ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[weatherSnoop]

I'm telling ya, in the end, we will all be commenting on how over-hyped this storm was.....


edit: and when I'm talking about over-hyped, I just mean for Florida...

I have heard it mentioned, though I have heard no real "hype"....just watch and pay attention

[SouthFLTropics]

Rain and convection spilling North across Cuba and into South Florida. The rain is beginning again in my area. The question is...how long will it rain and will the convection train continue. For the time being the answer appears to be yes. We could see some substantial flooding in many low lying areas.

SFT

[blp]

Based on what I am seeing south of Cuba with the increased convection, I see the flooding potential. All that moisture has only one way to go and it is North.

Rain and convection spilling North across Cuba and into South Florida. The rain is beginning again in my area. The question is...how long will it rain and will the convection train continue. For the time being the answer appears to be yes. We could see some substantial flooding in many low lying areas.

SFT

[dekeoy]

And no one here in Wilmington is looking forward to any of the rain after what we just went through.

[floridasun78]

do it look like other low trying form southwest cayman islands if you look this loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-ir4.html you see it that look like strong one and one crossing cuba now if come strong low could send nhc going cazy we need see how it look like later this morning if that case we could see ts

[floridasun78]

other thing before i go bed i see banding in that area too when i look at closeup

[Ladylight]

I'm not a smart man ... but holding a lightning rod while cleaning debris out of swimming pools that will only fill back up with more debris later in the day doesn't sound logical

There is no reason to expect an entire day of storms. We will get waves of them or maybe not.
I would not change my schedule at all if I were your husband. Do what he usually does when he seeing lightning or hears thunder.
Finally, in my opinion; the tornado threat is minimal.

Thanks guys. He does work in summer storms and if the tornado threat isn't huge, he should be okay. Although I think cleaning the pools is kinda futile ...

On another note, it's getting really loud out there right now and woke me up. Really coming down heavy. Hope some are resting through it.

[xironman]

I wish the plane would go south of Cuba, this thing never had a core, and that NE on the Island of Youth is interesting. Maybe the real deal is forming to the south

[Aric Dunn]

well like the models have been saying .. we have two completely separate lows forming ... one shooting off too the NNE ( td 16 ) the other lagging behind.

[xironman]

I am just not seeing any west winds associated with TD 16, everything is east until you get way south. Maybe it will emerge before the plane leaves.

[jlauderdal]

well like the models have been saying .. we have two completely separate lows forming ... one shooting off too the NNE ( td 16 ) the other lagging behind.

gfs and euro have been outstanding in one of the most complex setups i can remember and they continue to shine, moderate rain here, nothing exciting to report

[Bane]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 290853
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
500 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION EMERGING OVER THE FLORIDA STRAIT...HEAVY
RAINS SPREADING ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 81.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR. A MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER THIS MORNING...AND BE NEAR
OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE SURFACE WINDS ARE VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE ON THURSDAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM CUBA AND
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE AFFECTING THE WARNING AREAS
TODAY.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

C6VQ8 - MARITIME-ship
Wednesday Sep. 29 - 6:00 UTC
Air Temperature: 78°F
Wind: S at 40 mph
Pressure: 1005.4 mb
Weather: Mostly cloudy
Sea Surface Temp: 87.4°F

Ship south of eastern Cuba reporting 40 mph winds

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[tgenius]

I haven't seen too much Rain as of yet. I'm assuming it will pick up shortly.

[HURAKAN]

Pressure down to 995.8 mb according to RECON, wow

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[tgenius]

From what it looks like the rain Is a lil behind schedule but once it starts it probably will be raining for awhile.

[Vortmax1]

We've been getting drenched all night last night.
It's raining harder now.
Going to get real soggy here if this keeps up.

[Lowpressure]

Radar filling in rapidly on that loop. Nasty little squall moving near the upper keys.