ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Raebie]

I'm glad it's sad. Wilmington will be an island if they get any more rain.

[SouthDadeFish]

Why is there such a large discrepancy between Predict data and NHC data? Predict has the center much farther SW than the NHC with an anticyclone just slightly off of the center. That would make things quite different.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=PGI50L&zoom=4&img=1&vars=000000000000000111&loop=0

Go there and click on the shear and vort analysis. What do yall make of this?

[blp]

Obs. over Cuba. No wind shift.

Havana


Vardero

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

The overall pressures everywhere around are very low already due to the trough. The 997 pressure in this guy suggests more like a borderline CAT1 right? There just isn't a gradient so any development is going to be SLOOOOW. The afternoon rain in sofla had nothing to do with this guy, and even the recent squalls are seabreeze and boundary stuff, not tropical bands. The weather entering the keys is likely even less than what it looks like, the radar from both KW and Miami are nearly 100 miles out, so that is like 700mb returns out there. So I'm ready for a wet day tomorrow, and I'm not expecting much else.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[TheDreamTraveler]

Nobody should be here waiting for this thing to wrap itself up and turn into a well formed tropical cyclone. That's why anybody saying this thing is pathetic or is going to bust, needs to wait until this thing actually transitions into an extratropical cyclone.

Florida might experience the least from this storm compared to the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic/Northeast.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Yeah the 997mb ship reading grabbed my attention. Its strange to have pressures this low and broad.

Hmm maybe an almighty massive HYPERCANE is forming!!! These are some of the warmest SST in the world. If I wake up and its Tip redux in my backyard I'm gonna be pissed.

[psyclone]

it is sad and that sadness is even more amusing when considered in the context of the original potential. go back look at the 70 some pages in talkin' tropics before this was declared an invest. i think the whole state was savaged at one point by a major hurricane. long range models are as useless as teats on a boar. of course we all know this but who can resist looking. i'm just as guilty as the next guy. but i always emphasize that weather potential frequently fails to materialize and this event seems to underscore that (i'm speaking from a tropical standpoint as a serious flood threat could still develop, especially from NC northward).

[HURAKAN]

70+ pages in TT and 41 pages in Active Storms = Worth it!

Learn from the storm and stop procrastinating if it's disorganized, or a mess, or sad.

[hurricaneCW]

Whatever the case may be with the storm, and it won't be too much with regards to its strength, the impacts could be very severe for some areas. I'm hoping it at least gets a name so it becomes memorable in the future, rather than "oh remember that depression that caused heavy rain", and most would probably go "huh".

The flooding impacts in the Carolinas could be disastrous especially because of the major flooding already experienced.

[HURAKAN]

Rain moving over South Florida

[Evil Jeremy]

If there is indeed banding forming north of Cuba like it seems on the satellite, perhaps that would lead to the upgrade to TS. That would be able to strengthen the LLC. It just needs slight banding to become steady on the north side.

[Raebie]

The flooding impacts in the Carolinas could be disastrous especially because of the major flooding already experienced.

That's my biggest concern at the moment. One man's bust is another's worst nightmare.

[TheDreamTraveler]

How come the NHC has the center of TD16 around North Carolina at 8 PM on Thursday? My forecast calls for the rain to clear up by that time...nothings really adding up.

[blp]

THERE ARE MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRLS PRESENT...AND THE CENTER
APPEARS TO RE-FORM FROM TIME TO TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION OF 035/7
IS THUS A BIT UNCERTAIN. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY

I found this amusing considering they can't pinpoint the center and they are not sure about the motion but other than that no problem. It seems like they are having as much trouble as we are.

[Raebie]

"We have no idea what this system is doing, but other than that, we're confident in our forecast".

[Bocadude85]

http://img521.imageshack.us/img521/7410/179ifw.jpg

70+ pages in TT and 41 pages in Active Storms = Worth it!

Learn from the storm and stop procrastinating if it's disorganized, or a mess, or sad.

Almost looks like a new LLC is developing down by the Cayman Islands

[SouthDadeFish]

Vorticity analysis supports a center SE of the isle of youth.

[AtlanticWind]

http://img521.imageshack.us/img521/7410/179ifw.jpg

70+ pages in TT and 41 pages in Active Storms = Worth it!

Learn from the storm and stop procrastinating if it's disorganized, or a mess, or sad.

Almost looks like a new LLC is developing down by the Cayman Islands

Like the movie "Groundhog Day" we have to wake up and start over with a system in the carribean.

[psyclone]

things will get a whole lot more interesting if this thing can somehow burst and maintain deep convection near the center. it's amazing how persistent the convection has been near and just west of jamaica.

[Aquawind]

Hmmm we have a TS as it get's off the Cuba coast when we can't even get a single center yet...ookkayyy then..