwelling for a projected next system?

[plasticup]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rb.html

Seems like this area might be splitting , one low about to move over cuba another lagging back in the carribean.

That's what the models are forecasting. Moisture is definitely streaming north across Cuba.

That would be very interesting. Would the lagging low have time/conditions to develop more than poor TD16?

[dwsqos2]

This is such a sad system. I miss Barry of 2007.