ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Vortmax1]

Here's the link to the SFWMD radar loop with tracking:


http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... %20loop%29

[HURAKAN]

A lot more convection close to the center

[sfwx]

Pressure down to 995.8 mb according to RECON, wow

1000mb this morning here

[jpigott]

A lot more convection close to the center

Any guesses whether the convection associated with the "center" of TD16 which is down near cuba at the moment will slide east of FL? Stewart sounded pretty convinced the warning areas were going to experience tropical storm force conditions. Granted, it's Stacey Stewart, but I was suprised to read that language - "will experience tropical storm conditions"

[xironman]

What center? This thing is a mess, pressures are lower farther away from the position. No west winds to speak of. More like a surface trough.

[Vortmax1]

45 reports and no VDM?
Was there ever a Vortex yesterday?
I never remember seeing one.

[jpigott]

What center? This thing is a mess, pressures are lower farther away from the position. No west winds to speak of. More like a surface trough.

That's why I put "center" in quotation marks. Stewart seemed a little agressive in his 5am discussion

[HURAKAN]

We need to keep in mind that this is a monsoon-type tropical depression.

This is very common in the WPAC.

[xironman]

You can only have a VDM if you can locate the center, and they can't fly over land to get south of it and close it off.

[Vortmax1]

You can only have a VDM if you can locate the center, and they can't fly over land to get south of it and close it off.

True.
I thought it was far enough off Cuba by now.
I still don't remember seeing one yesterday.

[jpigott]

We need to keep in mind that this is a monsoon-type tropical depression.

This is very common in the WPAC.

Hurakan - What's you gut telling you? You think TD16 interacting with this trough is going to be enough to lift out the convection down south near Jamacia or will some energy be left behind and form another low as indicated by some of the models?

[wxman57]

Stop focusing on a center. This isn't your typical low. No core, no well-defined center to track. Increasing wind shear by the hour, and it'll be interacting with a cold front today. It will be accelerating off to the north today, but most wind/squalls will stay east of the center. Florida will get rain from the front in the area, mostly. No too much wind, though, as there isn't much of a pressure gradient to the north and west. Low pressure will remain in the NW Caribbean behind TD 16, and we may be doing this again in a few days.

[HURAKAN]

We need to keep in mind that this is a monsoon-type tropical depression.

This is very common in the WPAC.

Hurakan - What's you gut telling you? You think TD16 interacting with this trough is going to be enough to lift out the convection down south near Jamacia or will some energy be left behind and form another low as indicated by some of the models?

I'm kind of lost here, center could be south of Cuba where the convection is increasing. Not sure the convection down south will lift but there seems to be a great consensus of another low to develop in the same general area over the next few days. I don't think TD #16 will be the last system in the area.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[jlauderdal]

decent convergence has been setting up on the coast will see how that plays out as the "center" moves in , as a result miami nws just issued this, its actually rather pleasant out now with very light wind and steady rain, there was some flooding on south beach already this morning, .94 in the bucket at my hosue since midnight but that has been over time so nothing to crazy here so far, will post some pics later if the street floods, more shock value than anything since a decent downpour will accumulate water fast on my street:


657 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
ALL URBAN AREAS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WESTWARD TO INTERSTATE 95

* UNTIL 1245 PM EDT

* AT 646 AM EDT...THE COMBINATION OF RECENT SPOTTER REPORTS...MEDIA
REPORTS AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ESTIMATED BY NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE THAT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE
EASTERN COASTAL ZONE AND EXTENDING INLAND ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR COULD RESULT IN URBAN TYPE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...FURTHER
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR AS OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.

[HURAKAN]

1st visible ... popping south of Cuba

[Recurve]

WHAT in heck am I seeing on satellite? Huge bands of convection down in the Carib, and yet the TD is said to be moving into the strait. I know Wxman said don't focus on the center, but since it's supposed to pass over us, I was kind of focused on that. Just concerned that the huge mass of convection down there becomes a hurricane.

Hours of light to moderate rain overnight here in the Upper Keys, radar shows a possible break coming, which is good, Have to go to the office soon and get the paper out today.

Pressure down here about .05 since 8 pm last night, now about 29.54 or so at the Pennekamp station. Same station shows almost 3.5 inches of precip since last night, so the "rain will miss Florida" is clearly not panning out.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[SouthFLTropics]

Holy Smokes that's alot of convection being left behind in the Caribbean. If TD16 doesn't become Nicole I have to think that whatever is left down there will. As this unfolds things continue to get very interesting. Kudos to the GFS and the Euro for sniffing this situation out well in advance. A lot of people didn't believe them but seeing is believing.

SFT